Posted on 06/12/2002 9:05:07 PM PDT by chasio649
In the land of Reagan, GOP faces prospect of a shutout Polls and even Republicans themselves say Democrats look poised to sweep California's top offices in November. By Daniel B. Wood | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
LOS ANGELES - One leading Republican strategist calls the race for governor here "a boxing match with [Democratic Gov.] Gray Davis in one corner hitting himself in the face, while in the other corner a pair of gloves languishes unused."
A second says California Democrats this November could pull off the first, all-partisan sweep of the state's top seven elected offices in more than half a century.
A third calls the Republican predicament statewide here "the most dire in recent memory."
Reflecting a steady demographic shift in race, ethnicity, and income, the state that created the prototypical Republican enclave, Orange Country, and launched the country's most-popular conservative, Ronald Reagan, is tilting more and more Democratic. With the governor's office, both legislative houses, both Senate seats, and most big-city mayors solidly Democratic, some see even bigger gains ahead and wonder if voters may ever look back.
"I don't think this is a blip on the screen," says Larry Berg, founder of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics. He and others recount the rise of Asian and Latino middle classes, the decline of the industrial base of defense-aerospace after the cold war, and the ascendancy of high-tech and entertainment-based wealth are all combining to produce a new kind of voter base with decidedly liberal loyalties. "The makeup of the state just isn't what it used to be," says Mr. Berg.
The latest evidence to play into this theory are the fortunes of Mr. Davis who, despite a rash of top-shelf high-profile bungles, is leading his Republican opponent by a huge margin in a top poll.
Critics blame Davis for the state's energy woes of recent years as well as unpopular strategies to pull through the crisis, such assigning expensive, long-term electricity contracts. Having come into office with a $4 billion surplus, he is widely viewed as the main culprit behind a $23 billion state budget deficit, the largest in US history. And he is also embroiled in a political scandal in which an aide is accused of accepting a $25,000 check from a lobbyist for software company Oracle several days after the state signed a $95 million contract with the same company.
Yet since the March 5 primary, when Davis was two points behind his Republican challenger, Bill Simon, Davis has charged ahead to a 14-point lead in the California Poll. That suggests that if the election were held today among California Poll voters who say they've already decided Davis would be elected by a 20 percent margin.
But besides taking the top office, such a scenario could also ripple across other such high-profile posts as secretary of state, to lieutenant goveronor, controller, treasurer, and insurance commissioner.
"He would probably carry the entire ticket with him," says Tony Quinn, a long-time analyst of political and demographic trends. He says a Davis win could bring with it Democratic seats in the state legislature perhaps close to a two-thirds margin "at which point Republicans would become completely irrelevant in Sacramento."
Mr. Quinn and others see broader consequences from such developments. Across the state, it means a shrinking pool of viable Republican candidates for offices from Congress to statehouse, solidifying Democratic strengths for years to come. Nationally, it includes a Democratic party and presidential candidate who could rely on California's 55 electoral votes and thus spend money as they did in the 2000 election on other states. It also could mean a Bush administration write-off of the state in the interim abandoning key California voter concerns.
"It takes California out of the equation for Bush when he gets no help if he runs here," says Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley. "That's why you see a national farm bill with a lot for Iowa farmers but none for California, or why Bush is willing to do an oil-drilling moratorium off Florida, but not California."
Others say pronouncing the election loss of Mr. Simon or the death of the California Republican party is premature. They cite private polls in which the top candidates are dead-even. And they say the same scenario in which the top vote-getter in the November gubernatorial race influences other key ticket choices could just as easily run the other way.
"It's entirely possible that if voters are so fed up with Davis that they fail to show up at the polls in large numbers, you could also have big Republican wins down the ticket," says Mark DiCamillo, director of the California Poll.
But most analysts say that Simon has not sufficiently taken advantage of Davis' weaknesses partly out of personal style, partly out of political strategy, and partly out of lack of money. His coffers reportedly stand around $8 million compared with Davis' $40 million.
"There are some of us who would like Simon to become more aggressive," says Dan Schnur, a former adviser to Republican Gov. Pete Wilson and former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan. "The energy crisis and the budget mess have put Davis in a bad situation, but Simon has yet to grow his advantage."
Simon's own political advisers say there is no need to jump into a heated battle with Davis now, five months before the election. California's primary was early this year in March leaving more months than usual open to campaigning.
"There is no way voters are going to stand for a six-month election campaign for governor," says Simon campaign chief Sal Russo. "When someone is taking the gun out to shoot themselves, you just don't want to say anything to make them shoot at you."
