WTF? One post here about 30 minutes ago says Trump’s up by +13 and this says they are tied? Who’s lying?
My gut tells me that Trump is getting voters that are off the radar of the typical set of assumptions that pollsters use. That can lead to very inaccurate pre-election polling forecasts.
The other element is self service by campaigns. Bush can commission a poll for his campaign and dial in the turnout model applied to the results, and when he gets what he likes, he can release it through back channels to the press for whatever effect he would like.
Unless you have someone who gets to see the sampling plan, the weighting for turnout and the exact text of the polling questions, as well as the rejection rate of the pool of respondents - it's really hard to know how much faith to place in any given poll. The press today is naive enough to simply regurgitate polling results leaked to them, so, my first thought on this was to discount it heavily because it was the message the Bush campaign wanted to float, not necessary a reflection of real voter sentiment.