Shots across the DMZ: Should we worry?

AT ^ | 11/29/01 | Aidan Foster-Carter

[Enemy Of The State]

PYONGYANG WATCH
Shots across the DMZ: Should we worry?
By Aidan Foster-Carter

Recently this column has delved into some of the murky history of inter-Korean espionage and special operations - in both directions, not just North against South. As readers may guess, pieces of this sort, not directly pegged to current news, mean that your Pyongyang-watcher has been away from his desk and out on the road. Over the past month I've been fortunate to attend two conferences on North Korea, both highly stimulating, in Macau and Japan. More on these another time - Chatham House rules permitting. Now safely back in my Yorkshire eyrie, it's time to return our attention to the immediacy of events.

Two events, to be precise, on one day. Words and deeds, neither very encouraging. On November 26, George W Bush singled out two nations, Iraq and North Korea, for warnings against continuing to produce and export weapons of mass destruction (WMD) while refusing international inspections. His speech was widely interpreted as hinting where the US war against terrorism might go next, after Afghanistan.

A few hours earlier, but only reported a day later on November 27, there was a brief exchange of gunfire across the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Three Northern automatic rounds shattered a window in a Southern guardpost, and the South fired 15 rounds back. It was all over in an instant, and no one was hurt. But this sufficed to spook the Nikkei, which ended Tuesday down 1 percent. Reuters quoted a Japanese equity analyst as saying: "With memories of the September attacks still vivid in our mind, investors had few options but to sell." South Korean stock pickers, though far closer to the action - near Paju, 40 kilometers northeast of Seoul - are made of sterner stuff. The Kospi lost 0.6 percent on Tuesday on its recent bull run, but no one was blaming North Korea much.

Personally, I'm more worried about words in Washington than shots in Korea. Brief border shootouts are far from unprecedented. There have been at least eight in the past decade, including one at the very same spot in June 1998. Indeed, as mentioned in a previous column, in the past rogue ROK agents have even allegedly paid Pyongyang to stage the odd provocation, to scare people into voting conservative. In any case, despite the lack of a dedicated military hotline, in practice both Koreas are wisely careful not to let such incidents escalate out of control. June 1999's bloody but brief naval battle is a case in point.

Still, it's depressing that North Korea is reverting to taking pointless potshots. But at least the South has stopped covering up for them. Contrary to an ROK defense ministry statement that this was the first such incident this year, in September Southern troops fired warning shots two days running at Korean People's Army (KPA) soldiers who crossed the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), the midpoint of the DMZ. Seoul tried to hush up this incident, for fear of derailing inter-Korean talks that were then just resuming after half a year's hiatus.

Even now, with the "Sunshine" policy in tatters, Kim Dae-jung's government is still trying to be nice to a North that shows no sign of reciprocating. Its latest gesture is to drop publication of this year's defense white paper, whose annual designation of North Korea as "principal enemy" always sends Pyongyang into paroxysms of disingenuous rage. Most countries that issue defense white papers don't name a main enemy, and South Korea has only done so since 1995. But the ROK military and conservatives oppose dropping the phrase; so postponing the white paper - ostensibly a cost-saving shift to biennial publication - until next May is the best compromise that Seoul's increasingly beleaguered peace party can manage.

They're also disturbed by the latest rhetoric from the White House. "Hawkish Bush darkens S-N ties" was how the Korea Times headlined its report on Bush's latest warning, while its editorial starkly asked: "Is North Korea next target?" Other Seoul media were less alarmist, and the Times ended up answering its own rhetorical question in the negative. Let's hope they're right. Future columns will review the issue of whether Pyongyang could be in the US firing line, especially over its suspected bioweapons capacity.

One might also take issue with the Korea Times' other headline. Sure, not for the first time a comment from George W is hardly helpful. But what's to darken, at this point? Inter-Korean ties are already about as low as they can go. After all the hopes raise by September's resumption of dialogue, and Pyongyang's long and serious-seeming agenda, the next round of talks collapsed in acrimony. North Korea perversely and speciously chooses to interpret the South's heightened security alert since September 11 (shared with many countries across the globe) as a hostile act, and also as rendering Seoul an unsafe place for further meetings - including what had been an eagerly awaited fourth round of reunions of separated families.

