With eye on '04, Bush to visit California

CRAWFORD, Texas - California has been anything but a golden state for George W. Bush, but the president will try again to revive a state Republican Party that has been riven by philosophical divisions some of them attributable to the White House.

Mr. Bush, who lost California to Al Gore by 1.3 million votes in 2000, returns this week to raise money for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon, who defeated a more moderate candidate backed by the White House in a fractious primary.

With the conservative Mr. Simon considered an underdog in heavily Democratic California, analysts said Mr. Bush must soothe divisions within the state party if he expects to be competitive there in 2004.

"It's more about their long-term project to save the California Republican Party," said Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California at Berkeley.

California Democrats said their views on abortion rights, gun control, public education and the environment are more compatible with the state's voters, particularly the rapidly increasing Hispanic population. Party campaign adviser Bob Mulholland deemed Mr. Bush's visit "irrelevant."

"We continue to raise the issue they're abandoning the state, and they're forced to respond," Mr. Mulholland said.

White House officials said they are confident Mr. Simon can topple Gov. Gray Davis and lead a Republican resurgence in the nation's most-populous state.

"First of all, the president is working for Bill Simon so that he can win," White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said when asked about the fate of California Republicans should Mr. Simon lose. "Ask me that question in November, when Bill Simon is the next governor."

Some White House officials did not expect to see Mr. Simon in this position. They lent support to former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, partly because they thought his more moderate positions on social issues such as abortion gave him a better chance against Mr. Davis.

California conservatives, however, rallied to Mr. Simon, son of former Treasury Secretary William Simon. Shortly after he easily defeated Mr. Riordan in the March 5 primary, Mr. Simon visited the White House to try to work out any remaining differences.

"From our point of view, we cemented the relationship we want to have with the president," said James Fisfis, communications director for Mr. Simon's campaign.

One result of that meeting is a pair of fund-raisers that Mr. Bush will headline in Los Angeles and San Jose.

Mr. Bush, coming off a long weekend at his Central Texas ranch, will stop briefly in New Mexico on Monday, then head for Southern California. Before the Simon reception, the president will discuss his faith-based initiative at a church in Los Angeles, partly to mark the 10th anniversary of the riots there. In San Jose the next day, Mr. Bush will deliver a speech on his philosophy of "compassionate conservatism."

Mr. Simon won the Republican nomination with help from none other than Mr. Davis, a Democrat who financed television ads attacking the more moderate Mr. Riordan. The Davis forces apparently agreed with the White House that the conservative Mr. Simon would be easier to beat because of his opposition to abortion and gun control.

"He's just way out of the mainstream on too many issues," Davis campaign press secretary Roger Salazar said. "Even a president as popular as President Bush won't be able to help that."

Democrats pointed out that this is Mr. Bush's fourth visit to California since becoming president. President Clinton visited California 10 times in his first 15 months in office.

The GOP has lost its hold on the state that launched Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan toward the White House. Among the state's 15.7 million registered voters, 45 percent are Democrats; 35 percent Republicans. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein won re-election two years ago by 19 percentage points. Mr. Davis won his first election in 1998 by 20 points. Democrats dominate statewide offices.

Republicans pointed to voter dissatisfaction with Mr. Davis over the state's energy crisis and other economic problems. Simon aides said that, social issues aside, kitchen table concerns would give them a victory with national ramifications.

"Not only would a Simon victory reinvigorate the party here, it would greatly improve President Bush's chances for re-election," Mr. Fisfis said.

A loss, however, would all but end Mr. Bush's hopes of taking California's 55 electoral votes, more than one-fifth of the 270 needed to win the presidency.

"That means that California a major state, one-eighth of America looks hopeless for the Republicans," said William Schneider, a CNN political analyst who spends a lot of time in the state. "That means they start with a big shackle on their foot."

Losing California would also hobble Mr. Bush's hopes of building Republican support among the rapidly growing Hispanic population. In California, many Hispanics turned against Republicans after Gov. Pete Wilson supported anti-immigration policies. Mr. Bush, as Texas governor and as president, has rejected such policies.

"Hispanics in California see the Republican Party as the enemy, much more so than in Texas," Mr. Schneider said.

Mr. Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at Cal-Berkeley, said state redistricting has made it very hard for Republicans to win the state legislature. Losing the governor's office would make it even harder to organize the state for Mr. Bush's re-election.

Mr. Bush pulled off the rather unusual feat of winning the presidency without California, and may have to think about doing it again, analysts said.

But with Texas, the state that has the second-most electoral votes, firmly in his column and strength in the South and West, Mr. Bush may have the unique luxury of ignoring the Golden State.

"If Simon loses, I think Bush has got to take a good long look at whether it's worth spending any time in California," Mr. Cain said. "He has been burned in California so many times already."

Good. This article tries to undermine the visit, but it's very necessary for Bush to do this--and frequently.

I'm not so sure that they paint the hispanic situation correctly. True, hispanics in California hate Republicans, but that's because of Pete Wilson and his failed anti-immigrant campaign. Bush has been building up a pro-immigrant image (whether or not we like it). Also, I don't believe most hispanics favor abortion, when you get down to it. Many of them are family-oriented Catholics. But it will take a genuine effort to win in California. It's encouraging to see that Bush seems to understand that, and is starting now, not in October when it would be too late.

I wonder if there are any California Freepers who can tell us if the center-left and moderate Republicans are working against Simon. (Their sour grapes can be very obvious at times and they don't even seem to care if it elects lib/dems in the process.)

The hispanics we know (in my husband's work environment and in our everyday life) support our President 100%...and will be voting SIMON in the November election. For some this was most certainly a switch in party support.

GO BUSH AND GO SIMON!

I think this is just a ploy. If Simon wins, Bush knows he'll carry the state, if Simon loses, then on the minimum, he'll make dems have to work to carry the state, and the money they spend in california, will hurt them in other states. Its similiar to a strategy Bush used before. He made Gore campaign in California, instead of Tenn, Ark, and he even made Gore cut back a little bin in Florida. Gore's campaign manager blamed the Zogby's for giving them misleading information, making it appear that california was to close, tenn and ark was going gore and florida had a slight gore edge. The Zogby's in there overly dem optimism, were wrong, and Daily still believes they may have cost them the election.

But it will take a genuine effort to win in California. It's encouraging to see that
Bush seems to understand that, and is starting now, not in October when it would be too late.

Thanks! I've said all along that Bush is always thinkin' 3-4 Chess moves ahead of the pack.......

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