Posted on 04/09/2016 10:43:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Just over a month ago, after Trump’s big win in Nevada and after Cruz’s SEC state southern strategy fell short amidst the Trump tidal wave across the south, it looked like Trump had the momentum to prevail against a fractured field. Trump thought it was over, and was confident enough to hold unifying post-primary press conference events like a President. As more March contests took place however, the persistent overperformance of Cruz (in places like Kansas, Wyoming and Maine) and underperformance of Rubio that led finally to Rubio’s withdrawal after Florida. Despite Kasich staying in, the race has winnowed and clarified to the point where Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump.
And what happened? While Trump won in Arizona, in part due to early votes in the Arizona primary and a favorable state for his immigration message, since then it’s been Cruz domination:
◾Cruz won Utah with 69% of the vote, sweeping all of Utah’s 40 delegates.
◾Cruz won delegates out of Louisiana that were available.
◾Cruz then won the North Dakota delegate race, taking 18 out of 25 delegates. Trump got only 1 publicly supporting delegate.
◾Cruz won in Wisconsin, getting close to 50% of the vote and winning 36 out of the 42 delegates by winning most Congressional districts, with just 6 delegates for Trump.
◾Cruz won the Colorado delegate selection process, winning all of the delegate races, either with Cruz bound delegates or Cruz-supporting unbound delegates, a total of 34 delegates.
◾Cruz has been winning the ‘other’ nomination race, the race for actual delegates, even when bound to Trump. In places like Georgia, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and many other states. For example, this weekend in Iowa, a CD is sending #CruzCrew delegates to Iowa.
@CCPAC4Cruz 5m5 minutes ago Sweep for #CruzCrew delegates in #IA02 #OnToCleveland
The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.
As of right now, The Greenpapers has soft pledged total at:
◾758 Trump
◾533 Cruz
◾732 available (via primaries) to be bound
◾77 unpledged available
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Should Trump get 50% of the remaining, above the 45% he’s gotten so far, Trump would have 1120 delegates after June 7th. This is why today, PredictIt.org says: “Traders give a brokered convention a 70% chance.”
With Trump’s complete failure to win the delegate race, with him losing steam in primaries and getting punked in almost every caucus and activist-filled GOP convention, it’s become almost a certainty that if Trump can’t get to Cleveland either at or very close to 1237 bound delegates, that he will fail to have sufficient delegates to actually win the nomination.
“The convention is an extension of the democratic process. … I am confident that we are going to win a contested convention.” – Ted Cruz, 4/9/16
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot. Victory will go to Cruz, the man who’s run the best campaign and is indeed the best candidate. And history will look back at this week and the Wisconsin victory and other wins this week as the turning point.
This is the week Ted Cruz and the GPOe killed the Republican party.
It’s dead, Jim.
Check out @WDFx2EU’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/WDFx2EU/status/719067525972041728?s=09
Really so Cruz is going tri lose Nebraska and SD?
And even less for trump.
Cruz is GOPe but he aggravates them
Neil Bush is now his bundler in chief
Every major GOPe Superpac is dumping money on Cruz
GOPe operatives are stacking anti Trump delegates to unbound anywhere they can often known Cruz supporters
So you can save that Cruz is not GOPe canard
That Rush Limbaugh bullshit
He’s not their first choice but they would rather lose to Hillary than see Trump win
If they steal this from a Trump lose is precisely what they will do
Hamilton was never my favorite founder. Just because he lived back then doesn’t mean he ‘got’ Liberty. Hamilton was, in many ways, the founding father of Big Government. Radical Progressive Woodrow Wilson was a big fan of Hamilton’s, too. Perhaps Trump is, as well. I, however, am not.
You really are dipping into the personal attacks a bit much. Be careful, just because Little Donald loves to resort to them doesn’t mean you can serve them up with impunity here.
Until Woodrow Wilson, there was NO Federal income tax at all! Our government collected the money to run the government with TARIFFS!
The nation/government was divided between the FEDERALISTS and the ANTI-FEDERALISTS!
The European "ENLIGHTENMENT MOVEMENT" included some real nut jobs, such as Rousseau, who would be/is considered to be an EXTREME LEFTY today.
This nation was based on English Common law, Judeo-Christian and Masonic principles, and the good old Protestant work ethic.
