Polls Sample

[Massimo75]

Hi everybody! My name is Massimo and I am from Italy. I have one of the very few GOP Oriented political blog in Italy (which you can find here http://awhiteavenue.blogspot.it/), but being all in italian I doubt it can be an interesting reading for you whatsoever!

I'd like to share some thought on the polls sample. Recently some polls showed Obama ahead by 2-3 points (IBD/TIPP Tracking, Hartford Courant/UConn, ABC News/Wash Post), they keep Obama up in the RCP average but they all have a sample with way more democrats than they should. Dem +7 or Dem+9 would be comparable o even better (for Obama) than the turnout he had in 2008. Unlikely that's going to happen this year. I think it's reasonable to say those polls should be ignored.

I don't know the Gallup sample, can anybody help me with that?

Rasmussen's numbers looks the most reasonable to me, I am a platinum member since yesterday but I can't find the breakdown of sample for the national tracking (while I see it in the state polls), anyone knows where to look?

I keep in mind 2004 election CNN exit poll which showed GOP and Dems tie at 37. This election is way closer to 2004 than 2008. If the two parties showed similar numbers on election day it will all come down to indipendents, and Romney confortably leads among indipendents this year. Romney has a better hand than anybody would think just few weeks ago.

[Oldpuppymax]

Gallup and Rasmussen breakdowns should be on their respective sites, but it will be necessary to become a member of each for some price or other.

[paolop]

Ciao Massimo,

benvenuto al foro! La stampa in Italia e` cosi` di sinistra che devo veramente congratularmi con lei per il suo coraggio. Riguardo al sondaggio, come lei sa`, ci sono tante altre variabili da considerare che la maggior parte di loro valgono poco.

Paolo

[Panzerlied]

What Paolo just said goes for me too! :>)

[Massimo75]

Yeah, I know. I am a Rasmussen member since yesterday and I would gladly share the information with you if I just could find it!

I see for example that Ohio sample has Gop 37, Dems 37, Ind 26, while Florida has Gop 38, Dems 37, Ind 25. But can’t find the overall sample for the presidential tracking. If there’s any other Rasmussen member here maybe can help me.

And...any Gallup member to get into their sample as well?

[ScottfromNJ]

“They keep Obama up in the RCP average”

RCP for some reason has ignored polls showing Romney up, like UPI and PPP/KOS, yet any poll showing an Obama lead are included. I’m suspicious of them, don’t think their average is accurate.

[Massimo75]

Hi!I am not the only italian here after all! :D

Ciao! Non sono l’unico italiano! :D

Are You living in the US or posting from Italy like me?

[Viennacon]

Massimo, it’s good to hear someone is awake in Europe :D. Most others have been brainwashed by the commie left. Your analysis is astute. Romney’s lead among independents will be crucial this election.

ScottFromNJ has his facts about the average correct as well. They’re even using Zogby polls (lol), yet they don’t include those pesky, right wing polls.

Best wishes for the hard times ahead in Italy. Hope you do okay.

Ciao

[Robert DeLong]

His profile sya: Former simultaneous interpreter and translator for various Federal agencies. First job at Bell Labs doing research (1975...). I run a small online company.

And he is flying the State flag of Connecticut.

[paolop]

Ciao,

No, sono in America, nel Connecticut.

9Hi,

No, I am in the US, in Connecticut.)

[Massimo75]

Thanks! I am okay, I am an engineer I run my business (and me and my family did build it!) and in spite of all the attemps from our non elected government to kill the private sector jobs, we’re still doing fine so far.

Anyway, I posted the following in another thread but it’s maybe too busy for people to notice it :)

I elaborated a simple model which redistributes - bed word, I know, but forgive me! :) - the national figures of each candidate to the single states under the assumption that states keep on having the same behavior in terms of voting for the Gop or the Dem candidate above or below the national average.
My model has 2 options:
1 - keeping the same vote distribution of 2008 election
2 - keeping the average vote distribution of 2000-2004-2008 elections.

I would like to post a screencap of the excel sheet but I am new here and I can’t see how to post images.

The model worked quite well in 2008 election in mostly of the states, some are changing their behavior compared with national average more quickly because of demographic changes (like Colorado or Nevada) and that makes them harder to predict with this particular method.

Anyway, for what it’s worth, according to this model of mine Romeny +4 (50-46, as Rasmussen says today) in the 11 swing states means a 2.5-3 points lead in the national vote and Romney winner in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado (with Iowa and New Hampshire too cose to call).

That would be enough to have 275 Electoral Votes and the White House.

State polls I see seems quite consistent with common sense (and my model as well). The one I don’t get is Ohio, how on earth a GOP candidate can be up in the national vote (Rasmussen is +1 or +2, sometimes Tie, depending on the day) and still be down by 1 in Ohio? Margin of error or Car bailout effect?

[nodumbblonde]

Sadly, Massimo, you seem to pay more attention to our politics than most Americans do!

In the spirit of fair trade, we would be happy to trade you and your family for some dead weight we’re carrying over here. :-D

[Viennacon]

That will be union power in Ohio that’s keeping Obama afloat. We’re hoping for a backup retreat in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania however, because the NRA are now fully behind us and informing those big gun states of Obama’s agenda to take away firearms from the American people. Polls show us doing well in both, either 1 behind, or a couple ahead.

