Posted on 04/09/2016 10:43:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Just over a month ago, after Trump’s big win in Nevada and after Cruz’s SEC state southern strategy fell short amidst the Trump tidal wave across the south, it looked like Trump had the momentum to prevail against a fractured field. Trump thought it was over, and was confident enough to hold unifying post-primary press conference events like a President. As more March contests took place however, the persistent overperformance of Cruz (in places like Kansas, Wyoming and Maine) and underperformance of Rubio that led finally to Rubio’s withdrawal after Florida. Despite Kasich staying in, the race has winnowed and clarified to the point where Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump.
And what happened? While Trump won in Arizona, in part due to early votes in the Arizona primary and a favorable state for his immigration message, since then it’s been Cruz domination:
◾Cruz won Utah with 69% of the vote, sweeping all of Utah’s 40 delegates.
◾Cruz won delegates out of Louisiana that were available.
◾Cruz then won the North Dakota delegate race, taking 18 out of 25 delegates. Trump got only 1 publicly supporting delegate.
◾Cruz won in Wisconsin, getting close to 50% of the vote and winning 36 out of the 42 delegates by winning most Congressional districts, with just 6 delegates for Trump.
◾Cruz won the Colorado delegate selection process, winning all of the delegate races, either with Cruz bound delegates or Cruz-supporting unbound delegates, a total of 34 delegates.
◾Cruz has been winning the ‘other’ nomination race, the race for actual delegates, even when bound to Trump. In places like Georgia, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and many other states. For example, this weekend in Iowa, a CD is sending #CruzCrew delegates to Iowa.
@CCPAC4Cruz 5m5 minutes ago Sweep for #CruzCrew delegates in #IA02 #OnToCleveland
The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.
As of right now, The Greenpapers has soft pledged total at:
◾758 Trump
◾533 Cruz
◾732 available (via primaries) to be bound
◾77 unpledged available
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Should Trump get 50% of the remaining, above the 45% he’s gotten so far, Trump would have 1120 delegates after June 7th. This is why today, PredictIt.org says: “Traders give a brokered convention a 70% chance.”
With Trump’s complete failure to win the delegate race, with him losing steam in primaries and getting punked in almost every caucus and activist-filled GOP convention, it’s become almost a certainty that if Trump can’t get to Cleveland either at or very close to 1237 bound delegates, that he will fail to have sufficient delegates to actually win the nomination.
“The convention is an extension of the democratic process. … I am confident that we are going to win a contested convention.” – Ted Cruz, 4/9/16
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot. Victory will go to Cruz, the man who’s run the best campaign and is indeed the best candidate. And history will look back at this week and the Wisconsin victory and other wins this week as the turning point.
I don’t know about 172.
Is that a delegate total of unbound?
Look at the twitter linked video in #121, it tells you there is a coup going on and it’s bigger than Cruz. Cruz is just a stooge at this point.
Look at #121. Horrifying. America could be lost soon and I’m not engaging in hysterics. There is a coup going on.
The people that are stealing this are not Cruz supporters. They are loyalists to Romney. Romney is still the head of the GOP. He’s the ‘mastermind’.
Romney has access to all the district and precinct members. He has the database control. He has people send out flyers and emails to ascertain who is for Trump, who is for not-Trump. He drills down to who is #NeverTrump and then he has his people dispatch them with marching orders. That is the coup action.
Look at #121.
It’s not a fantasy. It is not even my thought. It is in a report by experienced people.
I can tell you this, Post #121 is not a fantasy.
Now take your crap somewhere else. Don’t post to me again.
Take your crap somewhere else. Get lost.
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot.
******************
This is an opinion piece but this is pure conjecture. If Trump is a few delegates short why is it more likely Ted can make up a several hundred delegate gap on the second ballot? Not addressed in the article one of many reason the article and title is is not convincing. This is a lifeline to Cruz supporters as Ted will be eliminated from the possibility of a first ballot victory by the end of the month. Trump will then become the presumptive nominee.
Because many delegates are released to vote their preference on subsequent ballots, to answer your question about the ‘delegate gap’. I’m not saying the majority of Rubio or Kasich delegates would go to Cruz, but they might, which is why the Trump folks’ claim that it will all be ‘over’ after New York is just as much wishful thinking as they say this article is for Cruz folks.
The question is, if Trump drops out after the convention, is he allowed to pick the nominee?
> “You claim Cruz is ‘owned’, but provide no evidence for it.”
Some people are as dumb as a rock or are living under one.
The news has been inundated with the endorsements of the GOP establishment to Cruz, to the appearance of Neil Bush to oversee his campaign finances. That’s all the evidence that any thinking person with at least two brain cells needs to have.
Why don’t you create a home page and tell us something about yourself ?
No, in fact it is not. Endorsing someone does not mean you own them. Does Dennis Rodman, for example, ‘own’ Trump?
Does a candidate’s campaign staffer ‘own’ them, because they work for them? Cruz’s dad endorsed Trump’s spokeswoman... does that mean Cruz owns Trump? Get real.
