Posted on 04/09/2016 10:43:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Just over a month ago, after Trump’s big win in Nevada and after Cruz’s SEC state southern strategy fell short amidst the Trump tidal wave across the south, it looked like Trump had the momentum to prevail against a fractured field. Trump thought it was over, and was confident enough to hold unifying post-primary press conference events like a President. As more March contests took place however, the persistent overperformance of Cruz (in places like Kansas, Wyoming and Maine) and underperformance of Rubio that led finally to Rubio’s withdrawal after Florida. Despite Kasich staying in, the race has winnowed and clarified to the point where Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump.
And what happened? While Trump won in Arizona, in part due to early votes in the Arizona primary and a favorable state for his immigration message, since then it’s been Cruz domination:
◾Cruz won Utah with 69% of the vote, sweeping all of Utah’s 40 delegates.
◾Cruz won delegates out of Louisiana that were available.
◾Cruz then won the North Dakota delegate race, taking 18 out of 25 delegates. Trump got only 1 publicly supporting delegate.
◾Cruz won in Wisconsin, getting close to 50% of the vote and winning 36 out of the 42 delegates by winning most Congressional districts, with just 6 delegates for Trump.
◾Cruz won the Colorado delegate selection process, winning all of the delegate races, either with Cruz bound delegates or Cruz-supporting unbound delegates, a total of 34 delegates.
◾Cruz has been winning the ‘other’ nomination race, the race for actual delegates, even when bound to Trump. In places like Georgia, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and many other states. For example, this weekend in Iowa, a CD is sending #CruzCrew delegates to Iowa.
@CCPAC4Cruz 5m5 minutes ago Sweep for #CruzCrew delegates in #IA02 #OnToCleveland
The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.
As of right now, The Greenpapers has soft pledged total at:
◾758 Trump
◾533 Cruz
◾732 available (via primaries) to be bound
◾77 unpledged available
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Should Trump get 50% of the remaining, above the 45% he’s gotten so far, Trump would have 1120 delegates after June 7th. This is why today, PredictIt.org says: “Traders give a brokered convention a 70% chance.”
With Trump’s complete failure to win the delegate race, with him losing steam in primaries and getting punked in almost every caucus and activist-filled GOP convention, it’s become almost a certainty that if Trump can’t get to Cleveland either at or very close to 1237 bound delegates, that he will fail to have sufficient delegates to actually win the nomination.
“The convention is an extension of the democratic process. … I am confident that we are going to win a contested convention.” – Ted Cruz, 4/9/16
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot. Victory will go to Cruz, the man who’s run the best campaign and is indeed the best candidate. And history will look back at this week and the Wisconsin victory and other wins this week as the turning point.
ROTFLOLOL.
He ONLY BOUGHT THE POLITICIANS WHO WERE FOR SALE!
ANYONE with MONEY CAN!
Just like the BIG Donors have BOUGHT CRUZ!
Your nic fits, but needs and addition to it; please add on UNEDUCATED.
This is the first time I’ve heard Cruz say we are going into a contested convention. ..just before this he kept saying he’s making a comeback and will win the 1237. Guess he’s conceded to the fact he cannot win outright, and will count on the bribed establishment delegates disguised as Trump supporters voting for him on 2nd ballot.
Can anyone not see that he is just a tool of the elite now? One that will cause chaos and division, and be the end of the party. He will win blue states in the general, plus the Trump voters won’t vote for him. So a vote for Cruz is now really a vote for Hillary.
President Clinton? That’s fine. They told me the same thing with McCain and Romney. You Trump people can’t blackmail me into voting for yet another GOP liberal like Trump by using the scare tactics of the threat of another Dem presidency. You want to nominate another liberal/moderate like Little Donald? Go ahead. Just don’t count on conservatives to carry your water for you YET AGAIN at the ballot box. Romney was one time too many. Trump doesn’t get my vote.
With all due respect, I am not trying to blackmail you into anything. Just saying that if you vote libertarian, you are ushering in the Democrat.
You think Trump is the liberal, then I ask why is everyone—including the moderates (who I call GOPe) against him...like Romney, Gramnesty, Bush, and McCain...
I would encourage you to reconsider you stance on Trump. I don’t know your politics...But for me the fact that Phyllis Schlafly, the “Margaret Thatcher” of American Conservatism, endorsed Trump spoke volumes to me...She is 91. She has no ulterior motive for endorsing him...She believes he is the candidate that will change the status quo. She has been fighting for conservative values since I was a kid. When my kids were little and I was fighting local school systems to fight liberal sex ed curriculums, who did I turn to? Phyllis Schlafly...To me, her endorsement was huge. In addition, Jeff Sessions, the stalwart against illegal immigration and H-1B visa abuse, endorsed Trump—not Cruz. IMHO immigration issues are the largest threats to our country and our future.
