Or reasoned analysis. Trump underperforms his polling leads almost every time, even when the vote is just 1-2 days after the poll.
Iowa was supposed to be a 4.7 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 3.3 (8 pt drop in the Trump lead at the actual vote)
Jan 26-31 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, Emerson), Feb 1 vote...
SC was a 17.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 9.9 (7.2 pt drop)
Feb 16-19 polls (FOX, SC House, Emerson), Feb 20 vote...
OKL was a 11.4 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 6.1 (17.5 pt drop)
Feb 28 Monmouth and SoonerNews9 poll, Mar 1 vote
VA was a 14.5 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.8 (11.7 pt drop)
Feb 26 CBS poll, Feb 24 Monmouth poll, Mar 1 vote (Roanoke had him up 23 on Feb 24)
TN was a 18.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 14.2 (3.8 pt drop)
Feb 23 poll Mar 1 vote
VT was a 15.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.3 (12.7 pt drop)
Feb 17 VPR poll Mar 1 vote
Alaska was a 4.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 2.9 (7 pt drop)
Alaska Dispatch poll, Mar 1 vote
Texas was a 9.0 point win for Cruz just days before the vote... and Cruz won by 17.1 (8.1 pt drop)
Feb 26-28 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, Fox26), Mar 1 vote...
(Emerson and ARG had Trump within 3 and 1 point respectively on Feb 28)
KS was a 6.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 24.9 (31.0 pt drop)
Mar 3 poll, Mar 5 vote
ID was a 11.2 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 17.3 (28.5 pt drop)
IdahoWeekly Mar 6 poll, Mar 8 vote
MS was a 24 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 17.3 (6.7 pt drop)
Feb 29 poll, Mar 8 vote
An average last-moment drop of 12.9 points in these 11 states. When it comes time to actually vote, Trump's leads crumble by double digits.
Caucus states and primaries, before and after candidates drop out, liberal and conservative states, all with one common theme... Trump isn't pulling as many actual large vote wins as poll votes and impressive rallies...
Polls may not be accurate (another common Trump supporter dismissal), but the trend is clear... Trump's leads underperform the polling, and by significant numbers.
Your whole thesis is predicated on picking a poll that was wrong, and then making up some story about some magical secret army of Cruz voters that prove that all polls were wrong??
Why dont you take every poll done in all of those places? All of those states did not have one or 2 polls done.
And you didn’t even include Michigan, further exposing this as goofy numerology and woo in search of a ghost Cruz army.
Interesting how you left out three states to make your point as if those three states don’t count.
Tell us teacher, how Trump did in Michigan, Mass., and New Hampshire !!
Thanks for the good news!
Polls measure support not turnout.
Nice research. Took awhile to put together didn’t it? And yet, who is still in the lead? Took me no time to figure that.
You use the tagline Teacher, but seem to be quite naive about what goes on - let’s talk about cheating in Iowa and point shaving in some of the other states. Do you think it doesn’t happen? Oh-yes, it does, and it happens in footbabll games as well. Wise up and educate yourself.
Nice rundown of the polling history this year. I am guessing that some of these differences are because of democrats claiming to be GOP in the poll, and just couldn't do the deed when they showed up to vote.