Posted on 11/07/2002 6:48:22 AM PST by xsysmgr
Today a team of Republican election experts is in South Dakota, looking into the circumstances of Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson's extraordinarily narrow, last-minute victory over Republican candidate John Thune.
While it is certainly possible that there were no significant irregularities involved in the voting, some Republicans are puzzled by the way the vote-counting unfolded. Early Wednesday morning, with 99.65 percent of South Dakota's precincts reporting, Thune held a narrow lead over Johnson. It was only when the last three precincts (out of a total of 844) were counted that Johnson finally edged ahead. What has made some Republicans suspicious is that those final precincts were located in a southwestern county that was in the news for allegations of voting fraud in the weeks leading up to the election.
MINUTE BY MINUTE
For most of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, the election returns looked promising for Thune. At 1:32 A.M. EST on Wednesday, an Associated Press report showed Thune had 134,904 votes to Johnson's 132,648 with 648, or 77 percent, of the state's precincts reporting.At 2.47 A.M., the AP issued another report, this one showing Thune with 153,952 votes to Johnson's 149,789, with 736, or 87 percent, of precincts reporting — a lead of more than 4,000 votes.
At 3:41 A.M., Thune was up 158,331 to 154,602, with 776, or 92 percent, of precincts reporting.
At some point after that, Thune's lead began to shrink. By 6:38 A.M., with 838, or 99.3 percent, of the state's 844 precincts reporting, Thune led Johnson by 166,588 to 165,639 votes. It was close, but Thune was still in the lead by nearly 1,000 votes with just six precincts left to count.
Then the lead narrowed dramatically. By 8:28 A.M., Thune had 166,747 votes to Johnson's 166,559, with 841, or 99.65 percent, of the 844 precincts reporting. Thune was up by just 188 votes with three precincts left to count.
Those last precincts killed Thune's chances to win. At 9:21 A.M., with 843 of 844 precincts reporting, Thune trailed Johnson, 166,707 to 167,252.
Finally, at 10:22 A.M., the last precinct was counted and reported. Thune trailed Johnson 166,954 to 167,481 — a margin of 527 votes. Johnson claimed victory.
It was a stunning finish to a race that was clearly tight but appeared for much of the night to be in Thune's hands. Somewhere in the last five precincts, Thune's Senate hopes disappeared.
QUESTIONABLE PRACTICES
The vote counting has attracted the attention of Republicans because the precincts that defeated Thune — the ones that were counted last — were in Shannon County, on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. The county has been the target of intensive get-out-the-vote efforts by Democrats and has reported the largest gain in registrations, 17 percent, of any county in the state. In recent weeks, federal and local authorities have been investigating allegations of fraudulent voting practices related to some of those new voters (along with some in other counties around the state).In mid-October, the Shannon County auditor said one in ten of the county's new registrations was under investigation for possible irregularities. On October 20, the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reported that, "Auditors in 10 counties, all but one adjoining a reservation, have forwarded questionable registration forms or absentee ballot requests to the sheriff or state's attorney for investigation. Of the nearly 400 questionable documents discovered by the auditors, 338 came from Shannon and Pennington counties, where the two investigations into possible voter fraud are under way."
Shannon County went heavily for Johnson — out of 3,118 votes cast, 2,856, or about 92 percent, went to Johnson, while 248 went to Thune (a third-party candidate received 14 votes). That percentage, in itself, might not be particularly unusual; Native Americans in South Dakota vote heavily Democratic, and Johnson is popular with Native Americans. But one thing that has aroused Republican curiosity is the significant increase in the number of votes cast in Shannon County since the last mid-term election, in 1998, in which Sen. Tom Daschle won reelection.
In 1998, there were just 1,559 votes cast in Shannon (that is precisely half the votes cast this year — a statistical nicety that might signify nothing, but might still catch Republican eyes). Of the 1998 total, 1,228 went to Daschle and 239 went to Republican Ron Schmidt (a third-party candidate won 92 votes).
What some Republicans find interesting about the numbers is that the popular Daschle, who won in a landslide statewide, won just 79 percent of the votes in Shannon County — significantly less than Johnson won this year — while Schmidt, who lost by a huge margin in 1998, received about the same number of votes that the well-known Thune received this year. Even though the total number of voters in Shannon County has gone up dramatically, it appears that virtually none of them chose Thune.
The situation might be completely attributable to get-out-the-vote efforts; 17,000 new voters were signed up statewide in recent months, and Democrats were particularly aggressive in Shannon County and on the state's other Indian reservations. But Republicans signed up new voters, too, and now they want to have a look at the county's voting patterns.
Finally, the GOP wants to know more about the timing of the Shannon County returns. Although nothing is set in stone, some observers say it is not usually the pattern in statewide elections for Shannon County returns to be the last counted. Given the fact that the county provided Johnson's winning margin, and given the earlier allegations of corruption, Republicans want to know why Shannon was so late this time.
WHAT TO DO?
