First, Democrats have steadily lost registration. They are now below 45%, a first in decades. Republicans are over 35%, another first in many years. Reps are steadily gaining, Dems are steadily losing. Decline-to-states (so-called independents) are increasing ... not Democrats.
It is true that California is no longer the conservative bastion that elected Ronald Reagan to the Governor's office and the Presidency ... but California is not the liberal pit everyone would have you believe.
California is unique. Voters are, generally, turned off by the so-called "social" issues, but try and tax their SUV and they will drive a stake through your heart. However, even as recent as March 2000, voter by 62% voted for Prop. 22 -- a conservative, social ballot measure that said in California, marriage shall ONLY be between a man and a woman.
California is an expensive state to campaign not just because it has over 30 million citizens and 15 million registered voters. It is expensive because it's really six states. You can't talk about the same issues in Placer County as you do in San Mateo County as you do in Fresno County as you do in San Diego County. I could go on and on ...
Davis IS vulnerable, not just because he is a failure (though that DEFINITELY helps), but because he has made some assumptions about California that aren't helping him. He thinks he can win the election simply because he is pro-abortion. The fact is, few people vote on the abortion issue. People are going to be looking at him and saying, so? Who cares? They may be pro-life or pro-abortion, but they will be united in wanting to know about Davis' failed leadership ... on energy, the state budget, education ... the list goes on and on.
California voters are fickle. They go back and forth depending on what issue sticks in any given year. Davis is trying to create the issue -- abortion -- and it's not going to stick. Been there, done that.
Simon has a solid background, is an outsider (California also likes outsiders, i.e. not a career politician) and has developed into a good candidate and speaker. He's not as "polished" as Davis, but I think people look at Davis and see "phony", "untrustworthy" and look at Simon and think, "nice guy," and "honest". Basically ... they may not agree with everything Simon says, but they'll know he won't stab them in the back and steal their pocketbook while fundraising on the taxpayers' dime and selling his signature to the highest bidder.
Davis is corrupt. We have to get rid of him. Simon stands the best chance.