Normally, I am not a huge endorsement person, but the fact that those two plus Sarah Palin and Pat Robertson make me feel that my decision to support Trump is good.
If you look at my tag line, I would like to elaborate...to me the election this time around is about more than Democrat versus Republican or Liberal versus Conservative...It is really about Liberty versus Tyranny and National Sovereignty versus Globalism...
Vote for who you wish, but I do apologize and do not want you to feel blackmailed into voting for anyone.
Ted Cruz has not embraced the establishment, the establishment has grudgingly embraced -him-. Meanwhile, Little Donald has been a crony capitalist for decades, wheeling and dealing with insiders on both sides of the aisle. I don’t base my vote on who likes or dislikes a candidate. I base my vote on a combination of their stated positions, their past behavior, and my gut instincts.
These combined tell me Cruz would govern far more conservatively than Trump. And if Trump wins, he can do it with all his crossover Democrat friends who will expect him to govern like a Democrat and shove a little government graft their way for a change. In any event, Little Donald can do it without my vote.
That East coast candidate swept the south, which was supposed to be Cruz
Country.
And that East Coast candidate is about to sweep the north too.
It won’t be long and Cruz will be back in the senate shutting down the
Govt every 6 months or so.
So much for the anointed one and the Priesthood rising nonsense.
Jim does not support him now after Ted’s Lyin’ and Thievin’.
Romney not only couldn't get the base excited about him, he couldn't attract Dem, blacks, or anyone else. Trump can and does. LOL
Can anyone not see that he is just a tool of the elite now? One that will cause chaos and division, and be the end of the party. He will win blue states in the general, plus the Trump voters won’t vote for him. So a vote for Cruz is now really a vote for Hillary.
I think the Cruz campaign media marketers use this login as multiple people working different shifts, they just login with this one. I’ve seen posts well into the 4 am EST range.
I’ve worked in Internet marketing for most of my life, I know how it works :)
No it can’t; from here on out, Cruz is at a great disadvantage re winning any states; though Indiana is a “who knows” at this point.
Matters not what the internet stranger thinks of you. The self imposed stain of hypocrisy remains, despite your protestations.
Thanks very much. I’ll try to look at the links tomorrow when my brain has rested from my very upsetting, emotional day. My French Bulldog puppy was stolen from my yard early yesterday morning and I was very fortunate to get him back late in the afternoon. I had the Police out looking for him, too!
I’m trying to get him to take his medication from his Vet but he’s onto all my tricks. He must take it!
Thanks for your polite and considerate reply. If Immigration were my #1 issue, perhaps I would consider Trump, but it is not. The size and scope of government is, and Trump has some positions related to that that are troubling to me. If not voting Trump ushers in another Democrat, so be it, but I am not going to vote for another moderate Republican. If Trump truly brings over as many Democrats as the Trump people think, then he can win just fine without us conservatives, and at least my conscience will be clear knowing I didn’t have to hold my nose and vote moderate GOP yet again.
LOLOL.
I hope you’re right.
Bernie Sanders gets a lot of Dems and blacks excited for HIM, too. Doesn’t mean I want to see him as president.
His opposition to corporate inversion is so CONSERVATIVE, it's mind blowing!
You have NO idea what CONSERVATIVE means/is!
His health INSURANCE policies are not vague; unlike Cruz's, whose every single "plan" is vague and wrong. Since WHEN is a VAT "conservative" on top of income taxes ?
Please don't vote and please either don't post to FR, or find a nice little section to hide in, where perhaps you know SOMETHING factual about the topic!
But you realize Romney is supporting Cruz, along with the rest of the GOPe that has let you down before, right?
If you actuslly listen to Trumps speeches, they are a fresh of breath air and don’t sound like a rehearsed act. You realize any politician can stand up reciting the conservative jargon that everyone wants to hear, and then do the opposite when in office? Politicians are skilled liers, and say whatever it takes to get votes.
Whatever anyone can say about Trump, he’s not politician, you can tell by his mis speaks that he doesn’t rehearse a planned speech, and that’s why he is the choice for millions who are sick of getting lied to by career politicians.
I have posted NO "untruths" at all. I post FACTS!
I think you’re confusing ‘Nationalist’ with ‘Conservative’. I am defining ‘Conservative’ as ‘classical enlightenment liberalism’, the sort the country was founded upon, which expounds individualism and limited government. Trump’s plans are definitely protectionist and nationalist, and thus more big-government than I would like.
As for me stopping posting just because you wish it, or I disagree with you, fat chance ;) Just because you support Little Donald doesn’t mean your skin needs to be as thin as HIS is!
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