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Presidential Horse Race 2016: Why a reputable pollster forecasts a Cruz win in Iowa
Richard A. Viguerie's Conservative HQ ^ | January 19, 2016 | Jeffrey A. Rendall

Posted on 01/19/2016 6:45:46 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Glancing at the latest Real Clear Politics polling average for Iowa, you see Donald Trump has retaken the lead in The Hawkeye State, 27.8 percent to Ted Cruz's 26.7 percent.

Those results are certain to set off another wave of brash rhetoric and bold predictions from The Donald himself, but before he or his supporters get too excited, the bigger picture needs to be taken into account.

Ted Cruz supportersFor example, pollster Nate Silver's very reputable FiveThirtyEight group now gives Cruz a fairly sizeable chance to beat Trump in a little less than two weeks.

Kristen East of Politico reports, "Ted Cruz ha[s] the greatest chance of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, a new polling-based forecast from FiveThirtyEight shows...

(Excerpt) Read more at conservativehq.com ...


TOPICS: Iowa; Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: cruz; iowa; tedcruz; trump
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Agree that Cruz will win Iowa, which is what makes him virtually unelectable in the general election...pandering to the evangelicals. Same as happened to Santorum and Huckabee.


41 posted on 01/19/2016 7:26:15 PM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

You’re right, I don’t know anything about him. I’m just guessing though that the people of Iowa like him. Isn’t he one of the longest serving governors? There must be some reason they keep reelecting him.


42 posted on 01/19/2016 7:26:45 PM PST by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: Alberta's Child

Why it matters...
If Cruz wins, Trump is a loser.

Just let that sink in.

It breaks his mystique of invincibility.

His cult of personality will suffer greatly.


43 posted on 01/19/2016 7:26:45 PM PST by Outlaw76 (Citizens on the Bounce!)
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To: libbylu

She was promised some post or other and even if Trump loses she will get some nice job in the Trump empire.


44 posted on 01/19/2016 7:27:18 PM PST by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: IAMNO1

I like that one. Luck or Trump. I will pick Trump.


45 posted on 01/19/2016 7:27:28 PM PST by Karl Spooner
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To: BobL

Another Atheist?


46 posted on 01/19/2016 7:28:01 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ 2016)
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To: BobL

Another Atheist?


47 posted on 01/19/2016 7:28:01 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ 2016)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Did you watch her speech?

If not, you should.

If you did, what did you think? Freep mail me if you'd prefer.

48 posted on 01/19/2016 7:29:20 PM PST by Lakeshark
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To: demshateGod

And YOU have no intellectual functions at all. It’s a miracle that you are able to post...or do you get help doing that?


49 posted on 01/19/2016 7:32:19 PM PST by nopardons
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To: Parley Baer

Yeah, Erick’s been in Cruz’s corner since he cancelled Trump from speaking at a Red State event and the world came down on him.


50 posted on 01/19/2016 7:32:33 PM PST by Kenny (RED)
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To: Lakeshark

I’m glad for Don Trump that he got a good endorsement, just as Ted Cruz has received hundreds. I don’t need to watch the video.


51 posted on 01/19/2016 7:33:40 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ 2016)
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To: IAMNO1

I think my history with Trump is similar to yours.

I could never stand him. Although I never watched his idiotic “you’re fired.” show, he would appear frequently on Fox News just to shoot off his mouth about something.

He won me over for a time when he started running because he said a bunch of things I’d been wanting to hear and his popularity and standing kept them in front of the public.

I guess my enchantment with him began to fade a few weeks ago and it disappeared completely when he began his nasty attacks on Cruz.

That twitter fest he had about Cruz ... was it Sunday? It sound petulant and deranged.

I realized the man is not trustworthy. So many people here still trust him and believe in him. It will be sad if he disappoints them but I’m pretty sure he will.


52 posted on 01/19/2016 7:34:21 PM PST by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: libbylu
libbylu, I kn ow that reality is difficult for you to grasp, but Trump supporters are extremely loyal, whilst Cruz supporters have told pollsters that they could change their minds.

Dragging Glenn around Iowa with him, isn't going to help Ted, in the next 13 days, but shall hurt him.

53 posted on 01/19/2016 7:35:51 PM PST by nopardons
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To: Mastador1

Don’t be so sure of yourself.


54 posted on 01/19/2016 7:36:23 PM PST by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Whatever it takes to secure the border. Without that, we’ll all be FORCED to be atheists, as the Democrats consolidate their stranglehold on the country.


55 posted on 01/19/2016 7:36:38 PM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Yeah, I ponder this, you phonies.

Mr. and Mrs Elmer Gantry

56 posted on 01/19/2016 7:38:23 PM PST by Karl Spooner
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To: IAMNO1

The same is even more true, re Cruz supporters, and Cruz himself and all of the news that has lately come out about him and his parents.


57 posted on 01/19/2016 7:38:53 PM PST by nopardons
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To: Lakeshark; 2ndDivisionVet
“Did you watch her speech?
If not, you should. If you did, what did you think? Freep mail me if you'd prefer.”

Just an observation, I am seeing more and more and more of this just recently on FR with FReepers either directing the pinger or poster to check something out the Donald did or said or that somebody said about him, or directing us to a link.

This is like the Stepford Wives meet the Zombie Apocalypse meets the Chinese Cultural Revolution.

58 posted on 01/19/2016 7:40:01 PM PST by IAMNO1 (Enough with the divisions. Lets get somebody in there who'll fix this mess.)
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To: doug6352

WRONG....he is winning in N.H., where Cruz is in 4th, and also in S.C, and Nevada.


59 posted on 01/19/2016 7:40:48 PM PST by nopardons
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To: Karl Spooner

All candidates, back to George Washington and beyond, fundraise. I love how the Trumpets act like it’s a sign of rampant corruption.


60 posted on 01/19/2016 7:42:01 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ 2016)
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