[Lazamataz]

Ooooo I see a flaw right off -- this is asking if they are part of the conservative Christian political movement.

I would answer "no" to that question. I am Conservative but not Christian. Furthermore, many Christians who are Conservative might not consider themselves part of that 'movement' but instead consider themselves strictly Conservatives, or independent of the movement (which is widely viewed as the Falwell Religious Right movement).

Do you have figures that prove the point that CONSERVATIVES -- not RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES -- are staying home?

[Poohbah]

However, these people self-identify as conservatives of the religious right. They dropped 3 whole percentage points--or about 4 million voters.

If anything, it actually understates the amount of hand-sitting.

[hchutch]

Rove's estimate was of evangelicals. I'm assuming that meant the Christian Coalition type, and they tend to run conservative, IIRC. Rove's estimate might be off, but it does seem to trend with the facts we have.

Personally, I think the closeness of the race was also signifgantly caused by the DUI smear tried in the last week of the election. The conservatives who did stay home might have kept it from being close had half of them turned out, and some may have stayed home due to that revelation.

The fact is, a perception appears to exist among a VERY close presidential advisor that evangelical Christians, a key part ofthe GOP base, are not turning out in the numbers they are expected to, and Bush is trying to make up for that elsewhere.

What is going to be done about that perception? Unless it changes, Bush will continue to do what he has been doing.

[Harrison Bergeron]

"Do you have figures that prove the point that CONSERVATIVES -- not RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES -- are staying home?"

I would have answered no too, but then, I voted for Bush. Karl Rove explicitly identified the rogue republicans in his speech before the AEI as "white evangelical Christians." Based on that particular poll data, it's pretty clear he was taking mild liberties with the results. BTW Poohbah, I was way off base in my statement that Rove's audience was open to white Christian bashing. The American Enterprise Institute ain't quite the NAACP.