Posted on 04/09/2016 10:43:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Just over a month ago, after Trump’s big win in Nevada and after Cruz’s SEC state southern strategy fell short amidst the Trump tidal wave across the south, it looked like Trump had the momentum to prevail against a fractured field. Trump thought it was over, and was confident enough to hold unifying post-primary press conference events like a President. As more March contests took place however, the persistent overperformance of Cruz (in places like Kansas, Wyoming and Maine) and underperformance of Rubio that led finally to Rubio’s withdrawal after Florida. Despite Kasich staying in, the race has winnowed and clarified to the point where Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump.
And what happened? While Trump won in Arizona, in part due to early votes in the Arizona primary and a favorable state for his immigration message, since then it’s been Cruz domination:
◾Cruz won Utah with 69% of the vote, sweeping all of Utah’s 40 delegates.
◾Cruz won delegates out of Louisiana that were available.
◾Cruz then won the North Dakota delegate race, taking 18 out of 25 delegates. Trump got only 1 publicly supporting delegate.
◾Cruz won in Wisconsin, getting close to 50% of the vote and winning 36 out of the 42 delegates by winning most Congressional districts, with just 6 delegates for Trump.
◾Cruz won the Colorado delegate selection process, winning all of the delegate races, either with Cruz bound delegates or Cruz-supporting unbound delegates, a total of 34 delegates.
◾Cruz has been winning the ‘other’ nomination race, the race for actual delegates, even when bound to Trump. In places like Georgia, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and many other states. For example, this weekend in Iowa, a CD is sending #CruzCrew delegates to Iowa.
@CCPAC4Cruz 5m5 minutes ago Sweep for #CruzCrew delegates in #IA02 #OnToCleveland
The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.
As of right now, The Greenpapers has soft pledged total at:
◾758 Trump
◾533 Cruz
◾732 available (via primaries) to be bound
◾77 unpledged available
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Should Trump get 50% of the remaining, above the 45% he’s gotten so far, Trump would have 1120 delegates after June 7th. This is why today, PredictIt.org says: “Traders give a brokered convention a 70% chance.”
With Trump’s complete failure to win the delegate race, with him losing steam in primaries and getting punked in almost every caucus and activist-filled GOP convention, it’s become almost a certainty that if Trump can’t get to Cleveland either at or very close to 1237 bound delegates, that he will fail to have sufficient delegates to actually win the nomination.
“The convention is an extension of the democratic process. … I am confident that we are going to win a contested convention.” – Ted Cruz, 4/9/16
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot. Victory will go to Cruz, the man who’s run the best campaign and is indeed the best candidate. And history will look back at this week and the Wisconsin victory and other wins this week as the turning point.
Cruz’s floating delegates and bragging rights victory in Iowa still means Trump gets momentum to 1237 on the first vote.
Cruz would be doing a few points better if wasn’t boasting and didn’t lie about Ben.
The next two weeks are the weeks Cruz is left behind.
The guy those guys are supporting isn’t Trump, it is Cruz.
“...I already noted as much, including my opinion that Ted Cruz is natural born....”
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Well, thanks to Donald Trump pushing the NBC issue we now have a definitive court decision (the Pennsylvania case) settling the issue. Now it won’t be a general election issue.
Other than a setup for some pathetic ad hominem snark from you, what has my "age" to do with anything?
Like it or not, henceforth, every single time I see you post, I will remember the revelation of that serendipitous quote, from your very own keyboard.
And I will smirk, knowingly.
I'm considering adding it to my tagline, it's just *that* priceless.
It is also VERY clearly written out in the study guide that our government hands out to those studying to become Naturalized Citizens! Go look it up...that's on line.
Say hello to President Clinton...Thank you so much!
I don’t care who THEY’RE supporting, what matters is the nominee. Cruz is a conservative. Trump is a liberal/moderate. I will vote for no more Republican liberal/moderates. I’ve been fooled too many times. Little Donald is just more of the same.
You are wrong.
I won’t be able to sleep tonight knowing that some stranger on the Internet that I will never meet thinks I’m a hypocrite.
President Clinton? That’s fine. They told me the same thing with McCain and Romney. You Trump people can’t blackmail me into voting for yet another GOP liberal like Trump by using the scare tactics of the threat of another Dem presidency. You want to nominate another liberal/moderate like Little Donald? Go ahead. Just don’t count on conservatives to carry your water for you YET AGAIN at the ballot box. Romney was one time too many. Trump doesn’t get my vote.
N.Y. is NOT going to be Trump's "last hurrah", as he is going to go on to win Pa., Ct., R.I., Delaware, Maryland, and N.J.! Do you know how many delegates that all adds up to? LOL
And he'll do well in California too!
We’re trying to box in some scenarios that Romney-Cruz will hatch to take Trump out and still save face enough to act as if they are dignified.
You and I know they don’t care. But what can we expect to see is the question.
Romney controls the GOP, he is still the head of it. As such he has access to all the apparatus; the phone lists, the names and numbers of the district and precinct captains etc.
The RNC and other organs of the GOP constantly mail out flyers to ascertain who is wanted, Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Other. Then they get the address, phone etc. Then they drill down to likely #NeverTrump types. Then they set them out to fill out delegate candidacy forms, and then spur them on to conventions with marching orders.
So this is how they are running ahead on the so-called ‘ground game’. They are using their database. I will bet they denied Trump access to it.
Keep in mind, in case you didn’t know, that Romney is one of the most dishonest persons alive today. Note that the tone, culture and environment he sets and creates, starts from his view of what’s outside him, and from that starting point, it flows downhill.
This isn’t so much about Cruz, Cruz is Romney’s stooge. This is Romney.
If we accept that Romney is the ‘mastermind’ behind this, then it’s safe to say he doesn’t allow Trump to reach 1237 even if Trump reaches 1237+.
This is not my throwing thoughts around. It’s already been published here:
2ndDiv wisely found a nonanswer. Of course he thinks it would be great if there were defections from Donald’s 1237+.
What “momentum”? There is NONE for him, on the entire Eastern Seaboard!
Your own words.
:)
East Coast moderate/lib Republicans DO sure love them some Little Donald!
Whatever, dude.
The author of the article has gotten too far ahead of himself because Cruz has no strength in the remaining states while Trump does have a lot of strength & is growing.
No, I am right. My source is Trump himself. He brags about buying politicians. He is a stereotypical Crony Capitalist.
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