This has ALWAYS, until very recently, been a NATIONALISTIC/PATRIOTIC and PROTECTIONIST one.
In response to your post, isn’t this where Manafort comes in with, and correct me if I’m wrong, plan 172?
It’s remarkable how much the Trump folks have to keep expanding the definition of ‘GOPe’ so that it encompasses everyone on their Enemies List. Gosh, I remember just last year they were saying Cruz would be an ineffective President because he couldn’t work with anyone, whereas Trump knew how to negotiate.
The times they are a’changin’, it would seem.
I’ve gotten to the point that I won’t even read his replies anymore. There is nothing there to respond to because he isn’t hear to have intelligent debate. He is just here to bait people. Like a typical troll he gets his jollies from your replies. Just ignore him :)
Teddy is and ALWAYS has been a HUGE "insider" and goes along to get along most of the time. His silly, flash-in-the-pan pretense at being an outsider and a conservative are a sham.
Trump hates the pay to play/crony Capital crap and wants to do away with it. He did, to play the game and to get things done that he wanted to get done. You really don't understand any subject at all.
Trump, unlike Cruz, wants to clean up D.C ., stop the waste and corruption and do what's right!
But please don't vote for him; we don't want you to soil yourself by doing what's right. LOL
Check your math. The article is correct in calculating 65%.
1237 total needed
758 in hand
479 remainder needed
732 remaining available in primaries
= 65% of remaining available delegates.
Given that Trump has captured only 45% of those delegates allocated so far, that's a steep hill to climb.
I understand quite a bit more than you seem to be willing to give me credit for.
You DO realize that tariffs are essentially just taxes in a different form, right? They get passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices, all the while stifling trade, employment, and innovation.
The Federalist/Anti-Federalist era ended LONG before Wilson. And Hamilton, Mr. Protectionist, was a Federalist (hint - the Federalists were the ‘Big Government’ guys of their era)
All intellectual movements contain people all over the radar. Just because Rousseau was a product of the same era does not mean he was a classical liberal.
Now keep telling me how I don’t understand Anything about this nation’s founding. Little Donald calls people names (that’s part of why I call him ‘Little Donald’). You can call me ignorant, but that doesn’t make it so.
You’ll vote Cruz if Cruz is nominee right?
Next week Cruz will lose too many of the remaining 892 .....he loses 19 and he’s lost unless GOPe can steal it for him via unbound delegates
Trump can win without GOPe if he gets 53% of remaining delegates
Cruz can only win via GOPe carrying him over the finish line
Cruz aggravates them with his grandstanding that goes nowhere but he’s one of them
They don’t like him and they don’t think he can win either with his manner
But Trump could end them and they know it
Losing with Ted beats winning with Trump
The GOPe wins with Trump in reality they are gone
And just WHAT do you do, as a self employed what? I asked, because I doubted that you have ever employed many people, run several extensive businesses, and had no need nor the ability to be a BIG DONOR, which you are incapable oif understanding.
That's it...$100,000? Sheeeeeeeeeesh, what a pittance. But never fear, that shall soon shrink to nothing, IF Hillary, Bernie, Teddy, or some "chosen" GOPEer becomes the next president and you can kiss your present life and your future bye bye.
You claim to "cherish" liberty, yet are more then happy to lose it.
How old are you?
Yes if trump gets 1237 and somehow isn’t the nominee yes the republicans will lose. But outside of fantasy land neither scenario is happening.
Trump won’t get 1237
If a miracle happens and he does then the GOP won’t steal it.
It's over. Trump has won.
The rest of your scenario is a fantasy.
However, what if...???
1. Trump wins <1237 delegates by state primary rules.
What then...???
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates, not 53%. And in either case, that’s a higher percentage than he’s proven capable of earning thus far.
As for ‘winning with Trump’, maybe. But a lot of conservatives like me will stay home or vote Libertarian rather than have to vote for another RINO like Trump.
I’d rather lose on principal than win by becoming like the other side.
Your post is very silly and making a reply, as though you know 2DV's mind, is foolish.
Attempting to put words in my mouth and making all kinds of peculiar assumptions about me, reflects rather badly on you; NOT on me. Bless your heart.
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