Still bending over backward, South Korea agreed to the latest sixth round of ministerial talks being held at Kumgangsan, despite the Northern resort's inconveniences (there was a lengthy power cut at one point) and lack of the facilities available in Seoul or Pyongyang. But both at the meeting and since, the South's newish Unification Minister Hong Soon-young has taken a tougher stance, to more Northern synthetic fury. Hong's subsequent statement that he had "got the feeling that North Korea did not want to continue dialogue at all" brought condemnation from Pyongyang of his "confrontational" stance. But frankly, most everyone shares that impression currently. And bullets across the DMZ are hardly calculated to change it.

[Valin]

when I frist got to the ROK we were told we were there for two reasons. 1 to keep the north from coming south, and 2 keep the south from going north.

[Tennessee_Bob]

Here's the North Korean spin on the incident

S. Korean troops commit military provocation

Pyongyang, November 27 (KCNA) -- South Korean troops yesterday committed a military provocation by introducing two combat armoured cars into the demilitarized zone of the military demarcation line, according to military sources. The provocation by the South Korean military who were clamouring about "their observance of the armistice agreement" proves their bellicosity and impudence. They are persistently putting a brake on the implementation of the June 15 north-south joint declaration. They should stop a rash act, mindful of grave consequences of the military provocation.

Click here for the enlightened Communist world view.

[backhoe]

I don't have time now to fetch some links, but do you recall that NK missile that nearly got to Alaska a few years ago? Or that Montreal had been "targeted by NK on the theory that hitting Montreal would provoke less reaction from the US than hitting Chicago?"

These people are dangerous! I've heard rumors for years that NK either has, or is pursuing, nuclear warheads for their missiles.

[Enemy Of The State]

I do seem to recall bits of that but not much. I also recall their provocative missile testing over Japan not all that long ago. When you have time Id like to check out some of those links you mentioned. Regards, EOTS

[backhoe]

The precursor to this series of posts:

DUBOB 9-- even *more* tales from the Dark Underbelly of the Beast.....

was a scrapbook of newsitems "the media mentioned once then forgot about"-- the "Montreal targeted" reference was from that, and that dang NK missile almost made it to Alaska- no doubt the newer versions are better. I've made a note to do a web search later ( altho I'd swear I tried earlier without much luck ) & if I find anything, I'll advise.

[backhoe]

Here is what a cursory search turned up.... while I could not find a web link to "Montreal targeted," there is plenty to be concerned about:

Word get wise to P'yonyang's Nuclear Blackmail
... for deployment. In the same month as the test, US intelligence agencies had informed
Tokyo that a North Korean missile test was imminent. Even immediately ...

THE NORTH KOREAN MISSILE TEST - US OPINION ROUNDUP
www.fas.org/news/dprk/1998/980902-dprk2.htm - Similar pages

Government Executive Magazine - 8/10/00 On the Brink of ...
... just a theoretical possibility. "There's no question the report and the North Korean
missile test over Japan caught our attention, changed some minds, and ...

Global Beat: GRN Publications--Politics and the Agreed ...
... 10 to 15 nuclear weapons "was an extraordinary achievement." "The North Korean
missile test [on August 31] shattered our complacency," said Laney, "and the ...

Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle -- Chronology page 2
... 1: South Korean Prime Minister Kim Jong Pil arrived in Tokyo for talks with Prime
Minister Keizo Obuchi about discouraging a North Korean missile test-launch. ...

Yorkshire CND - Choice Of Rumsfeld Creates Solid Team For ...
... Either way, the commission's report - and a provocative North Korean missile test
a month later - led the Clinton administration to propose its own limited ...

North Korea Special Weapons
Category: Society > Issues > ... > Nuclear > Proliferation > Asia > East Asia

On the Issues
... the Clinton administration and others may hope that the deal will keep the North
Korean nuclear program in check, the deal is more likely to help sustain and ...
www.aei.org/oti/oti10348.htm - 9k - Cached - Similar pages

[backhoe]

Rats! Here's a better summary- on FR, naturally!

C.I.A. Sees a North Korean Missile Threa...