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Louisiana shows Rick’s hopelessness
The Charleston Daily Mail ^ | March 24, 2012 | Don Surber

Posted on 03/24/2012 12:48:12 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Republicans hold their presidential primary in Louisiana today. Rick Santorum leads all the polls by double digits. If as expected, he wins, Santorum will need to win 39 of the 46 delegate races — 85% — just to offset Mitt Romney’s 42-10 shellacking of Rick in the delegate count in Tuesday’s primary in Illinois.

If through some miracle Rick Santorum took all 46 delegates in this proportional primary — an improbability — he would still not break even in the delegate race because Romney picked up 20 delegates in Sunday’s winner-take-all primary in Puerto Rico.

And even if he breaks even from now through the convention, Rick Santorum loses in Tampa 1,200-900 as Mitt crosses the 1,144 delegate threshold to cinch the nomination sometime in May.


TOPICS: Louisiana; Campaign News; Parties
KEYWORDS: louisiana; romney; santorum
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Comments?
1 posted on 03/24/2012 12:48:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Comments?

A brokered convention or 4 more years of 0bama.

2 posted on 03/24/2012 12:56:49 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why bother commenting when you’re just going to ignore the facts anyway.

Newt is taking away 0 delegates from Romney and keeping Rick’s vote totals under 50%, allowing Romney to pick up more delegates than he would otherwise in a two man race. This has been mathematically proven ad nauseum, but you Newt supporters refuse to look at the math.

If this were a two-man race, the month of May looks very bad for Romney. That month IN, NC, AR, KY, WV, and OR all vote. With the exception of maybe OR, all the other states on that list would be favorable for Santorum to win 50%+ in a two-man race. That would give him at least some momentum going into the June 5 primaries in CA and NJ with the chance to stop Romney short of 1,144 delegates.

However, with Newt in the race, Rick can’t pick enough delegates up and because he is under 50%, Romney will grab more delegates in Southern states than he normally would (AL/MS/OK - SEE AS EXAMPLES).

Example: AR coming up in May, Rick would easily take a 35-1 split of the delegates, with Romney’s sole delegate awarded for getting over 15%. However, with Newt in, Romney will probably grab as many as 6-7 delegates since no one will get to 50%.

Newt is a stalking horse. The math prooves it. Does Rick have to win a boatload of the remaining delegates? Yes? Is it possible? Unlikely, but based on the May Calendar still doable. Is it possible to do this with Newt in the race? Absolutely not.


3 posted on 03/24/2012 1:03:21 PM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: parksstp

So we get a Catholic Theocratic statist (Ricky) instead of a Mormon Theocratic statist? Neine, danke!


4 posted on 03/24/2012 1:06:52 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: parksstp

Santorum should drop out and let a real fiscal conservative pick up the conservative votes. Santorum may be a social conservative, but anybody who supports big unions like Santorum does is no fiscal conservative. At this point in time we need a fiscal conservative like Newt, not a one issue social conservative like Rick.


5 posted on 03/24/2012 1:12:02 PM PDT by John D
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And just like that, you’ve prooven why nobody (majority of voters) takes Newt or his supporters seriously. Snarky comments like “Catholic Theocratic statist” is over the top and shows your misintrepretation of Rick’s adherence to social issues. It also reeks of sour-grapes syndrome and whining that you’re guy failed the test and was unable to rebound when it mattered. And yet it’s you people who accuse Santorum of whining?


6 posted on 03/24/2012 1:14:04 PM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: John D
At this point in time we need a fiscal conservative like Newt, not a one issue social conservative like Rick.

Yeah, Newt's continued support of ethanol subsidies, incentives for green vehicles, and whole new federal agencies are just what America needs. LOL
7 posted on 03/24/2012 1:16:08 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; parksstp

Rick has the full support of The Moral Majority.


8 posted on 03/24/2012 1:20:22 PM PDT by ngat
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To: John D

Tell that to the American Conservative Union and Mark Levin, who give Rick solid OVERALL Conservative ratings.

If anyone is about big-government solutions, it’s Newt Gingrich. He says 300 pages of Obamacare are “good ideas”. Not only that, Newt’s concerned about your consumption on oil, where he thinks it’s his job to figure out how to get you to use less oil.

And then there was that thing about Newt saying the Era of Reagan is Over, for which Rush Limbaugh called him out on it as well as his other non-conservative policies

http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/newt-gingrich-in-2008-the-era-of-reagan-is-overwhy-newt-is-wrong-for-america/


9 posted on 03/24/2012 1:21:10 PM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: ngat

Yes, Rick is a strong one issue social conservative, but at this point in time we need a strong fiscal conservative. Not a strong big union supporting liberal like Santorum.


10 posted on 03/24/2012 1:23:49 PM PDT by John D
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To: John D

Newt is too far behind to even have Santorum drop out. Newt has won 2 states for goodness sake and has not been able to pick up many additional delegates due to his numerous 4th place finishes. If it was the other way around and Newt had as many delegates as Santorum, I would be saying that Santorum should get out, but since nobody is voting for Newt, it is time for “the fat lady to sing”.


