Posted on 09/29/2016 10:48:40 AM PDT by LS
On September 26, Ohio Secretary of State John Husted announced that this year's OH absentee requests stood at 805,844. This was more than 82,000 more than requested in 2004. (Ohio's population fell by 24,000 since then!)
As of yet, we don't know what the returns are, but in 2012 they were 93% of mailed absentee requests were returned, and those that included walk in absentee requests reached 95% total. Overall, 1,966,308 absentees were mailed in OH in 2012, over 1/3 of the total.
Now, we don't yet know who voted, but we will soon. I have a source who knows the actual voters from a key county who can give us a percentage breakdown of who voted, which is a good extrapolation from all OH.
Meanwhile, a well-placed elections official in OH tells me that over the years Ohioans have gotten more comfortable with absentee voting and that's a good thing because "our down ballot candidates, judges, commissioners, tend to do much better on absentees than in person." Normally he said a judge's vote will go up 8-10% on absentee ballots over walk-ins.
Asked about fraud in Ohio, a former GOP official noted that he isn't that concerned, that there is some, but the very diffuse precinct system makes widespread fraud difficult. Asked about the challenge of "early voting" (as opposed to absentee) he said he did not expect this would be the level that we saw in 2008 and 2012. The "Souls to the Polls" movement, he thought, would not be generating the heavy black turnout that appeared before. He cited the relatively LOW interest in the Dem primary, where despite the hoopla, turnout was low.
We'll know more next week, but I think the results will be very encouraging and, even without wondering how many Ds will vote R or undecideds will "break," I think we'll see very strong indications of a great Trump performance among absentees.
The unions haven’t sent out the ‘alarm’ memo yet. That usually happens in a week or so.
Please keep me posted.
I think this time around these are very, very good numbers for us. So did the guy I spoke with, but we’ll know much more next week.
Yes, they did. Article the other day posted here that said on Labor Day the AFL-CIO did a survey and found 41% of its members voting Trump. They began to browbeat & threaten and got the # to 36%, but a) we don’t know how many of those people just said what the thugs wanted to hear, and b) EVEN if it’s 35% union to Trump, MI, OH, PA all gone for Cankles.
Ohio is so huge. It looks good. More Trump people are stepping out public. This is happening. BTW Trumps speech last night in Wisconsin may have been his best. It was a hybrid, part read and part free lance.
Trump is doing REALLY well in Northeast Ohio. If a Republican does well in NE Ohio, that Republican will win Ohio... Thus, the reason Hillary’s camp has pulled-out of Ohio.
Rob Portman (R) is ahead of Ted Strickland (D) by 12% right now.
Are you there?
Congratulations on being on the list of 125!!!
“I think this time around these are very, very good numbers for us. So did the guy I spoke with, but we’ll know much more next week.”
That is good news.
Yes I think Ohio will go TRUMP.
However I was messing around on 270towin and I think this year the pivotal state is Virginia.
Yes, I’ve said for a while that VA is the tougher nut-—don’t think right now we need it as we should have CO, NV, IA, and ME-2.
However, when last week’s +5 number for Trump in VA came out, I asked a little bird in Trump camp if it was real and the bird said yes.
Good news. :)
Yes
The big enchilada is Florida. The Clinton mafia will go all out, there. And powered fraud will run rampant. Keep an eye on St. Lucie County. Truck needs to put extra effort and money into the state to winter. And powered fraud will run rampant. Keep an eye on St. Lucie County. Trump needs to put extra effort and money into the state to win it.
Sorry, but I think the absentee ballot requests, already running 140k + for GOP, will make FL non-competitive. I think Trump wins by 750k.
Well, I hope so. All I’m saying is that Florida is the sine qua non of Trump’s effort. And, although Hillary seems to have pulled out of Ohio, she will go after Florida with a vengeance. Trump has many routes to victory, but not without Florida, and Hillary knows it. Expect a war down there.
My entire family who are democrats are voting Trump this year and they HATE REPUBLICANS.
53% of all ballots cast in Ohio during the 2012 election period were voted absentee or early in-person.
Ballots to overseas and military voters were mailed last Saturday; the election is underway!
One more tidbit: of the ballots cast in Mahoning County (Youngstown is the county seat), during the 2012 primary election, 68% were cast by Democrats and 31% were cast by Republicans. In the 2016 primary, 52% were cast by Democrats, and 48% were cast by Republicans.
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