Thanks! I am okay, I am an engineer I run my business (and me and my family did build it!) and in spite of all the attemps from our non elected government to kill the private sector jobs, we’re still doing fine so far.
Anyway, I posted the following in another thread but it’s maybe too busy for people to notice it :)
I elaborated a simple model which redistributes - bed word, I know, but forgive me! :) - the national figures of each candidate to the single states under the assumption that states keep on having the same behavior in terms of voting for the Gop or the Dem candidate above or below the national average.
My model has 2 options:
1 - keeping the same vote distribution of 2008 election
2 - keeping the average vote distribution of 2000-2004-2008 elections.
I would like to post a screencap of the excel sheet but I am new here and I can’t see how to post images.
The model worked quite well in 2008 election in mostly of the states, some are changing their behavior compared with national average more quickly because of demographic changes (like Colorado or Nevada) and that makes them harder to predict with this particular method.
Anyway, for what it’s worth, according to this model of mine Romeny +4 (50-46, as Rasmussen says today) in the 11 swing states means a 2.5-3 points lead in the national vote and Romney winner in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado (with Iowa and New Hampshire too cose to call).
That would be enough to have 275 Electoral Votes and the White House.
State polls I see seems quite consistent with common sense (and my model as well). The one I don’t get is Ohio, how on earth a GOP candidate can be up in the national vote (Rasmussen is +1 or +2, sometimes Tie, depending on the day) and still be down by 1 in Ohio? Margin of error or Car bailout effect?
Sadly, Massimo, you seem to pay more attention to our politics than most Americans do!
In the spirit of fair trade, we would be happy to trade you and your family for some dead weight we’re carrying over here. :-D
That will be union power in Ohio that’s keeping Obama afloat. We’re hoping for a backup retreat in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania however, because the NRA are now fully behind us and informing those big gun states of Obama’s agenda to take away firearms from the American people. Polls show us doing well in both, either 1 behind, or a couple ahead.
Posting images here is a pain. What you need to do is print-screen the excel sheet, upload it to Photobucket and then to post it here, you need to follow this guide
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2883902/posts
It looks like the Greeks are ready to throw out there government for their crimes. I hope you too can see freedom in Italy from government control, especially from the totalitarian EUSSR. Becoming a puppet state of Brussels should not be the future for Italians.