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To: Lazamataz
Do you consider yourself part of the conservative Christian political movement, also known as the religious right? Yes: 14% No: 83%

From: The ABC News Exit Poll

The 1996 figure was 17%.

331 posted on 06/18/2002 3:09:04 PM PDT by Poohbah
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To: Poohbah
Very good. Give me time to look these poll results over to make a determination as to their credibility and how they actually impacted the election -- and, more importantly, if it is safe for Bush to ignore Conservative voters.

But I won't be getting back to you until tomorrow, I have things I must do tonight.

333 posted on 06/18/2002 3:11:36 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Poohbah
Ooooo I see a flaw right off -- this is asking if they are part of the conservative Christian political movement.

I would answer "no" to that question. I am Conservative but not Christian. Furthermore, many Christians who are Conservative might not consider themselves part of that 'movement' but instead consider themselves strictly Conservatives, or independent of the movement (which is widely viewed as the Falwell Religious Right movement).

Do you have figures that prove the point that CONSERVATIVES -- not RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES -- are staying home?

336 posted on 06/18/2002 3:15:41 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Poohbah
From: The ABC News Exit Poll

The 1996 figure was 17%.

Thanks for the research, Poohbah.

After looking at the poll, I would estimate the MOI to be around 7%. Repeatedly there is a non-sensical 5% on polarizing questions such as (not really an example, but for demonstration of some of the responses) "Who would make the better President?" who answered one candidate and voted for the other.

And that consistent 5% of illogical answers doesn't even account for the statistical error in extrapolating results from a sample across the entire voting population.

466 posted on 06/19/2002 6:56:03 AM PDT by Palmetto
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To: Poohbah
Second column represents percentage who voted for Gore who gave that answer, third column represents those who voted for Bush.

If Al Gore wins today, what best describes your feelings about what he will do as president?
   Excited 17 94 6 0 1
   Optimistic, but not excited 31 82 14 0 3
   Concerned, but not scared 27 22 74 0 3
   Scared 23 4 94 1 1

If George W. Bush wins today, what best describes your feelings about what he will do as president?
   Excited 21 4 95 0 1
   Optimistic, but not excited 29 11 87 0 1
   Concerned, but not scared 21 82 13 0 4
   Scared 26 94 1 1 3

Regardless of how you voted today, which of these candidates do you think would do a good job handling an international crisis?
   Only Gore 35 92 5 1 2
   Only Bush 27 5 93 0 1
   Both would 29 40 57 0 2
   Neither would 7 35 48 2 12

Regardless of how you voted today, which of these candidates reflects your own personal view of the role of government in society?
   Only Gore 29 95 4 0 1
   Only Bush 33 4 95 0 1
   Both do 17 50 48 0 2
   Neither does 18

.

.

.

This poll has a built in 4-5% error based on either votes from insane or irrational people, people selecting answers at random, or voters being intentionally dishonest.

A 4% difference between '96 and 2000 is not statistically significant.


506 posted on 06/19/2002 11:28:07 AM PDT by Palmetto
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