Posted on 03/18/2016 3:30:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
From the last Morning Jolt of the week:
Is Ted Cruz Going to Be Able to Pull This Off? Right now, as a #NeverTrump guy, I'm rooting hard for Ted Cruz. We haven't seen any polls conducted after Rubio's departure from the race - either in key upcoming states or nationally - so we don't have a good sense of whether anti-Trump Republicans are coalescing around him. Tuesday Arizona holds its primary and Utah holds its caucus. At first glance, those are natural Cruz states, right?
[Cue ominous music.]
Notice that we've had two polls of Arizona Republicans - you know, not too far from Texas* - and Trump's well ahead of Cruz in both. The two polls were conducted before Rubio dropped out, so maybe Rubio's 10 to 12 percent will shift to Cruz and help the Texas senator make up the deficit of... 12-14 points.
Uh-oh.
The last Utah poll was in mid-February, and had Rubio 24, Cruz 22, Trump 18. Caucuses usually have low turnout, but the Utah one may turn out quite different:
For its presidential preference caucus next week, the Beehive State's Republican Party will allow any Utahn outside or inside the state to vote online. This will be the first time any political party has allowed online voting for a presidential primary election in the nation.
"We're stepping out on the national stage in a way we never have before," Bryan J. Smith, the executive director of the Utah Republican Party, said during a recent Utah caucus preparatory meeting. "This time it matters in more ways than you think."
The Utah Republican Party said its new method of voting will mainly help families, workers, missionaries and military workers throughout the world, who can't be in town for voting. It also may help Utah mothers, who find themselves swamped with child care and work.
A week from now, if Trump wins Arizona and Cruz wins Utah... do people begin to doubt whether Cruz can win a one-on-one race against Trump? Or do anti-Trump Republicans begin to really turn their ire against John Kasich for sticking around?
Politico reports, "Marco Rubio is close to endorsing Ted Cruz, but the two proud senators -- and recent fierce rivals -- have some details to work out first. Cruz has to ask for the Rubio's endorsement, and both sides need to decide that it will make a difference, according to sources familiar with the thinking of both senators."
If you're Cruz, why wouldn't you ask?
Meanwhile, one more ominous note for the #NeverTrump forces. According to the Associated Press count, Trump has 678 delegates, and needs 1,237. He's 559 delegates away from winning the nomination, and 1,059 remain. Can Trump win 53 percent of the remaining delegates?
Even if you feel confident in saying "no, Trump won't win that many delegates" - and yeah, that's a high bar to clear going forward - so far Trump has won about 46 percent of the delegates available so far. (He's done so with 37 percent of the votes cast in Republican primaries and caucuses so far.) Assume Trump maintains his current level of support throughout the rest of the process, and he'll get 46 percent of the remaining 1,059 delegates. That gives him 492 more delegates.
Trump would enter the convention in Cleveland with 1,170 delegates, just 67 short of what he needs. (It's easy to picture Trump's first phone call going to John Kasich, currently sitting there with 144 delegates.) Yes, you might hear talk or calls for a Cruz-Rubio ticket, but Trump will argue, with justification, he's won 94 percent of what was needed to be the nominee.
Derailing Trump will require a big surge from Cruz from here on out. Can he do it?
* Rule one: Look at a map before writing about which states are next to each other. Rule two: Don't write sentences like this before coffee.
Yes, I was thinking majority of the original.
If you meant a plurality of state delegations, Ted already has 5 +.
If you mean a plurality of delegates, then Trump would need to quit winning and allow Ted to catch up.
[Cruz supporter]
Honestly, I doubt it. Too little support from the GOPe, too late. I am still predicting 1,300 ish delegates for Trump prior to the convention. Enough for the nomination on the first round of votes.
No Ted Cruz is not going to make it. He was never going to make it. If Trump had not gotten into the race Cruz would be losing to Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio at this point.
After AZ Trump is going to be so far ahead of Cruz that he really should start calling for Cruz to drop out.
Cruz better not wait too long to try to cut a deal with Trump for Scalia’s spot on the bench either. I think the VP ship has sailed.
