'Overpopulation' Turns Out to Be Overhyped

The Wall Street Journal ^ | March 4, 2002 | Ben J. Wattenberg

[Torie]

It's not often that a scholarly paper declares its implications "momentous," but a newly released report by the United Nations Population Division does just that. And with good cause. In a proposal sexily titled "The Future of Fertility in Intermediate-Fertility Countries," the U.N. concludes that in this century we can expect a "slowing of population growth rates" followed by "slow reductions in the size of world population."

[Torie]

I don't know if the chart comes through (the WSJ is a pay site), but it shows what I have been saying all along, that seems to be ignored by so many here at FR: to wit, that the fertility rates have collapsed in most of the world, including in particular Latin America, and in particular Mexico.

[Torie]

Hey, DI, check out that bar that has the word "Mexcio" next to it. You too Saberrattler. Cheers.

[Jeremy_Bentham]

bump for later.

[KayEyeDoubleDee]

Uh, doesn't the graph indicate that Mexico is still above the replacement rate?

[Texaggie79]

[GuillermoX]

Someone flag Paul Ehrlich.

[Torie]

Yep, barely. Mexico will hit it in about 8 years or so, and then fall below it. That is the projection. In 1980, Mexico was over 4. Now it is about 2.5 I think.

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

Over the past twenty or thirty years, there has been a sea-change in what passes for scientific inquiry. In the old days, when the Scientific Method was properly applied, there would be a hypothesis which scientists would attempt to verify or refute by means of impartial analysis of the data. Those days are long past. The new "science" works this way: a political group has a vested interest in a particular hypothesis, and undertakes studies to prove their point. Many of these studies do not follow proper scientific methodology. That is, data that does not support their position is either overlooked entirely or the study is changed to minimize its impact. We've been fed everything from the Population Bomb to Global Warming, El Nino, disappearing rainforests, extinction of species, disparity in pay between the sexes, the absence of guns in Colonial America (Bellesiles, the author, made up much of the data), daycare is superior to homecare, Aids is not just confined to homosexuals and drug users and about a million more studies concerning everything from oat bran's affect on cancer to the relative cholesterol impact of butter vs. margarine. All these studies have abandoned science in favor of a political agenda. People are finally, slowly, starting to catch on.

[Dark Wing]

ping

[Alberta's Child]

Population Alarmist: "There are too many people in this world."

Alberta's Child: "You don't really believe that."

Population Alarmist: "Yes I do -- it's true."

Alberta's Child: "If you really believed that there are too many people in this world, you would have jumped off a bridge by now. Since you haven't done that, I can only conclude that your REAL point is that there are too many OTHER people in this world."

Population Alarmist: "Uh, . . . "

Population Alarmist: "Hmm, . . . "

Population Alarmist: "Uh, . . . "

Case closed.

[Faraday]

While I agree with much of what Wattenburg has written here, I think the shot at Buchanan was misplaced. The driving force for immigration is economic, not an overpopulation entropy. Given the great changes in fertility since WWII, perhaps the US birth rate will increase to >2.1. Let's hope so.

[Cobra64]

Thomas Malthus had an interesting view on this topic about 150 years ago. Google search on Malthus and take a look... Interesting reading.

[anniegetyourgun]

More HERE from last Friday.

[Maelstrom]

Told ya so.

[Ohioan]

Throughout history, birthrates rise and fall. To predict the birth rate a generation hence, for any race or subrace, nation tribe or family, is no more than foolish speculation. I used to clip the projections from U.S. News, which for a long time was the most reliable of the weekly news magazines, but they were always being disproven by the reality.

There are already far more people on earth than those of us who like a sense of space are really comfortable with. But that does not mean the population will not continue to soar. However, so much of that population is now gathered in vast urban complexes that it seems more than just probable that a new form of plague will vastly reduce this overcrowding, well before we ever find out how accurate the present long-term birth-rate projections really are. Never in human history has so large a percentage of the whole population of the earth been in so vulnerable a position. (Living in such close proximity to so many potential carriers, with so much travel in and out of those who have not had the same previous immunity building exposures.)

While some will suggest this is an alarmist projection, perhaps some with advanced mathematical skills will endeavor to actually measure the increased risk, with proximity and travel factors calculated on the basis of some formula. (Granted, the nature of the contagion may not be predictable, hence the calculation only can be based upon something known--such as a mutation of some known disease, where there is data as to the likelihood of contracting same based upon a calculatable level of exposure that can be determined.)

Unfortunately, my math skills are no better than my knowledge of pathogen to anti-body counts for any ailment. So all I can do is suggest the scenario.

William Flax Return Of The Gods Web Site.

[KayEyeDoubleDee]

Gottcha.

I'll also point out that Lomborg calls the population explosion a big, fat lie.

[Torie]

Well, as oil gets more expensive, more substitutes will be found. It doesn't worry me. I would worry more if India and China didn't develop.

Saudi and Palestine (Gaza has the highest birth rate on the planet), certainly do have high birth rates. But notice how the rate has dropped in Egypt. Notice how Tunisia is at relacement rate. Indonesia is at 2.6 (another large population country). To say that Muslims are breeding like rabbits is way too simplistic.

[Free the USA]

Check the Bump List folders for articles related to the above topic(s) or for other topics of interest.

[zeugma]

From everything I've read about demographic trends worldwide, the best solution to 'overpopulation' is prosperity. Every place in the world that is increasing in prosperity is seeing decreases in birthrate.

Now, if we could only get rid of evil men like Mugabe, and the various others who still hang on to the failed experiments of socialism/communism, we might have a chance to see increased prosperity throughout the world.