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Why Ted Cruz Is Such a Long Shot
The New York Times' The Upshot ^ | March 23, 2015 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 03/23/2015 10:06:17 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

In nearly every presidential primary, a few candidates attract a lot of news media attention even though they have almost no chance to win the nomination. Sometimes they even lead national polls or win states, but invariably their appeal is too narrow to allow them to build the broad coalition necessary to unite a diverse party.

Ted Cruz, the Texas senator and Tea Party favorite, who on Monday became the first major candidate to formally enter the race, has seemingly been on track for this role since he first ran for the Senate in 2012. He is the darling of conservatives in a conservative party. But he remains a long shot, at best.

The most interesting question about Mr. Cruz’s candidacy is whether he has a very small chance to win or no chance at all.

Political scientists argue that the single most important determinant of the outcome of the nomination is support from party elites: those operatives who can staff a winning campaign; the donors who fund it; the elected officials and interest group leaders who bestow the credibility necessary to persuade voters and affect media coverage....

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016; cruz; cruz2016; cruzannounces; cruzspeech; gop; libertyuniv; tedcruz
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The more the closet bigot Jebbies, Boehner and McConnel screw around in congress,the better for Cruz.

FU Boehner


61 posted on 03/23/2015 4:36:16 PM PDT by lavaroise (A well regulated gun being necessary to the state, the rights of the militia shall no)
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To: arthurus

“As non citizens they still have their drivers’ licenses and have been therewith registered to vote regardless of their Citizenship status, and they will vote, some several times.”

Not true in Texas and probably other states. Every person who wants to register to vote, gets checked by the Secretary of State, Elections Division, to prove that person is a citizen. If he/she is not a citizen, the name does not get on the voter list. I suspect other states also have a way to determine who is a citizen or not.

You also don’t know the process to keep a person from voting more than once in a county.

Elections just don’t happen willy nilly - there are checks in place (can you say election laws?) to prevent illegal voting. Look up your state’s Secretary of State website and click on the election law and find out how your state runs elections - the process to prevent illegal voting.


62 posted on 03/23/2015 7:55:17 PM PDT by Marcella (Prepping can save your life today. Going Galt is freedom.)
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To: Marcella

It is explicitly true in Illinois and California, at least, and in large cities in many other states. For example in Chicago illegals are allowed to vote on school issues if they have kids in school and the precinct workers tell them to go ahead and vote for the other elections that are on the same ballots because “no one can know.”


63 posted on 03/24/2015 2:22:36 AM PDT by arthurus (it's true!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
God loves "long shots". Even though dawn lies are irrelevant to Him.


64 posted on 03/24/2015 2:39:49 AM PDT by Theophilus (Be as prolific as you are pro-life.)
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To: arthurus; Jim Robinson
“For example in Chicago illegals are allowed to vote on school issues if they have kids in school and the precinct workers tell them to go ahead and vote for the other elections that are on the same ballots because “no one can know.””

I don't believe that and here's why:
School board elections with school issues are a separate election from a Federal election and they are on separate ballots. City elections are also held at a different time than Federal elections or school board elections and have separate ballots. Both school board and city elections are held in the spring and summer. Federal primary elections are in the spring and summer but are separate from school board and city elections - and all those entities are on separate ballots. A whole country Federal election is held in November and that ballot only has Federal candidates on it.

65 posted on 03/24/2015 8:41:28 AM PDT by Marcella (Prepping can save your life today. Going Galt is freedom.)
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