Posting images here is a pain. What you need to do is print-screen the excel sheet, upload it to Photobucket and then to post it here, you need to follow this guide

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2883902/posts

It looks like the Greeks are ready to throw out there government for their crimes. I hope you too can see freedom in Italy from government control, especially from the totalitarian EUSSR. Becoming a puppet state of Brussels should not be the future for Italians.

[Massimo75]

Well, three of my biggest passions are politics, America and numbers.
I can combine the three of them here! :)

Anyway I made a mistake, my model had Missouri in (it was designed in 2008 when Missouri actually was a swing state) instead of Michigan. It changes quite a lot cause the first is a red state while the second is blue state.

Now I fixed it to have the exact same swing states Rasmussen included in his swing states tracking and so a 4 points lead in these 11 states combined would mean a 3.5 points lead nationally with Iowa and New Hampshire which would too go under the belt.

I mean this 4 points lead in the swing states tracking paints quite a more favorable picture than the single point lead in the national tracking.
Again, I can’t see how this can go together with such a tight race in Ohio.

[Massimo75]

I think winning Pennsylvania could be possible only with a 3-4 points advantage nationally. Which doesn’t fit with most of the national polls (except Gallup) but could be the case if the 50-46 in the Rasmussen swing states tracking poll would be accurate. In that case anyway I think the election would be pretty straightforward.
I mean if Romney wins a blue state like PA he’s going to have a landslide.

Here in Italy I think politically we’re beyond help. Our center-right caolition vanished and we don’t even know who we could vote for in each camp in next year election.
But I can tell You one thing: the path you’re on, the government spending, the government running economy more and more, the debt over 100% of the GDP is very same path that brought us where we’re now. I can tell you it doesn’t work, jobs and economy dependent on government money are affordable only in the short-medium term.

I remember Margaret Thatchet once said: The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.

[Massimo75]

I found a way to post the document on google docs.
So here it is
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2JIAz5DeQPtUUdDRlpMMG90OFU/edit

Quick explaination:
Sheet from 1 to 5 are just data acquisition. For each of the 11 states the excel sheet acquires a coefficient for every election for both parties.
For example in 2008 McCain in Florida had 48.22% while his national result was 45.70. So his result in Florida was 1.06 times “bigger” than his national figure, so 1.06 it’s the Gop coefficient in Florida 2008-—> KGop2008-Florida = 1.06.
You procede like this for each state for every election till you have a best coefficient and a worst coefficient for each state based on all the elections taken into account.
I created the model for the 2008 election and then I had 1996-2000 and 2004 elections in it. This year I dropped 1996 and put in 2008, cause behaviors of the states compared with the national average change overtime (slowly for some states, more quickly for others whit bigger demography changes) and I thought that 1996 data was not that significance anymore.

The goal is to have a model which tranforms the national result of each candidate in likely ranges (or averages) in each of the 11 swing states. So it doesn’t predict the national result, but once You input that in the model, transform it in results in the 11 states.
Of course this is not an exact method cause distributions are never exactly the same twice, but most of the time they change slowly enough to have a resemblance with their past :)

Results are in sheets 6 and 7.
Sheet 6 gives you ranges and average for each state based on 2000-2004-2008 distribution of vote.
Sheet 7 gives the result only based on the 2008 distribution.

The only input data, which can be changed every time one wants to, are the national result of each candidate in 2012 which are at the top of sheet 6 and 7.
In this case I have put Romney 50% and Obama 46.50 cause I was trying to determine what situation would have led the model close to a the swing states Resmussen scenario.

The 50-46 in the 11 swing states paints clearly a much more favorable picture for Romney than the 1 point lead in the presidential national tracking poll. Truth could be somewhere in between.

[Viennacon]

And Thatcher was right. We on FreeRepublic are fully aware that Obama intends to take us down the same route as the socialist leaders in Europe, a path of debt and decline. We’re going to go all out this election to prevent that, because we know that after Obama gets the welfare state up and running.... then the Muslims begin to pour in. We’ve seen it inflicted upon Europe in the most terrifying away, Swedish women raped, Danish cartoonists stabbed. We won’t let that happen to America without a fight.

I have heard about the ‘Northern League’ in Italy, who were part of Berlusconi’s right wing coalition, the most conservative of its members. Are they a viable political force, or just a fringe separatist movement? It would be good if Italy had a freedom party like the Netherlands, who would put Italians first, and make the tough decisions.

[nodumbblonde]

It says I need permission to view the document so I’ve sent you an access request. :-)

(It should come via Google.)

[Massimo75]

Sorry. My bad for haven’t fixed the settings.
Now it’s public :)

[Safetgiver]

That will be union power in Ohio that’s keeping Obama afloat....Uhhh, all those UMW’s will NOT be voting for Obama this time around. Those hard working- family- mining-for generations people do NOT like the war on coal. They do not want to work as greeters at Wally World. Wait and See. UMW may SAY they will deliver the vote but I don’t think so.