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Posted on 09/19/2015 5:40:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
There are sixteen major candidates for the Republican nomination for president. All but three of them have been United States senators or state governors at some point in their careers. The other three, according to a Morning Consult poll of people who watched the 11 leading contenders debate this past Wednesday, are leading the race.
A couple of big caveats: this is Morning Consult's first campaign season and it isn't yet a proven pollster, and the people who watched the Republican debates may not represent the party's primary electorate as a whole. But when you consider that this is a poll of Republicans (and independents who plan to vote in Republican primaries) who are engaged enough to watch an early debate — who one would think are the most engaged voters out there — it gets even more worrisome for the establishment.
Here are four terrible signs for the GOP establishment in the poll, and one good one:
1) Political n00bs get an outright majority of debate-watchers' support
36 percent of poll respondents support Donald Trump; 12 percent support Ben Carson; and 10 percent support Carly Fiorina. All together, that's 58 percent of Republican debate-watchers who support one of the three candidates in the race with no experience in elected office whatsoever. To put it another way, none of the twelve candidates in the field with political experience managed to crack 10 percent of the vote.
2) Fiorina's rising — but she's not taking Trump's support
Most observers, including the poll's respondents, agreed Fiorina won the debate. Now, many pundits are portraying her as the new candidate with momentum — implying that she's seizing it from Trump.
But Trump not only failed to lose support after a debate where he was largely irrelevant to the proceedings, he actually gained 5 percentage points since the last Morning Connect poll was conducted a week ago. If neither Fiorina's rise nor his own debate performance has hurt Trump, it's getting hard to imagine what can.
3) Jeb Bush's numbers are dismal — and Scott Walker's are even worse
6 percent of poll respondents said they would vote for Jeb Bush. That ties him with Chris Christie for sixth place (behind Trump, Carson and Fiorina, as well as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). Just like Trump is somehow still gaining support, Bush is somehow still losing it.
It is definitely bad news for the Republican establishment that their preferred candidate is getting 6 percent in the polls. But the man who was supposed to be his "conservative challenger" is doing even worse. Scott Walker, who when the race started was the closest thing to the candidate of the conservative movement, is polling at 1 percent. He is tied with former New York Governor George Pataki.
4) The highest-polling elected official is Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz made his name, nationally, fighting the leadership of his own party in the Senate in the floor fight that resulted in the 2011 government shutdown. Ted Cruz is notoriously disliked by his Republican Senate colleagues. Ted Cruz's strategy over the last few months has been to buddy up with Donald Trump — even appearing at a rally in DC against the Iran nuclear deal together — in the hopes that when (or if) Trump's candidacy fades, Cruz will swoop in and take his support. Ted Cruz is, in other words, running against the fact that he is an elected official. Ted Cruz is polling better than all the other elected officials.
5) But what if all of this is just very good news for Marco Rubio?
If you are an establishment Republican donor, all of this looks pretty dismal to you. But there is hope! After yet another quietly competent debate performance, Marco Rubio — who was once languishing with Christie and Rand Paul — is rising in the polls and, according to Morning Connect, right behind Cruz.
Rubio is incredibly amenable to conservative establishment preferences. In fact, the biggest problem with his candidacy so far was that some of the people who might support Rubio were instead backing Jeb Bush. In a happy coincidence, just as Bush's campaign is looking hopeless — and just as it's becoming clear that the anti-establishment candidates aren't going to take each other out on their own — Rubio's looking a little better. In other words, Marco Rubio has a pretty strong case that if the GOP donor base wants to take down Donald Trump, he, and not Bush, is the candidate they should bet on.
Ben started a joke that got the whole world laughing.
Rubio is more likely to win a higher level of financial backing. Plus, Marcos temperment and demeanor appear calm and steady compared to the bombastic and unpredictable Trump.
Cruz would work as well, but he has too much in common with Trump to present a strong contrast.
A better debater than the North American champion in both categories who has a debate series at Princeton named after him?
++++
Cruz is the best debater by far. Unfortunately the format being followed isn’t exactly that of a classical debate. WWE is closer to the truth. We know the winner in advance and lots of verbal pushing and shoving.
Bottom line for Cruz: Take WWE Debate lessons. He’s a smart guy, the smartest. I expect him to follow that advice.
You do know that Cruz is leading the field in hard money donations and is #2 in soft money? Rubio isn’t even close. Why would that change all of a sudden?
I’ve never heard anyone say that about Marco R. What makes you see him as a race supremacist? Does he belong to La Raza?
Rubio is a steadfast amnesty promoter.
I didn’t say that - I said he is a good debater.
Agreed that these debates have not been very good formats, the sheer numbers alone distort the process considerably.
The world is a very dangerous place and can only become more dangerous by the time the next president (God willing, one of the people under discussion) is elected.
As one looks at this crowded field, the man who inspires the most confidence in these very challenging times is Ted Cruz. I think this will become easier to see (for primary voters) when the field is less crowded and they have more in-depth chances to assess each candidate.
There are several others who might pass this stern test. But I have to wonder, have they done any polling about second choices? because, it would be interesting to see how these candidates are doing as next-best choice.
November 2016 cannot come fast enough, one cannot imagine the mess that would follow another Democrat victory and surely the nation will see this (at least the middle ground swing voters) so getting this right is important.
The GOPe members no longer own their souls.
Absolutely NOT, Rubio is just like Bush, et all.
Yep, you’re right
Establishment Republicans have no souls to search or they wouldn’t have allowed our country and the Republican party to get in the shape it is in.
You’re right, most unfortunately. Whoever recommended that Cruz search out and speak to the appropriate camera oughta be shot. It’s almost as annoying (and cloying) as Obama’s head-swivels. Such a shame because Cruz is the right guy.
He has regularly addressed them since the start of his career.
how about Trump making Cruz Atty General and then when available putting him on the USSC?
“What would Trump get from Rubio that he wouldn’t get from Cruz?”
An oily weasel who puts his own ethnic politics first.
We live in and by the TV camera now so appearance sometimes out weighs substance. The camera wasnt friendly to Cruz.
Also note that Univision hates Rubio....they are constantly running hit pieces on him. Here in Florida Rubio isnt liked by the Tea Party types due to his initial stand with the gang of 8. He also lost a lot of old friends when he started hanging around with Graham and McCain.
He finally wised up and shortly after he backed out of the gang of 8 group they turned on him big time. Even so most conservative voters didnt forgive him.
The Bush crowd, small but effective, have been working against Rubio too. Even the state GOPe and their big money people.
Rubio, probably in ernst, tried to please too many sides and go along to get along......now look at his standings.
Carley should have held back for the long term. Her chances depended on her lasting long enough where there was no one else to consider and no time to examine her record. Cats out of the bag now, and she's a known disaster.
At 6% there’s no logical reason for the media to spend ink on jebtard! stories anymore. No more so than covering christie or hucky or the rest of the back of the pack losers.
I want Louie Gohmert for Atty General!!!
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