Posted on 09/21/2015 2:13:00 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Erick Erickson makes the case. Theory: This match-up, more than any other, would bring the most happiness to all wings of the party.
I think Trump will fade, Fiorina will fade, and Carson is already fading. They are doing so because their momentum is based more on name identification and not on records or ground games.
If we look at traditional campaign data, which under the smoke and veneer of Campaign 2016 still matters, what we will find is that Ted Cruz is laying down a hell of a ground game and has tons of cash with not nearly the burn rate that even Jeb Bush has. Cruz stands to profit the most from the collapse of Carson, Fiorina, and Trump all of whom are playing on the outsider advantages right now. Those advantages will start to go away as more traditional and necessary campaign tactics and strategies kick in like, for example, ballot access
While conservatives will gravitate rapidly to Cruz, the more establishment oriented people who recognize the party still needs a fresh face and chage will likely go to Marco Rubio. Already Im hearing that both Walker and Bush donors are looking at Rubio as their next pick. Rubio has the highest positives of any of the candidates and is, in fact, the one Republican that the Democrats desperately fear because of his perceived ability to attract women, young voters, and Hispanics
I think over the coming weeks, the campaign vultures will circle the Scott Walker campaign, looking to see if he has a pulse and, if they find none, will begin in earnest to pull voters and donors away from him. I suspect well see the more conservative elements head to Cruz and the more establishment elements head to Rubio.
Would tea partiers be happy with that? Hell yeah. What sort of conservative doesnt respect Ted Cruz? Would Trump fans? Not all, but for many Cruz will be an acceptably anti-establishment populist consolation prize. Center-righties? Of course. Theres no one in either field as likable as center-right Marco Rubio. Establishmentarians? You betcha. Not only will they have a guy in Rubio who went to bat for them on amnesty, theyll have not one but two Latino candidates left standing to represent the party after Trump spent months ranting about Mexican rapists. And not just Latino but young both Cruz and Rubio are just 44 years old. Theyre both charismatic, highly intelligent, and preternaturally polished in their public speaking. Who wouldnt enjoy this race?
Its not hard to see how the field winnows to these two either. For Rubio, its a simple matter of Scott Walkers campaign finally keeling over now that its gasping for air and the donor class reluctantly accepting that theyre pumping a dry well in Jeb Bush. If Walkers numbers dont start to improve soon, we might see donors abandon him by Halloween. Jeb will take longer to fade because of his financial support, but if Rubio leaps ahead of him in the polls and stays there for a month or two, pressure will increase on Jeb to get out of the way and let Rubio consolidate the center. Cruzs challenge is bigger in that he needs Trump, Carson, and Fiorina to fade before he become a serious threat, but as Erick says, its easy to imagine the latter two slipping and their supporters shifting to the most outsider-y insider in the race, i.e. Cruz. Meanwhile, I continue to think Trump will find an excuse to quit the race sometime this winter unless hes implausibly bounced out to such a huge lead in the polls that he looks to be a walkover winner in Iowa and/or New Hampshire. Hes not going to take his chances in those states if the polls are competitive; the damage to the Trump brand and to his own self-image will be too great if he loses. He needs to know going in that hell win or else hell drop out and spend the rest of his life telling everyone that he would have won if hed only stuck it out. Once that happens, Cruz takes off in theory.
I dont know that I agree with Erickson, though, that Cruz has a slight advantage over Rubio. I understand the argument: Cruz is well funded, hell be very strong in the SEC primary, and hes not compromised on the crucial issue of immigration the way Marco Gang of Eight Rubio is. The counterargument is that if and when Bush and Walker are out of the way, most of the donor class is going to shower Rubio with dough in the interest of stopping Cruz. And Rubio, at least in theory, has a wider base of voters than Cruz does. Hell lost most of the conservative vote to Cruz but certainly not all of it, and meanwhile centrists and center-righties will swoon over Rubio as the sunny, sensible alternative to that guy who always seems to be on Fox News calling for government shutdowns. The X factor is the calendar: If Cruz and Rubio split the early states somehow and then Cruz cleans up in the southern states, would the non-conservative parts of the party rally to Rubio after that in an all-out Not Cruz effort? Or would Cruzs momentum after his wins in the south be such that Rubio realistically couldnt catch up to him in delegates afterward? Lets hope we find out, because this would be the best GOP race in decades.
Erick Erickson is a total POS who disgraced himself by not inviting Dr. Ben Carson to the Restate forum and disinviting Trump for a contrived BS lie. He is lower than naval lint. Erick Erickson took so much incoming on his FB page that me and Mr. GG2 and hundreds of others are banned from posting. He is was so wounded that he is now reduced to posting what he eats for dinner and the recipe.
Who has heard Erick subbing for Rush lately? He’s a loser and Rush knows it. He is nothing. Who cares what Erick says or does?
GA ain’t going Carson. We will go Trump in March unless Trump drops out.
Same here, i have a better 8 ball predictor, mine says President elect Donald Trump.
That establishment vs. conservative thing is slanted. A lot of the time, region has more to do with it. People on the coasts who aren't members of any Establishment vote differently from people in the South (who may not be that conservative on some issues).
In this case, though, there is some sense to it. It's hard to see Rubio having much appeal outside "Establishment" circles. Like Jeb, he doesn't light many fires with the public. He'd be a sort of "anti-somebody else" candidate -- and those guys never fare well.
