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Posted on 08/21/2012 2:38:08 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
PPP's first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP's last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.
The biggest change Ryan's selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney's gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There's also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that's down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll.
Ryan isn't exactly a universally popular figure in his home state. 49% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. But that does give him the best numbers of anybody on either ticket in the state. Obama has a 46% approval rating with 50% of voters disapproving of him, Romney has a 45/48 favorability rating, and Joe Biden stands at 41/48.
A big reason Wisconsin remains so competitive for the GOP is that the electorate looks like it will be considerably more Republican leaning than it was in 2008, reflecting the continued high energy level of the party's voters after its victory in June's recall election. We find an electorate that's 34% Republican and 32% Democratic. Exit polls in 2008 showed Democrats with a 6 point turnout advantage, 39% to 33%. Although the enthusiasm gap that plagued Democrats nationally in 2010 has dissipated some places, it appears to still be a real issue for them in Wisconsin.
Choosing Ryan as his running mate isn't giving Romney any trouble with seniors in Wisconsin. That's actually where his greatest strength is, leading Obama 52-43 with them. Which isn't to say the Ryan Plan is popular in Wisconsin- only 40% of voters support it to 46% who are opposed. But the concern with it is coming much more from young voters than seniors.
“Wisconsin really is starting to look like a toss up in the Presidential race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question is whether this is just a bounce from Paul Ryan’s selection as running mate, or if the increased Republican competitiveness will prove to be lasting.”
PPP surveyed 1,308 likely Wisconsin voters from August 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance? Approve .......................................................... 46% Disapprove...................................................... 50% Not sure .......................................................... 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Favorable........................................................ 45% Unfavorable .................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 7%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? Barack Obama................................................ 47% Mitt Romney.................................................... 48% Undecided....................................................... 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden? Favorable........................................................ 41% Unfavorable .................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Paul Ryan? Favorable........................................................ 49% Unfavorable .................................................... 45% Not sure .......................................................... 6%
Q6 If you were allowed to vote directly for Vice President, would you choose Democrat Joe Biden or Republican Paul Ryan? Joe Biden........................................................ 44% Paul Ryan ....................................................... 51% Not sure .......................................................... 5%
Q7 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan's proposal for reforming Medicare? Support ........................................................... 40% Oppose ........................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008? John McCain................................................... 43% Barack Obama................................................ 51% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 6%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? Very liberal ...................................................... 10% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 20% Moderate......................................................... 29% Somewhat conservative.................................. 24% Very conservative ........................................... 16%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman ........................................................... 52% Man................................................................. 48%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Democrat ........................................................ 32% Republican...................................................... 34% Independent/Other.......................................... 34%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. White .............................................................. 92% Other............................................................... 8%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 12% 30 to 45........................................................... 22% 46 to 65........................................................... 46% Older than 65.................................................. 20%
I bet 0bama takes Madison. LOL!
A poll is just out showing Romney up in Michigan.
Who knows if it is legit. But for this moment in time, Romney is taking from obama. And obama is losing ground to Romney.
It could continue this way...and obama could well lose.
So much for that after Akin opened his big mouth.
Wasn’t Romney up in another poll in Florida? If R/R take the rust belt, they won’t need Virginia.
I’m not saying it isn’t true because I think Mitt probably did get a bounce from Paul Ryan. But we should be very careful with PPP considering how they like to play games with their samples.
In fact, I wouldn’t put it past any non-Rasmussen pollster to adjust their samples right now so they can minimize any convention bounce that might actually happen a week from now.
We’ll get a better idea here in WI tomorrow as there is a Marquette poll coming out which usually has very informative crosstabs.
Do I see a trend? I fervently hope so.
And this poll is weighted 52-48 women to men.
It’s now Obama v Akin ... guess who wins? All the rest is a waste of time and money. Akin should rot in hell
I hope Obama runs against Akin. In the meantime, Romney/Ryan can continue to address important issues while increasing his margin.
i think you are correct on both points
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