Comments??....
In Canada!!
20 posted on 5/12/2010, 3:03:41 PM by 2ndDivisionVet (Don’t care if he was born in a manger on July 4th! A “Natural Born” citizen requires two US parents!)
Posted on 04/13/2016 10:10:14 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
It’s a well known story: When Ted Cruz went to work for the George W. Bush presidential campaign in 2000, he had a lot going for him. He was in his 20s, a Texan, and smart, boasting a Harvard Law degree and a Supreme Court clerkship. It didn’t hurt to be young Hispanic man in a campaign looking for Latino votes. But Cruz was so self-aggrandizing and irksome that he managed to annoy folks at the headquarters in Austin so much that he never won a coveted slot at the White House. When Bush took office, Cruz was relegated to the hinterlands of the Federal Trade Commission.
Since then, Cruz’s unlikability has become legendary, especially in the Senate, where he really pissed off his colleagues with a government shutdown, and even called his party’s leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell, a liar. No wonder Ted Cruz was on CNN on Wednesday night as part of their family town hall series. With his telegenic wife and adorable daughters, Cruz did a lot to dispel the image of him as yucky.
Like Nixon in the 50s, Cruz in the 10s isn’t lovable but he has come very far very fast. Here he is, a first-term senator in second place for the Republican nomination, having outlasted the likes of Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. Like Obama was when he ran and won the presidency, he’s only in the fourth year of his first term....
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
Wow.
Well, first we have to determine the chance that Trump will not get 1237. I believe that is around 40 percent.
Then, multiply that by the chance that Cruz will be able to reach 1237 by stealing about 500 or more delegates from Trump's people and by getting the delegates who the establishment controls. He will also have to hold all of his own delegates. Odds of Cruz getting the nomination on a later ballot: 10 percent. The establishment will either make a deal with Trump or find someone to be the designated loser who will at least let the establishment keep control of the party.
Mathematically, Cruz's chance of being the nominee: 4 percent.
Suppose you are a dedicated Cruzbot and you think the odds of a contested convention are 50/50 and the odds of Cruz getting the nomination in such event are 50/50. That still yields a 25 percent chance of Cruz getting the nomination. And I hate to tell you, but both figures are wildly inflated. That is your best case scenario. 4 percent is more realistic.
For Trump on the other hand, start with a 60 percent chance that he gets to 1237. Then, even if he doesn't, he still has the best shot of anyone of winning on a second or third ballot. He only will need a few delegates to switch, and the deals will commence. Sadly, he will have to make some deals with the establishment, most likely. The establishment will deal with him because they know they have to find a way to try to coopt him if they want to keep their sweetheart deals.
Trump's odds of getting the nomination on a second or third ballot are going to be around 70 percent. He just needs a deal with Kasich, or Rubio, or a couple of state's delegates, and it's done.
So, Trump's odds are 60 percent plus a 70 percent chance of winning if the convention is open. That comes out to 60 + 28= 88 percent chance of Trump winning the nomination.
As for the general election, if it's not Trump, there is zero percent chance of the Republican nominee winning. An establishment clown, or Cruz (same thing, right?) will go down to ignominious defeat. So Cruz's ultimate chance of victory is zero, on top of his 4 percent chance of even being the nominee. Not too smart of him to pursue his scorched earth strategy, was it, Cruztafarians? Had he hitched his wagon to Trump, he would have either been VP or Attorney General, or just campaigned for him in exchange for support down the road. Instead, he wanted it all, and he wanted it now, and he will pay the price by becoming a footnote to the history of this campaign and to the history of the US Senate.
LOL!
Ted Cruz Could Be President—Seriously? No!
Fixed it for you.
Matthew Cooper, (D-Newsweek) already did that to himself, many many years ago.
I'm surprised you've forgotten that...
Actually, the cruzpostbots like yourself are like the "journalists" who are the rear end of Obama's Human Centipede...
It is going to take a lightening bolt to wake up the Cruz mind-numbed bots. This guy Cruz has put a hex on them.
They killed jesus for his unlike-ability and he was the son of god. Likeability often means you are a compromise or pleaser.ted cruz has repeatedly stood up against the anti-American nonsense in senate.he has tried to stand in way of them giving in to obama. What’s to like about that?
“So, yes, Cruz has campaign chops, and skills that make him a Republican that Democrats should take seriously. If he gets to 1237—the number of delegates needed to win the nomination—he can likely get to 270, the number of electoral votes needed to be president in the general election.”
So I read the whole article and it comes to “if he can get 1237, he can get 270”. I don’t know what getting 1237 by wrangling delegates instead of winning state primaries has anything to do with winning the general election.
Sorry...
Well, when you’ve been here a year or two, maybe you will.
Trump: not just the most hated potential presidential candidate in modern times, an
ISOLATIONIST
No.
Like Dale Gribble on an alien abduction rant...
;)
I want a leader that will make the right decisions to reduce the size of the federal government, cut spending, follow the constitution, etc.
I don’t want a yes man that says what is politically correct to gain favor with the spenders of big government.
Go Ted. We Trust you.
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