Posted on 07/25/2016 10:12:30 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
(DATA-AND-CHARTS-AT-LINK)
While, Hillary is sinking like a rock!
Meant to say ‘wow’ not ‘while’
WOW that is a HUGE jump..just a few weeks ago I think he gave Trump a 10 percent chance of winning
Thanks, Putie.
Like Jeb Hillary is fond of spending other people’s money on worthless attack ads on Trump
leftard Silver got it wrong on the last 2 elections so I’ll just take this with a grain of salt. Did he have a dartboard this time to get that number?
Trump or the RNC needs to fly a plane over Philly with a banner that says:
Download Clinton Cash to get the real story on the Clintons!
Recent polls show trump got a convention bounce in the polls.
Haven’t heard much in the MSM about Trump having such favorable public reaction to his speech and favorable reaction to the convention. The media keep saying the GOP convention was such a dark dreary convention. But many real people feel otherwise.
Yes I’m also implying that many media types are not real ordinary people. Their views are distorted by the groupthink of the New York/Washington axis.
Buh bye Shitlery, you suck and never will be CinC ...
This is “if the election were held today” numbers...
Nate still has his prediction that Hillary will win at around 60%... he’s just not picking up whats going on on the ground.. he’s putting too much stock in this is an old style race.. not picking up the fundamentals of this race are different. He’ll be eating crow in Nov, just like he did in the primary.
Even Robert Reich gets it. The people are pissed at both parties.
The only thing that may swing a few votes Hillary’s way is he medical health of Bill Clinton, or lack of same. A freeper noted he had not been seen since the 13th. Keep away from Fort Marcy Park, Bill.
He’s just not looking at the relevant data, and his models are over weighting less relevant data.
For example, his models heavily weight endorsements, because in most elections endorsements matter. Naturally, Hillary being an establishment politician with nearly 50 years tied at some level to the democratic machinery has lots more endorsements and by far more politically connected folks that a disruptive candidate like Donald Trump who just entered politics have.. etc...
As Such Nate’s models tell him, Trump should lose, even though he is clearly winning right now based on polling... Because his models can’t handle a disruptive candidate, they can’t see a disruptive candidate is better off NOT getting an endorsement from certain establishment politicians that he would be if he did.
Nate’s models aren’t able to grasp the relevant data this election, because they either don’t know they should be looking at it (ie the relevant data isn’t something that was relevant in the past) or they don’t know how to interpret it properly, (such as my endorsement example).
When a Kasich or a Bush or a Cruz doesn’t endorse or verbally belittles or refuses to come to the convention for Trump... those things appear historically to be WEAKENING to a candidate traditionally... but for a disruptive candidate with an anti-establishment/anti-status quo electorate, those are all huge positives... Nate’s models just won’t pick it up until its too late.
Trump will continue to lead in the polls and Nate’s models will keep telling him Hillary should win... that will up until an inflection point in his models, where historically polls now outweigh all those other factors... which happens as you get closer to election day.. then “SUDDENLY” Nate’s Model will inflect because all those other data points become less of a prediction than the actual polling.
We are in JULY so even though polling shows at every level Hillary is desperately in trouble with no obvious path to victory, she has the right things ticked off traditionally that “should” give her the edge... closer to election day, patterns weight toward polling strips away those other factors...and you hit that election point... July is too far out to hit that inflection point.... Nate’s model is missing and misinterpreting relevant data.
Understand, this is his “If Election Happened Right now” results.. he’s still predicting 60% chance Hillary wins in November.. his models are missing and misinterpreting relevant data.... His model will likely continue to show Hillary winning, no matter what the polls are saying up until much closer to election day, because his models don’t know which data is relevant, or how to properly interpret data around a disruptive candidate like Trump, because there isn’t a model upon which to base what data is relevant or how it should be interpreted.
Nates predictive models will almost certainly continue to predict a Hillary win, no matter what is going on in the daily polls until sometime in October... at which point historical models which he claims to work from, become far more weighted toward polling numbers and other things he’s highly weighting now become less important.. See my other posts here....
I wouldn’t expect Nate’s models to show him Trump as a Projected winner in Nov until the earliest sometime in mid Oct, no matter how badly Hillary is doing on the actual polls.
Latest polls by CNN, CBS, and LA Times have Trump ahead. I am expecting that to change a little after the DNC this week, but wow. Democrats have lately kept an easy 5% lead in polls and Hillary can't even do that. Her vp announcement was supposed to draw away all the attention from the RNC, but I don't see that it even mattered.
Unfortunately, Hillary will win. The ‘rats will cheat like they always do but with absolutely no authority (DOJ? FBI?) to stop them this time. That’s why these voter ID laws are being overturned. There will be no peaceful way to get our country back.
You can guarantee that any figures are being skewed against Trump as well due to bias in the methodologies used and the famous love of the Democratic Party dead people have.
I’d say Trump is on +10 any poll (state or national) that is out there.
That said, my biggest concern is that if we get to October and Trump’s victory looks to be inevitable, Obama will declare martial law. Not a chance will he willingly hand over the White House to Trump, nor will the elites let him
I think if it looks like in late October that Trump will win Obama will just let leftist unleash themselves and go for that coup like they did in Turkey..Obama will feel like he has nothing to lose by letting mass riots happen
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