2012 breakdown was the following:
M 47%
F 53%
D 38%
R 32%
I 29%
White 72%
Black 13%
Hispanic 10%
Asian 3%
It can drive you nuts to follow the daily swings in every poll. We high-five when Trump is up and we despair when Trump is down. It almost feels like being a Cubs fan! We all remember how we thought the polling in 2012 was way off (remember uskewedpolls.com?), only to be proven wrong. I really, REALLY want to believe that with Trump things are truly different and that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
1. Is there a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary to depress Democrat turnout? I believe yes.
2. Can Trump generate the enthusiasm to increase GOP turnout? I believe yes.
3. Are we going to see an increase of people who have not voted in years, perhaps never voted before at all, to vote for Trump? I believe yes.
4. Will Trump be the one GOP candidate that can FINALLY win more than the usual number of black voters? I believe yes.
Well, you have four reasons as to why pollsters cannot rely on 2012 data for this year. Anyone else is welcome to add to the list.
GO TRUMP!! Do a better job in the next debate please!!!
This isn’t speculation. We can see it already in the massive shifts in voter registration in Cuyahoga County OH (Cleveland) where NET the Rs picked up 97,000 after assigning ALL “U”s to the Dems. If you just split the “Us,” it’s 120,000. Either way, that amounts to more than 20%-—and as much as 25%-—right off the top of the 2012 difference of 200,000.
In other words, OH is already likely gone for Cankles. Absentees also show that R requests for absentees crushed Ds (still a lot of “Us” but there is good reason to think they won’t behave like 2012 “Us” who were merely Ds who didn’t vote in the primary).
FL is another one: the Rs have a margin already of 140,000 MORE absentee requests than the Ds-—and 2012 margin of victory was 74,000.
IA: Dems are 20,000 below their 2012 absentee numbers.
PA: D losses and R gains are 27,000, but here more than anywhere other than OH you are seeing white, non-college move to Trump.
The story is the same in NC and NV. It’s close in CO. No one knows about VA because they don’t register people by party, so NONE of the pollsters know what they are doing.
Exactly how I see it. I think there’s about a 3% prejudice against Trump- but I don’t know. And I don’t blame the pollsters for not knowing who’s going to vote yet either. Though using the 2012 turnout seems irrational, what else can they do?
Anyway, early returns will soon give a good picture for even the dullest.