Posted on 03/14/2016 1:15:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is holding five rallies across Illinois on Monday in the lead-up to its Super Tuesday vote tomorrow. Although the latest polls show Trump with a lead in Illinois, the Cruz rallies highlight the superior ground effort of his campaign. Donald Trump currently has around 36 percent support in Illinois. Cruz is around 25 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 19 percent. While Trump may win the overall vote in Illinois, it is possible he ends up with fewer delegates than Cruz, or even Kasich.
In Illinois, the winner of the statewide vote receives 15 of the state's delegates. Another 54 delegates are awarded through votes in the state's 18 congressional districts.
In each district, voters vote for a candidate and then must vote for up to three individuals to serve as delegates, each of whom are affiliated with one of the candidates....
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Yeah...I smell a lot of “if” comin’ off their plan.
IIRC, the same arguments were made in South Carolina, and Trump ended up winning each CD.
Shoot, read the excerpt even.
Nice to see you posting posting more wishful thinking since Cruz came out of the shadows this last few days to share he is full on GOPe.
Good luck with that :)
Oh please. Texas was embarrassing for him. Maine was a caucus nobody attended and Iowa was stolen.
Or the “secret army” like was posted dozens of times by the OP before South Carolina.
And after Cruz selling-out the the Chiraq jihadists, he can kiss that state goodbye for sure.
If people polled in Florida became more likely to vote for Trump because of Chicago, then you know people in downstate Illinois aren’t going to flock to Cruz for supporting it either.
Loser Cruzer, friend of BLM and Muslim agitators, everywhere...
Jeb and Neil Bush echo your sentiments.
“Vote Cruz!”
For my finger to hit the Cruz tab at the voting place, you would have to kill me and cut off my finger.
GOPe no longer loathes Cruz. He's now with Bush's, Romney, NRO, and GOP.
Or reasoned analysis. Trump underperforms his polling leads almost every time, even when the vote is just 1-2 days after the poll.
Iowa was supposed to be a 4.7 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 3.3 (8 pt drop in the Trump lead at the actual vote)
Jan 26-31 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, Emerson), Feb 1 vote...
SC was a 17.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 9.9 (7.2 pt drop)
Feb 16-19 polls (FOX, SC House, Emerson), Feb 20 vote...
OKL was a 11.4 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 6.1 (17.5 pt drop)
Feb 28 Monmouth and SoonerNews9 poll, Mar 1 vote
VA was a 14.5 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.8 (11.7 pt drop)
Feb 26 CBS poll, Feb 24 Monmouth poll, Mar 1 vote (Roanoke had him up 23 on Feb 24)
TN was a 18.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 14.2 (3.8 pt drop)
Feb 23 poll Mar 1 vote
VT was a 15.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.3 (12.7 pt drop)
Feb 17 VPR poll Mar 1 vote
Alaska was a 4.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 2.9 (7 pt drop)
Alaska Dispatch poll, Mar 1 vote
Texas was a 9.0 point win for Cruz just days before the vote... and Cruz won by 17.1 (8.1 pt drop)
Feb 26-28 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, Fox26), Mar 1 vote...
(Emerson and ARG had Trump within 3 and 1 point respectively on Feb 28)
KS was a 6.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 24.9 (31.0 pt drop)
Mar 3 poll, Mar 5 vote
ID was a 11.2 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 17.3 (28.5 pt drop)
IdahoWeekly Mar 6 poll, Mar 8 vote
MS was a 24 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 17.3 (6.7 pt drop)
Feb 29 poll, Mar 8 vote
An average last-moment drop of 12.9 points in these 11 states. When it comes time to actually vote, Trump's leads crumble by double digits.
Caucus states and primaries, before and after candidates drop out, liberal and conservative states, all with one common theme... Trump isn't pulling as many actual large vote wins as poll votes and impressive rallies...
Polls may not be accurate (another common Trump supporter dismissal), but the trend is clear... Trump's leads underperform the polling, and by significant numbers.
In other words, people are voting for their chosen candidate for the nomination, but not completely the ballot by voting for delegates.
Though I still don't get how Ted ends up with unmarked delegates. Whole thing is screwy.
Oh...they still loathe him.
They are hoping they can coopt him...or more likely, throw him to the curb should they be able to get their way.
I do not believe they will. I believe Cruz will use them if he can...but I do not believe for a minute that he will trust them or ultimately do their bidding.
The best thing that can happen is for this to turn into a pure two man race between Trump (who will most probably win) and Cruz.
It shows, as nothing else could...how out of touch, out of sync, and ultimately out of power the GOPe is.
So now Illinois is a prize?
Since when?
I have a feeling Kasich is going to find out how much Ohio loathes him...
That ballot, tho
When Trump sweeps nearly everything but Ohio tomorrow, the race is effectively over.
Your whole thesis is predicated on picking a poll that was wrong, and then making up some story about some magical secret army of Cruz voters that prove that all polls were wrong??
Why dont you take every poll done in all of those places? All of those states did not have one or 2 polls done.
And you didn’t even include Michigan, further exposing this as goofy numerology and woo in search of a ghost Cruz army.
Even contesting Illinois in November would be HUGE.
It’s traditionally been one of the states (like Cal and NY) where Dems don’t have to spend a penny for the evs.
IL was +16 for Caliph Baraq in 2012.
I hope you are right.
His antics these last few days have been way over the top and shows what a p9olitical animal he is...and how deeply he is owned by the GOPe.
Considering Breitbart is no longer a reliable news source, maybe the mods can do something to discourage posting from that site.
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