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Campaign Poll Finds Trump-Cruz Neck-and-Neck in SC
NewsMax ^
| February 15, 2016
| Cathy Burke
Posted on 02/15/2016 5:04:30 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
A insider poll done by the Bush Team? Yeah sounds non biased and trustworthy
To: 2ndDivisionVet
The 6th time the non existence poll is shown
3
posted on
02/15/2016 5:05:58 PM PST
by
scooby321
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Haha how long will this internal Bush poll be touted, haha.
4
posted on
02/15/2016 5:06:05 PM PST
by
toddausauras
(Trump/Cruz 2016)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Richard Quinn -- a longtime adviser to primary race dropout Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina --...
That seals the deal?
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Three other polls have come out showing what a crock this poll is. Of course, like they did with Iowa when Carson or Cruz showed up ahead of Trump, they’ll put this one out up until the election.
Let it go.
6
posted on
02/15/2016 5:08:18 PM PST
by
Kenny
(RED)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
WTF? One post here about 30 minutes ago says Trump’s up by +13 and this says they are tied? Who’s lying?
7
posted on
02/15/2016 5:09:34 PM PST
by
econjack
(I'm not bossy...I just know what you should be doing.)
To: 2ndDivisionVet; All
8
posted on
02/15/2016 5:09:38 PM PST
by
musicman
(Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Nice try 2D. That’s been posted about 15 times today, but since you are a Cruz fundraiser, I applaud your efforts on behalf of your candidate. Here’s some reality for those that didn’t see the previous 14 posts of the Bush insider poll.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3397489/posts
9
posted on
02/15/2016 5:11:00 PM PST
by
usafa92
(Ted and Heidi = Jim and Tammy Faye)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Jeb Bush poll? LOLOL...that's as funny as Cruz saying that “Trump was for abortion for 60 years”....really, Trump was “9” when he supposedly said that!!! LOLOLOL....
10
posted on
02/15/2016 5:12:32 PM PST
by
HarleyLady27
("The Force Awakens"!!! TRUMP;TRUMP;TRUMP;TRUMP!!! 100%)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Carson has an internal poll that shows him winning. So there!
11
posted on
02/15/2016 5:13:36 PM PST
by
Defiant
(RINOs are leaders of a party without voters. Trump/Cruz are leaders of voters without a party.)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Levin reports Trump is now saying he’s threatening again to run as an independent; what a pompous ass - his way or the highway. Why can’t he take the high road, keep to the issues, stop lying and knock off the personal attacks? He’s ahead (or was before last Saturday’s meltdown) so what if he dropped a few points? He will drop a lot more if he keeps on trashing his way to the nomination, hence the independent candidate threat.
12
posted on
02/15/2016 5:14:38 PM PST
by
CedarDave
(Rubio has missed more votes than any current senator; now he thinks he deserves a promotion.)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
13
posted on
02/15/2016 5:14:43 PM PST
by
bigbob
("Victorious warriors win first and then go to war" Sun Tzu.)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Bwahahahaha. The Cruzbots still pushing this “push” poll. That has the stink of desperation all over it.
To: econjack
Not
sure anyone is lying. One of the biggest assumptions in sampling for an election is turnout. A turnout of 2x larger than assumed does not merely double the raw vote for each candidate - there are major shifts in the votes cast by each half decile of additional turnout. The campaigns and their pollsters try to gauge turnout and voter intensity, and then forecast a turnout level. That is what they use to adjust the raw numbers coming in from the polling survey. It is difficult to do in normal years, but I think Trump truly represents something that political pollsters have never seen. In my view he is activating voters who may not vote very often. The usual stratification of turnout estimates is done on the basis of an answer to questions like "Of the past 4 presidential elections, in how many did you cast a ballot?" [recent] or "In all the presidential elections you have been eligible to vote, in how many have you cast ballots?" [lifetime]
My gut tells me that Trump is getting voters that are off the radar of the typical set of assumptions that pollsters use. That can lead to very inaccurate pre-election polling forecasts.
The other element is self service by campaigns. Bush can commission a poll for his campaign and dial in the turnout model applied to the results, and when he gets what he likes, he can release it through back channels to the press for whatever effect he would like.
Unless you have someone who gets to see the sampling plan, the weighting for turnout and the exact text of the polling questions, as well as the rejection rate of the pool of respondents - it's really hard to know how much faith to place in any given poll. The press today is naive enough to simply regurgitate polling results leaked to them, so, my first thought on this was to discount it heavily because it was the message the Bush campaign wanted to float, not necessary a reflection of real voter sentiment.
To: The Right wing Infidel
16
posted on
02/15/2016 6:03:33 PM PST
by
BigEdLB
(Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
C’mon man...third time (at least posted) internal Bush PAC poll that doesn’t show Bush anywhere close and two days old. I know you’re not that desperate.
17
posted on
02/15/2016 6:27:51 PM PST
by
ripnbang
("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject)
To: ripnbang
If you guys were really so sure about Don Trump marching to the nomination, you wouldn’t care what I or anyone else posted. But since you are, that tells me a lot.
To: 2ndDivisionVet
If you guys were really so sure about Don Trump marching to the nomination, you wouldnât care what I or anyone else posted. But since you are, that tells me a lot. I totally agree. But a Jebbie Bush internal poll? I should hope for Ted Cruz's sake that he has something more to hang on to than that.
19
posted on
02/15/2016 6:35:42 PM PST
by
SamAdams76
(Delegates So Far: Trump (17); Cruz (11); Rubio (10)
To: 2ndDivisionVet
Actually, if you were so sure Cruz was going to prevail you wouldn’t be grasping at straws like this. There’s got to be something more reliable or better sources that shows Cruz doing better...I’m sure you can dig it up. You’re better than that.
20
posted on
02/15/2016 6:37:41 PM PST
by
ripnbang
("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject)
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