Posted on Thu, Oct. 10, 2002
Simon's latest stumble might be fatal blow to GOP hopeful's campaign
Mercury News Sacramento Bureau
It was supposed to be the ``October Surprise'' that would knock Gov. Gray Davis off his game and give Republican Bill Simon the last-minute momentum he needed to oust the Democratic incumbent.Instead, it has turned into a devastating debacle that may have sealed the Los Angeles investor's political doom.
In an extraordinary gamble that quickly went awry, Simon charged that Davis had illegally accepted a campaign contribution in the state Capitol. That single now-discredited allegation turned what had been Simon's greatest asset -- his theme that Davis has repeatedly sold out to please campaign contributors -- into the GOP candidate's biggest liability.
The controversy gave Simon the widespread television exposure that he has been unable to get by making news or buying ads -- but it was hardly the coverage he wanted. Four weeks before the election, the incident called into question the credibility of a candidate whose campaign has been plagued with stumbles.
``I don't think one can overstate the damage that's been done by this,'' said Republican political analyst Allan Hoffenblum. ``I think this totally destroys Simon's ability to convince voters that he's a credible alternative to the incumbent.''
For months, Simon has tried to galvanize opposition to Davis by attacking the governor's aggressive fundraising tactics. And he thought he had found the silver bullet when a public safety group told his campaign that they had photographs showing Davis breaking the law in 1998 by accepting a $10,000 check in his state Capitol office.
The photos for the first time gave television reporters the visual evidence they needed to illustrate Simon's main campaign theme. But the photos that aired prominently across California this week ended up illuminating Simon's blunder rather than the governor's wrongdoing.
In 24 hours, Simon's ploy undermined months of relentless assaults on the governor's ethics by trumpeting a baseless charge that Davis had broken the law.
Simon has stumbled numerous times since winning the GOP nomination in March, but many California political analysts viewed the latest Simon misstep as fatal.
``The Simon campaign was sort of dead anyway, but now it's basically a corpse kicking itself,'' said Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California-Berkeley.
With the group that made the claim -- the California Organization of Police and Sheriffs -- retracting its allegations late Wednesday, GOP strategists urged Simon to admit his mistake and try to move on.
``The first thing Simon should do is apologize,'' said Dan Schnur, a political consultant who worked for former GOP Gov. Pete Wilson. ``That shows that he's willing to take responsibility for a mistake. The second thing he should do is fire someone.''
Despite Simon's attempts to blame COPS and distance himself from the controversy, his campaign had planned to use the charge as its ace in the hole.
Republican sources said the Simon campaign had heard about the COPS photographs three or four months ago and had been told by the group last week that they were preparing to make their allegations public.
After weighing the options, Simon agreed to set a trap for Davis on Monday afternoon in the first and only scheduled debate.
``Mr. Davis,'' Simon asked the governor, ``it is illegal to accept campaign contributions in state government office buildings. In your career, have you ever accepted a campaign contribution in the state Capitol or in any of your government offices? Please answer this question yes or no.''
Davis said he has always ``conducted himself within the law,'' and later told reporters he had no memory of ever taking such a donation.
Simon strategists hoped to lure Davis into a lie and then come forward the following day with the damning COPS photos.
But the strategy fell apart right after the debate. Reporters pressed Simon about whether he had hard evidence that Davis had broken the law, as he had implied in the live televised debate.
At first, Simon balked and told reporters to ``stay tuned.'' When reporters persisted, Simon strategist Ed Rollins caught the candidate's attention and gave him the green light to say that he did have evidence.
That sparked an angry demand from reporters for Simon to prove his explosive allegation.
In yet another example of the disarray in the campaign, high-level Simon strategists complained that they had been denied the chance to check out the photos and had to rely on assurances from COPS. Several Simon advisers said they weren't shown the photos until COPS held its news conference on Tuesday.
``A campaign that was doing well would have had a difficult time recovering from such a fiasco,'' said Hoffenblum. ``For one that's already on the ropes, this may well have been the fatal blow.''
Mercury News Staff Writer Mark Gladstone contributed to this report. Contact Dion Nissenbaum at dnissenbaum@sjmercury.com or (916) 441-4603.
During Ronald Reagan's 1966 campaign for governor of California, Republicans established the so-called Eleventh Commandment: "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."