As he did in the primary, Simon appears to be taking the strategy of letting voters become disenchanted with the opposition, rather than lay out specifics on issues in which voters are already known to resist conservative values.
But some observers say this tactic is even more calculated.
"What's he going to say without getting into trouble?" asks Berg "From water to transportation, to education, to the environment, to crime, he is on the wrong side of the issues from where most California voters are. This is no longer the state it used to be."
Poll: Voters holding their noses
April 29, 2002
If California's election for governor were held now, voters would grudgingly give incumbent Gov. Gray Davis a second term over Republican challenger Bill Simon, according to the latest Field Poll.
While Democrat Davis has a 14 percentage point lead over Mr. Simon, six months before the general election, a deeper look at the numbers indicates unhappiness with both men, says Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll.
"It's kind of a `hold your nose' and vote campaign," Mr. DiCamillo said Monday in an interview on KGO Radio, San Francisco.
He says voters have strongly unfavorably opinions of both candidates. And while Mr. Simon held a slim lead over Mr. Davis prior to the March primaries, that has vanished in the seven weeks since the voting, Mr. DiCamillo says.
"He's become a little better-known," he says. But that not be helping Mr. Simon. Voters "who have gotten a bead on Simon in the past seven weeks" almost uniformly have a negative opinion of the GOP contender, he says.
The poll surveyed 546 voters by telephone April 19 through 25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Posted on Mon, May. 06, 2002 | ||
Unpopular governor leads race, poll shows
Mercury News Ever since the lights went out last spring, Gray Davis has been the governor Californians love to hate. A Field Poll released today found that 49 percent of Californians disapprove of the job he is doing, while 42 percent approve -- a rating that has not improved for nearly a year and puts him squarely among the state's least popular governors in recent memory. Yet those numbers do not seem to be hurting Davis' chances for re-election -- at least not yet. The same poll found the governor is leading his Republican opponent, Bill Simon, by a comfortable 14 points. This seeming contradiction says much about the attitudes Californians have toward their leaders and much about the rare political creature that is Gray Davis. It also helps explain why some analysts believe Davis remains vulnerable in his re-election bid, despite Simon's lackluster showing so far and his position to the right of most California voters on the political spectrum. ``The basic story is that voters pick the best of the worst,'' said Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California-Berkeley. ``We've been doing it for 20 years.'' The poll was taken before revelations that the state had signed a multimillion-dollar, no-bid contract with Redwood Shores firm Oracle to provide state agencies with database software. A Mercury News investigation of the contract led to a state audit, which found the state could be stuck with unneeded software costing millions of dollars. Analysts say the scandal, if it continues, has the potential to threaten the governor's re-election. ``This could be a godsend for Simon, but we'll see,'' said Cain. Depends on record Some say Davis faces a unique obstacle in his bid to be seen as the best candidate. As a politician who readily acknowledges his blandness and even jokes about it, he has never relied on his personal appeal to win over voters. Instead, he has made his case entirely on his record. So when things go wrong, Davis has nothing to fall back on. ``Personality has no impact on people's attitude toward the governor,'' said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. He said his approval ratings merely reflect how well the voters think the state is doing. ``It's all tied to his performance.'' Consider the assessment of Dan Griffing, a 51-year-old software engineer from Sunnyvale. ``I think he's kind of boring,'' Griffing said. He called the governor ``a bean counter, an accountant, not someone that's really a leader.'' Asked about the governor's job performance, Griffing replied, ``Can you say rolling blackouts?'' Davis campaign advisers say they are not worried about the governor's unpopularity, which grew worse when California's energy crisis hit. And there is a precedent for an unpopular governor being re-elected. Pete Wilson, who weathered California's last recession-induced budget crisis, was viewed more negatively than positively by voters yet went on to crush his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Brown. But the three previous incumbents -- George Deukmejian, Jerry Brown and Ronald Reagan -- were all in favor with voters when they won re-election. No incumbent governor has lost an election in California in 36 years. Davis, while once again the front-runner, will still have to wage a vigorous campaign in the fall. The Field Poll, taken between April 19 and 25, found that among registered voters, he fares even worse than he does among all Californians: 55 percent disapprove of his performance, while 39 percent approve. Yet voters have not embraced his GOP opponent. The Field Poll found that just 29 percent support Simon, compared with 43 percent for Davis. The 28 percent of voters who are undecided will determine the election. Simon, a wealthy businessman from Los Angeles, was a political unknown before his upset victory over Richard Riordan in the GOP primary in March. He won, in part, by wooing the conservatives who decide the party's primary but play a lesser role in the general election. Simon dipping Since then, voters appear to be souring on Simon. The April Field Poll found that more people viewed him negatively than positively, although 39 percent still said they had no opinion. The Simon campaign, which maintains that the race is much tighter than the Field Poll found, takes heart in the high percentage of voters who have yet to make up their minds, as well as the governor's low approval rating. ``He's running out of time to convince voters that he should be re-elected,'' said Simon spokesman Jamie Fisfis. But short of a scandal, one analyst says, Davis may not have much to worry about. ``We don't need a guy we can treat like a teddy bear,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior political scholar at the University of Southern California, summing up how she believes voters will approach this election. ``We need a governor who will do as little as possible to make our lives uncomfortable.'' Contact Laura Kurtzman at lkurtzman@sjmercury.com or (408) 920-5608. |
``We don't need a guy we can treat like a teddy bear,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior political scholar at the University of Southern California, summing up how she believes voters will approach this election.