11 posted on 03/24/2012 1:24:56 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
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To: parksstp

Newt was not my first choice either, but I definitely do not a big union supporter like Santorum. We already have a big union man in the White House. We do not need another.


12 posted on 03/24/2012 1:27:02 PM PDT by John D
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To: napscoordinator
Do you really think the pro-union candidate would get more than half of Newt's support? Newt staying in helps keep Romney from getting all he needs before the convention.
I do not want a pro-union candidate under any conditions.
13 posted on 03/24/2012 1:31:08 PM PDT by John D
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To: parksstp
The Library of Congress offers some clues why Rick Santorum is losing this primary race to a lying, sleazy, crony communist puke like Mitt Romney.

Religion and the Founding of the American Republic

Like any other sort of wannabee tyrant given an inch, religious tyrants will take a mile, and will then push on to destruction.


14 posted on 03/24/2012 1:37:29 PM PDT by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: cripplecreek
"Yeah, Newt's continued support of ethanol subsidies, incentives for green vehicles, and whole new federal agencies are just what America needs. LOL"

Behold the words of Rick Santorum:

"What we need is a government mandate! We need to mandate that all cars sold in the United States, starting with the 2010 model year, be 'flex-fuel vehicles' - that is, they should be able to run on a blend that is 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline (the so-called E85 blend), or even a coal-derived methanol/gas mixture. This mandate would cost a fraction of the new fuel economy standard with the added benefit of saving barrels more oil."

Reducing U.S. oil appetite This is one cause that could be helped by smart mandates and taxing, op-ed by Rick Santorum, Philadelphia Enquirer, January 31, 2008

That's what I love about Santorum supporters. They never bother to research their candidate of choice, and they always end up looking ignorant. Can you say "hubris?" I know you can...

15 posted on 03/24/2012 1:41:56 PM PDT by Josh Painter ("We intend to change Washington, not accomodate it." - Newt Gingrich)
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To: Josh Painter
Why should anyone research Santorum’s record? He has a halo, isn't that enough? Good grief, you act like the future of our country is on the line or something. /s
16 posted on 03/24/2012 1:44:45 PM PDT by LuvFreeRepublic ( (#withNewt))
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To: John D
Santorum should drop out

Enough of the stupidity. If that happens, THE RACE IS OVER AND ROMNEY COASTS TO THE NOMINATION. There won't even be a chance of a brokered convention.

But, maybe that is what you want.

17 posted on 03/24/2012 1:45:19 PM PDT by Kazan (Mitt Romney: The greater of two evils)
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To: cripplecreek
Yeah, Newt's continued support of ethanol subsidies, incentives for green vehicles, and whole new federal agencies are just what America needs. LOL

Is that any worse than Santorums refusal to cut the waste going to the NEA? In fact he voted to increase spending. Or his vote to take revenue from gas taxes to subsidize Amtrak?
At least Newt is not going to vote against a person's right to work.
18 posted on 03/24/2012 1:45:19 PM PDT by John D
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To: John D

Yes.

Because EVERY Primary/Caucus Result shows that Santorum’s supporters and Newt’s supporters are essentially made up of the same categories (Males, Ages 25-50, Income Less than 100K, Tea Party Supporters, Conservative, Rule, Evangelical/Religious). The Difference is Rick gets more in each categorical demographic than Newt and FAR more women and Evangelical voters.

Compare this to Romney’s base (Women, Seniors, Hispanics, Income Earners greater than 100K, Oppose Tea Party, Moderate/Liberal Republicans, Think he looks the part, urban/subrban voters).

See any correalation between the two demographics? There isn’t and EVERY Primary/Caucus map shows the same thing. Romney gets his 30% wherever and Newt cuts into Santorum’s margins by taking voters. Newt staying in does NOTHING to prevent Romney from getting delegates and in fact, HELPS Romney to get delegates he wouldn’t otherwise have.

Also, one other thing voters have about Rick more than Newt. They TRUST and LIKE Rick more than Newt. This is why when Rick opposed RTW in PA, the voters, understanding the Demograpical make-up of PA, don’t hold it against him and BELIEVE him when he says he will push Federal RTW legislation.

But what are facts to you when you have an agenda to push?


19 posted on 03/24/2012 1:49:02 PM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: Josh Painter
That's what I love about Santorum supporters. They never bother to research their candidate of choice

Nonsense. Rick, Newt, Cain, Perry, etc. were all flawed candidates. But, all are conservative and better choices than Romney, who is unacceptable as the nominee.

All you're doing is helping Romney with this sort of whining because Santorum is the only candidate left with the support to even get us to brokered.

So, either you just don't get it or you'd prefer Romney. Either way, it is frustrating to watch Romney take advantage of this sort of stupidity.

20 posted on 03/24/2012 1:49:38 PM PDT by Kazan (Mitt Romney: The greater of two evils)
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