At this moment, the South Dakota secretary of state's office is finishing its official canvass of the election. That process in effect rechecks everyone's math and comes up with a final vote total for all the races. It is not designed to uncover voter irregularities.According to state law, Thune is entitled to ask for a recount. On Wednesday, he released a carefully worded statement that suggested he might choose to do so. "If there is a change in the numbers or evidence of irregularities after the official election canvass, I will look at pursuing the next step in the process, which is a formal recount," Thune said:
However, I do not wish to put the people of South Dakota through this process unless it is absolutely necessary. Therefore, if there is no change in the vote totals or any irregularities after the official canvass, we will pursue no further action and the results will stand...No one would be happier than I to see those numbers change as the process continues. However, if the numbers stand, I am prepared to accept the outcome and know that my supporters and all those who have stood with me during this process will accept the outcome as well.
Speaking publicly later on Wednesday, Thune seemed inclined to let the matter drop after the canvass. At this point, it is simply not clear whether he will ask for a recount or take any other action.
Republicans want to be careful in the course they choose. They have already won the Senate, and they do not want to embroil the party in a long, acrimonious fight over a contest that will not affect the balance of power in Washington. In addition, they do not want to embark on a Democratic-style legal battle if there is no solid evidence of fraud. But at this point, they want to know what happened. The circumstances of Johnson's last-minute comeback look a little odd, and Republicans want to learn the story behind the numbers.
Byron York is wrong. Going from 51 to 52 in the Senate is worth fighting for - especially if it can root out vote fraud. Failure to aggressively fight vote fraud just gives the Dems an edge. In 2004 we want to increase Republican seats in the Senate to 55+. Ideally we want > 60 Senate seats Republican. This is very possible, and will make the Senate filibuster-proof.
From Findlaw's site on SD recount statutes:
12-21-12. Candidate's petition for recount in close state or district election -- Notice to county auditors. If any candidate for an office, position, or nomination other than the Legislature is voted upon in more than one county, and has been defeated according to the official returns by a margin which does not exceed one-fourth of one percent of the total vote cast for all candidates for such office, position, or nomination, the candidate may within three days after completion of the official canvass by the State Board of Canvassers file a petition with the secretary of state setting forth that the candidate believes a recount will change the result and that all of the votes cast for the office, position, or nomination should be recounted. The secretary of state shall, by registered or certified mail, notify each county auditor that has precincts included in the petition. Each county auditor shall then conduct a recount.The entire section can be found HERE
I'm old enough to remember how the presidential election of '60 was stolen from Nixon (dead voting in Chicago, union thugs in PA, etc.).
Why the GOP has never made more an issue of I've never understood.
Well put and more than likely quite accurate. Here is a tidbit of information little known. Some months ago an organization, name escapes but I could find out as it was in the press, from Washington, D.C. (private think tank or something like that) gave $200,000.00 to the President of the United Sioux Tribes to be used as "walking cash".
Do the arithmetic for registered voters on the res'. Remember the cigarette purchases in Milwaukee in the last Presidential election. Will this money was likewise used and in fact the lady who has been under investigation ... rebBird ... or something like that was hired by the State Dem's through the United Sioux tribes (I believe).
Anyway, I have been reading all the various threads on the matter and unfortunately the bottom line is only if law enforcement can turn up massive voter registration and/or voter fraud, John will have no choice but to concede. If the canvasing doesn't produce any remarkable irregularities or if there isn't a bunch of substancial evidence of massive fraud, he will not turn SD into a Floriduh. Ultimately courts are not going to take away citizens votes unless it is really proved substantially. And how does one do that and in what time frame.
I have also read the threads on the "blame game" stuff and they are likewise a waste of time. The fact is that South Dakota as well as North Dakota and other uppermidwestern farm states where agriculture is the main industry in the rural states, enjoys very strange politics. The people that farm and market to the farmers/ranchers are, in most cases quite conservative and traditionally valued, however farm country ecconomy's are so "dependent" upon government largess that when it comes to voting many registered Republicans that depend upon the farm economy cross over and vote for the Dem's.
In this election, with D'Ascholes machine working overtime the message was driven home time and time again about the power of incumbancy with the head of the Senate as your co-Senator bringing much "pork" and farmer assistance.
I am not going to get into a debate with anyone about the farmers/ranchers as most people look at the situation with very narrow vision and don't have a clue about the complexities of what has been created by government meddling in farm ecconomics since this state and others were settled.
Bottom line is the Dem's have and continue to do a better job at "buying votes" both legally and illegally and it is a huge problem for you all in the GOP to address and hopefully overcome. Until the GOP figures a way to resolve the mire of farm country ecconomics, or all the farmers go broke we will continue to see states like the Dakota's, Neb, Iowa, Mo, Mn, Mt and a few others continue to support conservative Presidents and turn around and elect liberal Democrats. Tip O'Neal said it best when he said, "All politics are local" or something to that effect.
Life goes on. D'Aschole's power at the national level is gone and I will be surprised if he even runs in two years. Our state legislature with Gov. Janklow's signture has made it impossible for D'Aschole to run for both the senate and the presidency. I don't Tom has the "right stuff" deep inside to step down from the leadership position and be in the minority at the same time. His ego is 6 times larger than his height.
The Dems would say that Repubs are buying votes in their own way with corporate campaign funds, etc. etc. The real deceieder is a clear cut majority that tweaking can't undo...that we didn't have.
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