Posted on 09/29/2016 7:44:36 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Pat Caddell talked to Breitbart News Daily SiriusXM host Alex Marlow on Thursday about the apparent disconnect in election polling, stating, “The secret is nobody knows what we’re polling.” Caddell continued:
There are different ways of doing it. They come out with different results … because the polling tends now to be very snap – who’s ahead, who’s behind. We’re not looking deep enough into the attitudinal structure of this race. And that’s where I have repaired myself, which is to really try to dig into that because that is what, in the end, what will be determinative.
“Some of these polls are good. Some are not good,” stated Caddell, adding:
We don’t know, for example – we have voter models based upon past performance – we don’t know whether that’s going to hold up. The Trump model indicates voters who have not been participating, but are registered, who are planning to come out and vote.
“On the Breitbart polling … we’re trying to look a little deeper at this to understand what’s at play. … The truth of the matter is the race still hangs unresolved yet,” asserted Caddell...
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I’m old enough to remember when I was a big McGovern guy LOL! Yeah, went door to door for him around my military base. What an exp[erience...
Most of us recently returned Vietnam vets I knew voted for Nixon.
2012 breakdown was the following:
M 47%
F 53%
D 38%
R 32%
I 29%
White 72%
Black 13%
Hispanic 10%
Asian 3%
It can drive you nuts to follow the daily swings in every poll. We high-five when Trump is up and we despair when Trump is down. It almost feels like being a Cubs fan! We all remember how we thought the polling in 2012 was way off (remember uskewedpolls.com?), only to be proven wrong. I really, REALLY want to believe that with Trump things are truly different and that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
1. Is there a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary to depress Democrat turnout? I believe yes.
2. Can Trump generate the enthusiasm to increase GOP turnout? I believe yes.
3. Are we going to see an increase of people who have not voted in years, perhaps never voted before at all, to vote for Trump? I believe yes.
4. Will Trump be the one GOP candidate that can FINALLY win more than the usual number of black voters? I believe yes.
Well, you have four reasons as to why pollsters cannot rely on 2012 data for this year. Anyone else is welcome to add to the list.
GO TRUMP!! Do a better job in the next debate please!!!
It’s been a long time since I heard him say much good about Democrats in general.
I agree.
A lot of it is voodoo.
1. How do you poll people who only have cell phones?
2. How do you sample so that it represents people who will vote.
3. How do you account for voter enthusiasm?
The pollster’s preconceptions will determine a lot of that.
Just have to look at the rallies and enthusiasm for Trump. AT every rally he does he gets more people that will vote for him no matter what.
This isn’t speculation. We can see it already in the massive shifts in voter registration in Cuyahoga County OH (Cleveland) where NET the Rs picked up 97,000 after assigning ALL “U”s to the Dems. If you just split the “Us,” it’s 120,000. Either way, that amounts to more than 20%-—and as much as 25%-—right off the top of the 2012 difference of 200,000.
In other words, OH is already likely gone for Cankles. Absentees also show that R requests for absentees crushed Ds (still a lot of “Us” but there is good reason to think they won’t behave like 2012 “Us” who were merely Ds who didn’t vote in the primary).
FL is another one: the Rs have a margin already of 140,000 MORE absentee requests than the Ds-—and 2012 margin of victory was 74,000.
IA: Dems are 20,000 below their 2012 absentee numbers.
PA: D losses and R gains are 27,000, but here more than anywhere other than OH you are seeing white, non-college move to Trump.
The story is the same in NC and NV. It’s close in CO. No one knows about VA because they don’t register people by party, so NONE of the pollsters know what they are doing.
Heck how many people even answer the phone anymore if they don't recognize the number? I don't...if they leave a message they need to talk to me, if they don't they don't. They're either getting technologically challenged people, lonely people or people who have a lot of time on their hands.
Bookmark
Believe me, the (mostly) lifers I was canvassing around my first duty station treated me like a nut.
Exactly how I see it. I think there’s about a 3% prejudice against Trump- but I don’t know. And I don’t blame the pollsters for not knowing who’s going to vote yet either. Though using the 2012 turnout seems irrational, what else can they do?
Anyway, early returns will soon give a good picture for even the dullest.
That’s why the Gravis poll is a good indicator
You haven’t been listening to him for the last twenty years....he has been appalled at what has happened to his party. He loves America
In other words, Que Sara Sara...
You are wrong. Most polls showed obozo winning. All sorts of folks were busy saying that dems were over sampled and no way would the dems turn out for him.
Same here... we're big Pat Caddell fans. We met him at CPAC a few years ago, of all places! He was quite cordial. I think he's more conservative than we know. He always complains that his (Democrat) party left him.
If you're not aware, Pat Caddell appears every Sunday night on Fox News at 7:30pm ET on "The Fox Report" with Harris Faulkner, and two other pundits/pollsters: John LeBoutllier and Doug Schoen.
The show is only a half hour long. I wish it was longer. Caddell always has the most interesting comments. :-)
I meant to ping you to post #35 as well.
You had a nice treat when you met him. Thanks for sharing.
Yes, I watch that show and try not to miss it.
I bet they did. LOL
“Heck how many people even answer the phone anymore if they don’t recognize the number?”
That’s another problem. Do people who don’t answer their phone vote differently than people who do? There’s a serious potential bias built into that self-selection in polling.
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