I just downloaded the convention rules.
It's not rule 40(b), it's really rule 16(a)(2) that people should focus on.
(2) For any manner of binding or allocating delegates under these rules, if a delegate (i) casts a vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention inconsistent with the delegate’s obligation under state law or state party rule, (ii) nominates or demonstrates support under Rule No. 40 for a presidential candidate other than the one to whom the delegate is bound or allocated under state law or state party rule, or (iii) fails in some other way to carry out the delegate’s affirmative duty under state law or state party rule to cast a vote at the national convention for a particular presidential candidate, the delegate shall be deemed to have concurrently resigned as a delegate and the delegate’s improper vote or nomination shall be null and void. Thereafter the secretary of the convention shall record the delegate’s vote or nomination in accordance with the delegate’s obligation under state law or state party rule. This subsection does not apply to delegates who are bound to a candidate who has withdrawn his or her candidacy, suspended or terminated his or her campaign, or publicly released his or her delegates.
This means that Rubio's delegates are free to vote to for anyone in round 1, as are those of anyone else who has delegates who has suspended their campaigns.
This might also explain why Kasich is not dropping out. If he suspends, rule 16 frees all of his Ohio delegates, who would likely vote for Trump in round 1. It's only a matter of time, though, before Kasich has to suspend.
Trump and Cruz should be lobbying these delegates now. If Cruz sees no path forward or runs out of money and is forced to suspend, then his freed delegates will vote for the only name in nomination.
-PJ
So then Trump's voters would have voted for Bush or Rubio?
No. Cruz would need to get about 255 more delegates than Trump.
You are missing the point. There is only a small faction of the Republican base that is attracted to Ted Cruz. That is why he continually polls under 20% nationally.
If Trump were not in the race GOP voter turnout would be much lighter to start with since many people are only voting because of Trump. And a majority of GOP voters are just not as conservative or at least sounding conservative as Cruz. So yes they would have voted for one of the other candidates. Mitt I mean Scott Walker might have been able to be a contender if not for Trump. And I seriously retch as I say that. Rick Perry might have done better also.
The polls say the exact opposite. Want links?
Hahahaha! Exactly.
No.
Like that one showing Trump losing NY State by 17 points; drill down into the internals and it shows it was weighted by 2012 results.
Why is BLM attacking Trump long before he becomes the nominee? Why has Hillary only attacked Trump?
No, you're changing the point, because your first point, that Cruz would be losing to Bush or Rubio, is wrong.
There is only a small faction of the Republican base that is attracted to Ted Cruz. That is why he continually polls under 20% nationally.
Why do you cite erroneous polls, when we have real results?? Cruz currently gets 27% of the vote.
If Trump were not in the race GOP voter turnout would be much lighter to start with since many people are only voting because of Trump.
Even if all of Trump's voters would have sat out, Cruz would still have been winning. And if Trump's voters would not have sat out, numerous polls say that Cruz is the second choice of Trump voters.
Hillary has attacked Cruz plenty. Google it.
In a word... No.
Look at his “born-on” date.
OK so now Cruz is at 27% in basically a two man race. It just proves my point. Only a small minority of GOP voters are evangelical conservatives. The rest are center right or middle of the road. They just are not into Cruz. He is not going to be the nominee for that reason.
“Cruz is starting to accept the support of the establishment.”
It’s not surprising at all when you consider the possibility that he’s been a stealth candidate for the establishment from the beginning, which I do.
You don’t have that many ties to the establishment for as long as he has (being funded by them too) and be an “outsider”.
Cruz = Bush III
Once they get enough, they will toss him into the ditch. Cruz is well aware of that, no doubt. But, at the same time, he is using them. And will ditch them.
The two share the same objective -- holding Trump under a majority, creating a contested convention.
When the establishment tries to slide Paul Ryan thru the convention, Cruz will join with Trump to deny them their candidate.
What Cruz is after is a third ballot head-to-head showdown with Trump.
If Trump were in Cruz' position, wouoldn't he do the same?
No, he isn’t.
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