Posted on 01/08/2010 6:56:31 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Recently the National Journal queried “political insiders” as to whom they thought would win the GOP nomination in 2012. Among them Mitt Romney was the overwhelming favorite (reported here and with additional info here.) A smaller poll was also done with not “insiders” but political bloggers with similar results.
Rank the top 5 candidates, 1 through 5, in terms of who you think is most likely to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
Results:
(CHART AT LINK)
I transposed the methodology from the insiders poll to match this poll: *METHODOLOGY: 18 right-leaning bloggers participated. In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote 4 points, and so on. The Insiders Index reflects the percentage of points that each contender received out of the maximum possible. For example, Mitt Romney scored an Index rating of 66, meaning he received 66 percent of the possible 90 points, the number he would have had if all 18 participants had ranked him first.
List of the right leaning bloggers: Dan McLaughlin, Baseball Crank; Bob Parks, Black And Right; Bookworm, Bookworm Room; D.S. Hube, The Colossus Of Rhodey; Bruce Carroll Jr., GayPatriot; Skip Murphy, GraniteGrok; Robert Miller, JoshuaPundit; Soren Dayton, The Next Right; Jon Henke, The Next Right; James Joyner, Outside The Beltway; Walter Olson, Overlawyered; Steven Taylor, PoliBlog; Debbie Hamilton, Right Truth; John Hawkins, Right Wing News; David Gerstman, Soccer Dad; Martin Solomon, Solomonia; David Kopel, The Volokh Conspiracy; Susan Duclos, Wake Up America
A group of left wing Democrats participated in a small survey as well:
Who would be the Republicans’ strongest presidential nominee in 2012?
(CHART AT LINK)
Discussion: I personally don’t care whether people place a lot of stock in these “insiders” and bloggers’ opinions, its mostly human interest and I’m glad to see Romney well in any case. I’m interested in what people make of the disparity amongst the groups in relation to Sarah Palin. Why does she do well with the right-leaning bloggers, but doesn’t register with the left-leaning bloggers nor any of the “political insiders”? I don’t mean that as a knock on Palin at all, nor is it an invitation for a bash fest. It’s just an honest question hoping for some civil and thoughtful replies.
Note: The images above only show the top 5 from each category though there were many more names included. Click here for the full results.
useless poll....for a useless pol
These people must be out of their minds.
The list of so-called “Right Leaning Bloggers” includes someone who calls himself “Gay Patriot.” What is the sample’s definition of “right leaning?”
The Left-wing bloggers:
Sean-Paul Kelley, The Agonist
Dean Barker, Blue Hampshire
Kari Chisholm, Blue Oregon
John Amato, Crooks And Liars
Greg Dworkin, Daily Kos
Howie Klein, Down With Tyranny!
Gregg Levine, Firedoglake
Robert Farley, Lawyers, Guns And Money
Barbara O’Brien, The Mahablog
Taylor Marsh
Ellen Brodsky, News Hounds
Chris Bowers, Open Left
Tracy Viselli, Reno And Its Discontents
Lee Papa, The Rude Pundit
Matt L. Barron, RuralVotes
Susie Madrak, Suburban Guerrilla
To be fair, he did get the GayPatriot blog on his side. Must be the hair.
Breakdown of the Right leaning Bloggers poll
Romney 66
Palin 52
Pawlenty 33
Newt 23
Huckabee 13
Interestingly, Huckabee fares poorly in the GOP insider poll and the Right Leaning Blogger poll.
Yet Public Policy Polling (a Dem Pollster) has Huckabee as the strongest GOP candidate against Obama in 2012.
So let me get this straight. Palin rates one point less than Clinton, but she’s last on this list.
Does this make sense to anyone?
I’m thinking if this poll had been done in 1994 it would have included David Brooks, Andrew Sullivan, Little Green Footballs, David Gergen, Brian Williams, Douglas Kmiec...
Oh wait, people have HEARD of those guys.
What, no Megan McCain? Is it that we’d recognize her as a liberal? Wait, “The Gay Patriot?” Maybe not.
“Romney Also Wins the Right-Leaning Bloggers Poll”
Emergency Fix Crew!
Romney Also Wins the RINO-Leaning Bloggers Poll
Tell me the result you want and I’ll find the sampling to get it - that’s what polling has become.
Snort. So true.
Yup. Have you ever heard of ANY of those blogs?
Excellent point. Polling conducted by Mormon Buchanan.
Who, and where, are these people? They are certainly NOT FReepers. Seriously, what sites do they go to? Or do they just read the paper — and miss everything that’s going on?
The statist wing of the GOP.
I call BS on this poll
Even if the poll is on the up-and-up, it still represents a lemming-like mass suicidal impulse among Republicans—why? because there are huge areas of the South and even the Mid-West where a Mormon presidential candidate is a non-starter. If those people stay home and don’t vote, the Dems will peel off several states, in a situation where the loss of a few states cannot be tolerated.
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