Posted on 03/09/2016 2:52:45 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
I have performed some math showing Polls versus Results
Ted Cruz has been dominating the polls recently. Every time the polls say he is going to perform X, he outdoes them with two minor exceptions.
(GRAPH-AT-LINK)
As seen in the graphic above Ted Cruz has been outdoing the Republican Polls by 15% or higher on average. In two cases we could not identify how much higher because of lack of Polls, these are Hawaii and Maine. However an examination of his wins shows either an extreme bias in the polls, or that the vote is always breaking for one candidate when it comes time to pull the lever.
An example of some of the differences, these are how much higher Ted Cruz did in actual results above the polls (RCP Average, last month or so only used)
Idaho 26.40%
Mississippi 19.30%
Kansas 19.20%
Kentucky 16.70%
Oklahoma 14.10%
Alaska 12.40%
Louisiana 10.10%
I would say it is probably fair that if it was polled Maine would be in that list as well.
In a previous effort I identified that 33% of Democrats in S. Carolina voted in the Republican Primary. This trend in Open Primaries has continued unabated by all appearances. Ted Cruz continues to dominate in closed Primaries after all....
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Honestly I don’t know. I’d expect that those delegates at least in the first round would be obligated by their state party’s rules to vote for the candidate that got the delegates because of the votes.
As for second or subsequent votes, all that is up for grabs, I think.
Regardless, the GOP has the option to change the rules up to one day prior to the Convention, IIRC. I expect we’re gonna see some pretty disgusting shady sh!t whether Trump or Cruz goes into it with the lead.
Thats the primary, not the general. Apples and oranges.
And this poll shows Cruz in 3rd place for the primary. If he’s only in 3rd place for the primary in a swing state like Florida, how does he manage a win in the general?
I was going to post that pic of Trump in his military academy uniform, but wasn’t able to. He’s the only one of the guys who has even a hint of military background.
Another thing that I’d consider is that these candidates who have “dropped out” really haven’t technically “dropped out.” IIRC they have ‘suspended’ their campaigns which I think would still entitle them to delegate representation in the first round of the Convention from the states who awarded the delegates.
The main reason for “suspension” is so that they can still keep fundraising to clear debt, etc. and still not violate FEC rules. But that also would to me seem to put a ‘hold’ on their first round delegates, too.
“...i think he can win new york and new jersey ...”
Trump will win New York and New Jersey.
Last night’s Michigan win is more proof that the blue collar union type “Joe-six-pack regular guy” demographic is going to go for Trump.
The same demographic (native blue collar NYC’er’s) will go for Trump here in New York and New Jersey - In NYC it will be Long Island, Staten Island, the b & t crowd; then upstate, Westchester, etc.
Guiliani’s endorsement of Trump has also helped to set the stage for the NYC vote for Trump.
Same for New Jersey.
This article fails. It completely fails to even mention this however ignoring it won’t make it go away! Cruz surge? Really?
Go Trump.
Because then he’ll be the nominee of one of the two major parties, with all that that entails?
Ted Cruz will never...ever, win a national general election. It’s simple, the guy ticks you off when he says “Good Morning” to you, and he has a extremely limited political base. He is also a bonafide “snake-in-the -grass”, witness his ceating & lie telling, escapades via Ben Carson & Marco Rubio. Not a nice or honest fellow!!! Cruz would get “zero’ crossover votes. He had the chance....but, he blew it badly!!! End of story!!!
Hahahaha! Yeah, that’s why he keeps winning primaries and garnering tens of millions of dollars in contributions.
Enjoy your laugh fest now....you will not be laughing for long!!! You gotta face the facts & the real world. Winning a few caucus’s & cheating in Iowa, Maine & Hawaii is no way to go through political life. Sorry....but........do not feel bad, because you have tons of company that feel the same way you do. Gotta face reality.....Ted Cruz, along with his “blood, lunatic, brother, Glenn Beck is going nowhere, politically!!!
RedState keeps the nothing burgers fresh & plentiful day after day.
TED State is to be ignored and marginalized until they are no more.
Oh, it’s far more than that, as you will soon discover.
We will see next week.
There's another 404 delegates at stake between now and then (some minor primaries on Thursday and Saturday too).
A candidate needs 1,237 delegates. Trump currently has 452, with Hawaii still to be calculated. If Trump sweeps, or close to sweeps, the next few primaries, he will be in a position where Cruz cannot beat him.
I'll wait until next Wednesday morning.
You posted it.
Trump will definitely win NY and NJ, CT is 50/50.
Cruz has no military experience.
At least Trump went to a military academy.
As for the rest Rubio, Paul, Bush, Walker, Christie, Huckabee, Santorum and Jindal all had ZERO military service.
Nevertheless, the military by far loves Trump compared to any other candidate.
Nice try....
Yes it is!
Because you DON’T WIN without Democrat votes.
We are currently making progress at reducing the number of abortion facilities.
If the current demographic shift continues, then by 2024, NO CONSERVATIVE WILL EVER BE ELECTED EVER AGAIN.
The Dems will then be free to classify any opposition to abortion as a hate crime. They will be able to pass laws that ALL hospitals will have to offer abortion services as a condition of receiving any federal funds, and that ALL doctors must receive abortion training in their internships.
We will have lost, and lost for all time. You will not be happy then.
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