Alternately, I could say Trump is slavishly devoted to Hillary because he actually gave money to her campaign. OMG Trump is owned by Hillary! Or Hillary is owned by Trump! Who can keep it straight?!?
Certainly not a Trumpster, apparently ;)
That's just more lies and/or magical thinking from a Trump cultist, another person who has been deceived into abandoning rational thinking and instead worshiping at the feet of their dear leader. Trump does not even have 2 million more votes than Cruz. Since when does 1.9 million translate to "millions and millions?"
More importantly, Trump only has 37% of the votes overall. Almost 2/3rds of the voters have voted for someone else. The vast majority of the voters don't want him and that silent majority will be silent no more. We will happily and proudly crush his chances to take over the party and hand the election to Hillary at the convention. That is how politics worked. If you're not comfortable playing this game, I recommend tiddly winks.
Thank you, no. :P
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/3419304/posts?page=121#121
“It’s dead, Jim.
Check out @WDFx2EU’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/WDFx2EU/status/719067525972041728?s=09 “
Hostage, Weston, Thanks for finding this info!
Pingout, for coup-in-progress!!!!
Also see this; shows ted is a prevaricator of the 1st order:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3419054/posts?page=213#213
You are the most gullible goofball imaginable. So Trump engages in dirty deals all his life, then suddenly claims he’s “seen the light” right before he wants to win the prize of the most powerful position in the world, and you believe him? What a laugh. That would be like Hillary Clinton believing Bill Clinton after getting caught with Monica if he told her he would never screw around again, that was absolutely the last time.
Cruz has never done any of the things you say. He’s never “gone along to get along.” He is all about stopping the waste, fraud and corruption. You’re absolutely blinded to the truth by your fanatical worship of Trump.
I don't see how this can happen. The party leaders can't arbitrarily change these kinds of rules at the convention. Only a majority of the delegates that are there can vote to change a rule as important as this. And it makes no sense that a 1237 delegate majority who are bound to Trump would be the very same ones who would vote to un-bind themselves before the first ballot.
Don't forget that even if a handful of the Trump majority are fifth columnists, that handful, in order to be part of an absolute majority voting to overturn the rules before the first ballot, would need a heckuva lot more than just the Cruz delegates ... They'd also have to join with every single delegate pledged to Rubio & Kasich & Carson and all the other also-rans, and even then would still be far short of a majority unless they can convince almost every single UN-pledged delegate to join with them. This is bordering on the realm of the fantastic.
OTOH if you believe that a VERY large chunk of pledged Trump delegates might actually be 5th columnists, that would mean you have zero faith in Trump's team's ability to locate people who truly support him to run as delegates.
Now that it’s down to only 2 one/half candidates, if Donald Trump doesn’t get more than 50% in NY, it will be embarrassing for him.
The rot is wide and deep!
As another (more or less) Cruz supporter (I prefer Cruz but I’ll vote Trump because I want a first round decision at the convention), here’s my comment from two days ago:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3418672/posts?page=16#16
Cruz won 11 states:
ID, WY, UT, TX,
OK, KS, AL, ND,
IA, WI, ME.
He has roughly 505 to 517 delegates, 32-33% of committed delegates, which is enough to be a serious contender.
Trump won 20 states:
HI, NV, AZ, MO,
AR, LA, MI, IL,
KY, TN, MS, AL,
GA, FL, VA, NC,
SC, MA, VT, NH.
He has roughly 743 to 758 delegates, 47% of committed delegates, which makes him a strong front runner but not (yet) the winner.
John Kasich is a footnote in the race, with 143 or 144 delegates.
There are something like 108 to 114 unassigned delegates, and 186 to 188 delegates assigned to candidates who dropped out who could cross over to Trump, Cruz, or even Kasich.
____________________________________________________________
If Cruz gets ALL of the unassigned, plus the Rubio, Jeb, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Paul delegates, that would put him in the lead but still under 50%. Cruz cannot do it without the Kasich delegates too.
If Trump gets 32% of the unassigned, plus the same share of the Rubio, Jeb, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Paul delegates, that would put him over 50%. If Trump can’t even get 32% of those delegates, (1) he’s not the man I think he is, and (2) he doesn’t deserve the nomination. Include the Kasich delegates once they are no longer bound to the traitor, and Trump needs 21% of the non-Cruz delegates. It’s not being “stolen” from him if Trump doesn’t get over 50%; that just means he’s just not good enough at politics to close the deal.
Note: If assigned Trump delegates defect in the first round or even in later rounds but while Trump is still the front runner, then the nomination is being stolen from him. Trump needs to interact with his delegates, court them, build their loyalty, and in all respects work to make sure that doesn’t happen.
That Obama was allowed to be President doesn’t imply that Cruz will be. The MSM allows Democrats to get away with things they will never allow Republicans to. The Hillary campaign will be only too happy to point out Cruz’s foreign birth and the fact that he was still a citizen of a foreign country until 2014. Bet on it.
Forget the real courts. Hillary will try Cruz in the court of public opinion, and she only has to keep Cruz from getting a few percent of the vote in a few purple states to win. Incidentally, those three purple states are OH, VA, and FL, where Cruz came in third.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.