Posted on 04/09/2016 10:43:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Just over a month ago, after Trump’s big win in Nevada and after Cruz’s SEC state southern strategy fell short amidst the Trump tidal wave across the south, it looked like Trump had the momentum to prevail against a fractured field. Trump thought it was over, and was confident enough to hold unifying post-primary press conference events like a President. As more March contests took place however, the persistent overperformance of Cruz (in places like Kansas, Wyoming and Maine) and underperformance of Rubio that led finally to Rubio’s withdrawal after Florida. Despite Kasich staying in, the race has winnowed and clarified to the point where Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump.
And what happened? While Trump won in Arizona, in part due to early votes in the Arizona primary and a favorable state for his immigration message, since then it’s been Cruz domination:
◾Cruz won Utah with 69% of the vote, sweeping all of Utah’s 40 delegates.
◾Cruz won delegates out of Louisiana that were available.
◾Cruz then won the North Dakota delegate race, taking 18 out of 25 delegates. Trump got only 1 publicly supporting delegate.
◾Cruz won in Wisconsin, getting close to 50% of the vote and winning 36 out of the 42 delegates by winning most Congressional districts, with just 6 delegates for Trump.
◾Cruz won the Colorado delegate selection process, winning all of the delegate races, either with Cruz bound delegates or Cruz-supporting unbound delegates, a total of 34 delegates.
◾Cruz has been winning the ‘other’ nomination race, the race for actual delegates, even when bound to Trump. In places like Georgia, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and many other states. For example, this weekend in Iowa, a CD is sending #CruzCrew delegates to Iowa.
@CCPAC4Cruz 5m5 minutes ago Sweep for #CruzCrew delegates in #IA02 #OnToCleveland
The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.
As of right now, The Greenpapers has soft pledged total at:
◾758 Trump
◾533 Cruz
◾732 available (via primaries) to be bound
◾77 unpledged available
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Should Trump get 50% of the remaining, above the 45% he’s gotten so far, Trump would have 1120 delegates after June 7th. This is why today, PredictIt.org says: “Traders give a brokered convention a 70% chance.”
With Trump’s complete failure to win the delegate race, with him losing steam in primaries and getting punked in almost every caucus and activist-filled GOP convention, it’s become almost a certainty that if Trump can’t get to Cleveland either at or very close to 1237 bound delegates, that he will fail to have sufficient delegates to actually win the nomination.
“The convention is an extension of the democratic process. … I am confident that we are going to win a contested convention.” – Ted Cruz, 4/9/16
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot. Victory will go to Cruz, the man who’s run the best campaign and is indeed the best candidate. And history will look back at this week and the Wisconsin victory and other wins this week as the turning point.
This is the week that Ted CruzHillary Clinton won the Republican nominationWhite House
There is NOTHING more conservative than stopping a permanent democrat/marxist voting majority and doing whats best for the people and the country. By virtue of Mr. Trumps position on illegal immigration he Trumps all others conservatism.
“All I have to do is, dreeeam, dreeeam dreeeam, dream, dream, dream, dream, is dreeeeam, dreeeam, dreeeeam.”
NEVER.
GONNA.
HAPPEN.
Cheatin’ Ted is wasting his (your) time and money. He’s a swarmy snake.
Hold that Bible up. CHEAT. LIE. STEAL.
(What a guy)
There is NOTHING more conservative than stopping a permanent democrat/marxist voting majority and doing whats best for the people and the country. By virtue of Mr. Trumps position on illegal immigration he Trumps all others conservatism.
I’m tired of being told, as a conservative, that I have to (yet again) hold my nose and vote for a liberal... which is why I’m voting for TRUMP !!
Cruz is the establishment.
You are going to be so shocked if we have a contested convention and Paul Ryan is our nominee. Cause, THAT’S THEIR PLAN. It will NEVER, EVER be Cruz. NEVER.
Yeah, Actually campaigning to win the vote of the voters is now considered incompetent by Cruzoids. Constitutional conservatives? Hah, jokes.
What a sick bunch you have become.
Since Ted doesn’t need the votes of voters for the primary, I will stay home and so will many people.
We can watch him win the general without voters since he is so smart.
Trump’s arrogance will bring him down, plus he’s just another northeastern leftist.
Trump is more a Nationalist-Populist-Libertarian.
When does your shift end?
No doubt, the most prolific Cruzbot on FR.
We need to be a bit solicitous of our Trumpkin brethren.
They are undergoing some pretty severe cognitive dissonance as they discover that the guy who has insisted to them that he is the ultimate ‘winner’ is in fact just another jadrool loser blowhard.
Exactly.....Trump is a leftist.
As the Zen Master said: “We’ll see.”
...............................................
My bet is that while he may have started the chain reaction that will lead to Trump’s ouster from the GOP race, once Trump is gone, the GOP Establishment hacks will then use the same tricks... err, excuse me... Rules.. to oust Ted.
And if they DON’T do that, it will confirm what millions have already started to suspect: That Ted Cruz is a stealth establishmentarian, and the hardcore Constitutional Conservative thing was just an act.
It's Trump or Notrump. GOP delenda est.
“But if he doesn’t there’s a much better chance that Cruz will be nominated on the second ballot than Trump”
You’re not allowed to divide by zero. There is NO CHANCE that Ted Cruz is going to be nominated on the second ballot or any other ballot, at least not by the Republican Party at its planned convention in Cleveland this July.
Don't care if he was born in a manger on July 4th! A "Natural Born" citizen requires two US parents!
That was 2ndDivisionVet's tagline a few years ago, back when he apparently was focused on Barack 0bama's Presidential eligibility or lack thereof.
2ndDivisionVet is one of the bigger phonies, frauds and hypocrites we have to deal with here.
Trump’s platform: Make America Great Again
Cruz’s platform: Block Trump
Cruz winning by manipulating, lying to and probably bribing delegates. Trump winning the people. Trump winning the AMERICA FIRST voters.
Among the things I wonder about, this lovely morning:
Why wouldn’t Trump get his magic number on a second ballot?
and, Will conservatives ever get what we want by voting?
Excellent post.
I would also add that Donald Trump is a lot like Winston Churchill in that he’s more vulgar than the polished politicians. But he’s sounding the alarms of the advancing Islamic state much like Churchill warned of the advance of Nazism. The politicians laughed at Churchill’s warning of Hitler. He faced an uphill battle against the elite masses but turned out he was right.
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