LATEST CORONAL MASS EJECTION TIME OF IMPACT PREDICTION (most powerful since 1989)

Solar-Terrestrial Dispatch ^ | October 28, 2003

[John H K]

Event #49 - 28 October 2003 Issued: 16:30 UTC, 28 October 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class X17.2 Flare in Region 486 at 11:10 UTC on 28 October 2003 Type II: 1250 km/sec Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 2125 km/sec

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 29 October to 21:00 UTC on 29 October Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 08:00 UTC, 29 October 2003 (3 am EST on 29 October) Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 9

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn: SOUTHWARD

IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS The preferred time of arrival is ***TONIGHT***, TUESDAY NIGHT (before you go to bed that night) near or after 3 am Eastern Standard Time). That's 2 am Central Standard Time on TONIGHT. That's 1 am Mountain Standard Time on TONIGHT. That's MIDNIGHT Pacific Standard Time on TONIGHT.

EXPECT RESIDUAL ACTIVITY (LESS INTENSE) TOMMORROW NIGHT (WEDNESDAY, 29 OCT) AS WELL !

EVENT #49 NOTES:

This is the most energetic Earthward-directed event of the solar cycle.

SEVERE to MAJOR geomagnetic storming is expected to abruptly commence following the arrival of the shock front from this flare.

This flare was associated with a Ground-Level Event. It was also associated with very high energy protons at greater than 100 MeV (which are still climbing, over 5 hours after the event began). A magnetic crochet was observed over the daylit sections of the ionosphere. An exceptionally intense shortwave fadeout and polar cap absorption event are in progress. There are reports this event was observed in white-light. Intense radio bursts were associated with this event across the spectrum. The type II shock velocity is not representative of the observed velocity of this CME. The observed velocity as determined by SOHO was 2125 km/sec.

This event has the potential to produce the strongest geomagnetic storm since 1989. Auroral activity could become visible into the deep low latitude regions. This one is worth driving a good long distance over to find clear skies. It has better potential to produce low-latitude aurora than almost any other event observed in the past decade. Keep in mind that it is also possible the disturbance may not be nearly as geoeffective as many would like. It all depends on the character of the magnetic fields imbedded within the coronal mass ejection. However, we believe it will either be very large, or only modestly large in terms of its capacity to produce disturbed geomagnetic and auroral activity. We do not expect this disturbance to be small. These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[John H K]

Not very good timing for the East coast given our weather.

[Consort]

Don't take any chances. Put your head where the sun don't shine.

[LivingNet]

I can never remember...Are you supposed to take your tin-foil hat off during a low-latitude aurora or leave it on??

[Pro-Bush]

We are lucky it wasn't pointed directly at earth!

[Izzy Dunne]

See also SpaceWeather.

[el_chupacabra]

Okay. This isn't funny. Time to 'fess up. Which one of you broke the sun?

[r9etb]

(most powerful since 1989)

I was working a Shuttle mission when this one happened. Heated the atmosphere up pretty good (we had to adjust the atmospheric drag model to account for it), and IIRC they got some great video of the aurora.

[netmilsmom]

Levitate your tin-foil hat three inches above your head so the waves will be defected away from you yet your brains will not fry due to the heat.

No more than three inches.

[Consort]

A properly calibrated tin-foil hat of sufficient gage should suffice.

[LivingNet]

We are SITCOMs-single income, two kids, oppressive mortgage

We are also sitcoms but it stands for "Single income, three kids, oppressive mother-in-law".

[Cold Heat]

These events are continuing and estimated to continue for two weeks or more.

It is unusual for this to happen so soon after a cycle change. This fact has sun observers quite excited, so basically, we are in new territory as far as statistics are concerned.

The events of a few days ago did not have the strength expected, but these things are really hard to predict exactly. All we really know is that it is coming our way. If, by the time it gets here, it is off a degree or two, it is not really the fault of NOAA. It is just hard to predict the impact of a bullet when it is coming in your direction. (no reference points available)

[Lando Lincoln]

Cornal Mass Ejection

That's what I have after my 5th bottle of Corona!

[Alter Kaker]

This is not joke. If satelites I work using fail, could be harmful to security and possibly to peoples life. Scientist who work for me are expressing concern.

[John H K]

I thought they decided the calculations that led to this were in error and an event of much lower magnitude was now expected. Or... did I dream that?

That was last Thursday. This is a totally different flare.

[John H K]

We are lucky it wasn't pointed directly at earth!

This one WAS pointed directly at earth.

[RockChucker]

For Gods sake, leave your Foil Hats ON!!!! Got Foil?

[Orangedog]

To what degree are commercial and military satellites hardend against these kind of events? I imagine the military satellites do this at the componant level to withstand EMP from nuclear detonations, but I don't know about all of the communication and weather satellites. Do you have any idea how hard the global economy would crash if they were all cooked?!

[netmilsmom]

>>oppressive mother-in-law<<

Oooo, I have one of those too.

My father-in-law and hubby were putting together a set of gas logs for the fireplace in my dining room. They had pieces spread everywhere trying to figure it out. "Janet from another Planet" (my MIL) decided that this would be a good time to arrange the chairs and bowl of plastic fruit on the dining room suite they had graciously given us.
My FIL said, "Jan, you are stepping on the pieces. Please do that at another time."
My hubby said, "Mom, please you are moving parts all around. Do it after we have finished."
I said, "Come on, let's go downstairs and let the guys finish."

She stamped her foot and yelled, "One, two! Three people aren't going to tell me what to do!!"

She is 76 going on 5.

BTW, this is one of many stories...

[netmilsmom]

>>Okay. This isn't funny. Time to 'fess up. Which one of you broke the sun?<<

LOLOL!!