Poll: Trump gains on Clinton in NC (Less than 1% difference)

The Hill's Ballot Box Blog ^ | November 1, 2016 | Jonathan Swan

[2ndDivisionVet]

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is nibbling away at Hillary Clinton’s lead in North Carolina, according to a new poll.

The race between Clinton and Trump is now too close to call in Elon University’s latest survey of North Carolina. The Democratic nominee leads Trump 42 percent to 41.2 percent, well within the poll’s margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

In last month's version of the poll, Clinton led Trump by nearly 6 points.

This latest survey of 710 likely voters was conducted before FBI Director James Comey announced on Friday that the bureau is reviewing a newly discovered batch of emails possibly relevant to its investigation of how Clinton handled classified information on the private email server she used while secretary of State. “North Carolina is still very much in play for both Trump and Clinton,” said Jason Husser, director of Elon University polling and assistant professor of political science. “The Old North State is continuing its tradition as a source of true toss-up electoral votes.”

Clinton is targeting North Carolina’s 15 votes in the Electoral College as a way of blocking Trump’s path to the 270 needed to win the presidency. If Trump loses North Carolina, a state Republican nominee Mitt Romney won in 2012, his already narrow path to the White House virtually closes.

Like other races around the country, the North Carolina contest divides sharply along racial lines. One hundred percent of black respondents in the Elon poll favor Clinton, and 67 percent of white voters in North Carolina say they plan to vote for Trump.

One bright spot for Trump: The gender gap has tightened, with 55 percent of female voters in North Carolina planning to vote for Clinton, compared with 61 percent in the poll nearly a month ago. Male voters continue to favor Trump 56 percent to 44 percent.

The poll also showed incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) leading Democratic challenger Deborah Ross 43.5 percent to 39.9 percent in the state’s Senate race.

[Steely Tom]

Poll: Trump gains on Clinton in NC (Less than 1% difference)

That means he's really ahead by six or seven.

[dp0622]

One hundred percent of black respondents in the Elon poll favor Clinton

ok...

[MUDDOG]

Hannity just said O’Keefe told him that the next Project Veritas release will impact NC.

[Ravi]

The elon poll on rcp’s page has it tied at 44. That must incled leaners.

[JudyinCanada]

I hear repeatedly that Trump has a very narrow path because Clinton has electoral college votes locked up. Is this accurate? Are his chances as grim as they are saying?

[ducttape45]

I can’t believe it’s that close in North Carolina. There’s no way Trump can be behind.

[phoneman08]

Good news. Must have NC!

[ConservativeWarrior]

Ever notice how “Trump’s path to 270 EV is very narrow” but when he takes the lead nationally “Hillary finds herself in tightening race”?

Haha...

[McCarthysGhost]

According to this poll 100% of black respondents favor clinton...doubtful

[McCarthysGhost]

According to this poll 100% of black respondents favor clinton...doubtful

[xzins]

Other polls are showing him ahead in NC.

[BookmanTheJanitor]

Also, poll shows him winning 95% of Republicans and 58% of Independents...and it’s a tie?

[Eddie01]

[sargon]

I can’t believe it’s that close in North Carolina. There’s no way Trump can be behind.

Trump doesn't even need NC at this point, although the trends strongly suggest that he'll take it comfortably. Don't forget that the poll they cited took place before the Comey announcement.

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

[LibertyOh]

“According to this poll 100% of black respondents favor clinton...doubtful”

Appears they missed Diamond and Silk - Fayetteville, NC.

[cgbg]

I hear repeatedly that Trump has a very narrow path because Clinton has electoral college votes locked up. Is this accurate? Are his chances as grim as they are saying?

Hey, Judy--the short answer is "no".

When you look at poll numbers you need to dig into the fine print and determine the party registration of the people who were polled.

The nationwide registration is Democrats are about two points ahead of Republicans.

In 2012 Obama got heavy black turnout and the turnout was D+7. Why? Because Obama was the first and only black candidate for President.

Hillary is not as popular among black voters. How do we know this? We know it because we have early voting that has already taken place in Florida and North Carolina, millions of voters, and it looks like Hillary is drawing significantly lower numbers of Democratic early voters than Obama did.

We are probably looking at a D +1 or even party registration turnout.

Now, most national polls are using a D+8 to D+10 model!

If we drop the numbers down to D+1 Trump wins easily in the electoral college.

States that the "experts" are showing for Hillary but where is Trump is leading by this methodology include FL, MI, WI, PA, NH, and several small western states.

The major media is lying. It is just that simple.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

NC will be a LANDSLIDE for Trump, this is nothing but BS!!!! Diamond and Silk are from NC there is no way NC goes to the BITCH!!!!

[JudyinCanada]

Thanks very much for your response - very helpful!

[CruiseMates]

The FoxNews polling team just switched NC from toss-up to “leans democrat” today - and they are saying it is the main tie-breaker in the race. So, I hope your poll is right.

I just watched Shepard Smith say that he has it on “very good authority so it is 100% true that “the emails on Weiner’s device are a big ‘nothing-burger’ - nothing more than duplicates of what they already had.” What an ass! He knows that doesn’t even make sense numerically, yet he reports it live.