But really, for Ted Cruz to come out at number one, Trump would have to fail really spectacularly -- and the noise when he falls could make major trouble for the party.
.
I am ignoring nothing.
Trump cannot offer anything more than the bombs he has indiscriminately dropped.
He has no understanding of legislative process, and you give him high marks for that giant hole in his qualifications.
Ditto for his lack of understanding of judicial process and qualifications.
A president must make decisions of global consequence on his own understanding. If Trump were to do that, we would simply have Obama II.
That is it, pure and simple. The more he says, the more foolish he will look. He needs a smart man to do his thinking, and speak it into his ear bud so he can repeat it.
.
Rubio is a great speaker and Ted is a brainiac. If it was down to those two it would be close
.
Trump has already failed with the majority.
Had he not failed, they would already be in his corner, considering all the free face time and publicity the MSM give him.
.
No...like it or not it will be Trump vs Biden.
What are you talking about? That free face time and publicity is mostly negative advertising against Trump.
It is amazing that he has grasped and consolidated the lead as solidly as he has.
Look Carson is already dropping in the polls. He’s a nice guy but not Presidential material. He would get killed in the general election. If elected he would be ineffective. He would be re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I have respect for the guy for standing up for his beliefs but he needs to be utilized in a some other capacity.
Cruz is a class act, coming and going:
Cruz Welcomes Scott Walker to Presidential Race
HOUSTON, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, today released the following statement regarding Gov. Scott Walkers entry into the 2016 GOP campaign for President:
Scott Walker is a welcome addition to the 2016 Republican field and Im glad to have him join the race. Gov. Walker has been a successful governor of Wisconsin where he bravely took on the unions to pass important right to work legislation. His talents will sharpen the field and make us all stronger as we prepare to face Hillary in the general election.
https://www.tedcruz.org/news/cruz-welcomes-scott-walker-to-presidential-race/
.
CRUZ: I wish Gov. Walker and Tonette all the best in their continued service to Wisconsin and the country
HOUSTON, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, today released the following statement in response to the announcement that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has suspended his campaign for President:
Gov. Scott Walker is a good man, a formidable fighter, and an effective reformer. Wisconsin is considerably stronger as a result of the changes he pushed through under incredibly difficult and contentious conditions. In the presidential race, his focus on new, innovative policy ideas made the entire Republican field better. I wish Scott and Tonette all the best in their continued service to Wisconsin and the country.
If Rubio wins, many voters will stay away. Rubio has too many skeletons in his closet - the Democrats will bring them all out.
GG2,
I am not even a Carson supporter. The author stated that Carson doesn’t have a ground game. Carson DOES have a real ground game. Right now, I am willing to get along with everybody except John Ellis Bush supporters and those who claim that Fiorina did a good job with HP.
We cannot turn every factual assertion into a referendum on Trump.
Fact: Whether Carson is going to win Georgia or not, he has a real ground presence. I have seen his people at multiple events, and they aren’t hirelings like the Right to Rise folks. I have seen four or five Carson bumper stickers versus one for Trump and one for Cruz (on my own car!).
It doesn’t help Trump or Cruz or hurt John Ellis Bush, the real enemy, if we pick on other candidates who are decent men and women.
NOPE
Carson is a Class Act as well.
We are blessed
TT
**** “And call out liars like McConnell and Boehner, and hacks like John Ellis Bush.” ****
I’m 60, a lot less energy than I had just 3 years ago (couldn’t believe MY COUNTRY would elect that Clown again)
I’m fired up again with what Trump is showing us, how he just uses MSM and they don’t know what to do, how Cruz is just Natural and at ease Fighting the most powerful people in the World and Dr Carson with simple words and common sense can change a Generation and the way that they think with quiet Words.
Those 3 to me... Stand out!
Scott Walker (gone) is a Scrapper and in the UFC would be a Favorite on the Preliminary Card and on his way to getting a Belt (must have been an Injury for him to bow out).
Perry... (gone) I liked him, he was my Governor... and just because he was 1,000 times better than Obama wasn’t enough so he had to do the GOPe schuffle and be who he wasn’t, it was enough for me, he became a Politician... BYE!
Fiorina = Enjoyed being an MSM wedge... BYE!
Rubio = Lets go fishing, he is a great guy! So was Joe the Plumber and he probably has a nicer boat.
Never gave the rest of the wanna be’s much thought.
Linda is a paid Spoiler for Jeb
Jeb is Hillary with a Mexican accent
I like Bobby Jindal... as a Man, he is good people and he has done Louisiana well, he has a lot more work to do in THAT STATE, Public or Private, I’m not real big on Career Politicians, if he is as good as he thinks he is ... he can be whatever he wants to be.
The rest of them are staring up at the sky seeing mega $ ... Running for Office is just a Business (HEY CRISPY CREME, YOU BETTER HOPE YOUR SIDE WINS! CAUSE IF IT DON”T the IRS may want to speak with you)
I could be wrong (I was Once ... when I voted for Jimmy Carter, a mistake that I said I would never make again ... and I’m running out of bottles to piss in, hope that POS croaks soon so I know where and when to ship them)
IF! There is any Candidate that anyone knows of better than (in no order) “Trump”, “Cruz” or “Carson”
I don’t need to hear why one of the above is better or worse ... that is for a different thread ... If you know of someone better than the 3 that I have mentioned above, name them and tell me why.
Everyone else feel free to chip in, but I got here late so it’s probably just me and you.
TT
Forgot to mention ... Love your Tag!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.