``We need a governor who will do as little as possible to make our lives uncomfortable.''
BARF!
And this is so clear, it hurts.
Lehane and ______?
They must still be working for Davis.
First, Democrats have steadily lost registration. They are now below 45%, a first in decades. Republicans are over 35%, another first in many years. Reps are steadily gaining, Dems are steadily losing. Decline-to-states (so-called independents) are increasing ... not Democrats.
It is true that California is no longer the conservative bastion that elected Ronald Reagan to the Governor's office and the Presidency ... but California is not the liberal pit everyone would have you believe.
California is unique. Voters are, generally, turned off by the so-called "social" issues, but try and tax their SUV and they will drive a stake through your heart. However, even as recent as March 2000, voter by 62% voted for Prop. 22 -- a conservative, social ballot measure that said in California, marriage shall ONLY be between a man and a woman.
California is an expensive state to campaign not just because it has over 30 million citizens and 15 million registered voters. It is expensive because it's really six states. You can't talk about the same issues in Placer County as you do in San Mateo County as you do in Fresno County as you do in San Diego County. I could go on and on ...
Davis IS vulnerable, not just because he is a failure (though that DEFINITELY helps), but because he has made some assumptions about California that aren't helping him. He thinks he can win the election simply because he is pro-abortion. The fact is, few people vote on the abortion issue. People are going to be looking at him and saying, so? Who cares? They may be pro-life or pro-abortion, but they will be united in wanting to know about Davis' failed leadership ... on energy, the state budget, education ... the list goes on and on.
California voters are fickle. They go back and forth depending on what issue sticks in any given year. Davis is trying to create the issue -- abortion -- and it's not going to stick. Been there, done that.
Simon has a solid background, is an outsider (California also likes outsiders, i.e. not a career politician) and has developed into a good candidate and speaker. He's not as "polished" as Davis, but I think people look at Davis and see "phony", "untrustworthy" and look at Simon and think, "nice guy," and "honest". Basically ... they may not agree with everything Simon says, but they'll know he won't stab them in the back and steal their pocketbook while fundraising on the taxpayers' dime and selling his signature to the highest bidder.
Davis is corrupt. We have to get rid of him. Simon stands the best chance.
I wish you lived here too! You are RIGHT ON on your analysis!
GO SIMON!
ONLY POSITIVE USE OF CS SNOTITOR!
About The Field Poll: The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, non-partisan, media-sponsored public opinion news service and has issued over 2,000 different reports. (Taken from a Google search.)
If these left wingers pollsters get a conservative, they will often hang up on you when you identify yourself as a republican or conservative.
I believe that Michael Savage used to joke that they went to the Gay Bath Houses during working hours for normal people to poll the Bath House participants for these polls.
The CS monitor has long been a tool of the Rats in Kali.. This POS posing as an article shows that tradition of being a political tool of the Rats continues.
When do the Rats, the Field/California Poll and the CS monitor lie?
This is one of the most bought out states with union payola, teachers, government jobs and other crapola! They buy the vote big-time out here.
Although I don't necessarily think this is true of Simon, it is such a delicious metaphor for the Democrats and Republicans over the last seven years that I definitely intend to bookmark it for future use.
State Senator Tom McClintock has excellent chances for his bid for Controller. He brought us the vehicle licence fee reductions (but Davis will raise the fees dramatically beginning next year), is very responsible, and is fiscally conservative.
If people see that the current AG has problems investigating the Oracle scandal because of conflicts of interest, Dick Ackerman may have a good chance at the job, too.
I don't know much about the other races, except Lt.Gov. might be a lost cause. This title is almost unrelated to the other 90% of the article slamming Simon's chances based on an outdated poll taken just before the Oracle and other no-bid contracts scandals dominated the headlines.
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