WOW that is a HUGE jump..just a few weeks ago I think he gave Trump a 10 percent chance of winning
Understand, this is his “If Election Happened Right now” results.. he’s still predicting 60% chance Hillary wins in November.. his models are missing and misinterpreting relevant data.... His model will likely continue to show Hillary winning, no matter what the polls are saying up until much closer to election day, because his models don’t know which data is relevant, or how to properly interpret data around a disruptive candidate like Trump, because there isn’t a model upon which to base what data is relevant or how it should be interpreted.
Nates predictive models will almost certainly continue to predict a Hillary win, no matter what is going on in the daily polls until sometime in October... at which point historical models which he claims to work from, become far more weighted toward polling numbers and other things he’s highly weighting now become less important.. See my other posts here....
I wouldn’t expect Nate’s models to show him Trump as a Projected winner in Nov until the earliest sometime in mid Oct, no matter how badly Hillary is doing on the actual polls.
You can guarantee that any figures are being skewed against Trump as well due to bias in the methodologies used and the famous love of the Democratic Party dead people have.
I’d say Trump is on +10 any poll (state or national) that is out there.
That said, my biggest concern is that if we get to October and Trump’s victory looks to be inevitable, Obama will declare martial law. Not a chance will he willingly hand over the White House to Trump, nor will the elites let him
“WOW that is a HUGE jump..just a few weeks ago I think he gave Trump a 10 percent chance of winning”
Indeed. This is almost unbelievable.