Posted on 11/22/2007 8:25:31 AM PST by George W. Bush
The Ron Paul Factor
By Matt Towery
Thursday, November 22, 2007
As we continue to poll and observe the various states involved in the early caucus/primary battles for the Republican presidential nomination, one thing is becoming increasingly clear to me: While Ron Paul may lag behind most of his GOP competitors in the polls, the intensity of devotion from his supporters makes his candidacy deserving of more attention than it's gotten to date.
His sometimes-quirky mannerisms and oddball demeanor fly in the face of what most Republicans traditionally look for in their presidential nominees. And his comments startle many for their bluntness and contrariness to long-running establishment GOP thinking.
That's exactly why Paul could have an unexpected impact not only on the Republican nomination process, but also on the November general election as well.
Consider that over 600 people turned out for a rally for Paul in Reno, Nevada, recently. The media described the crowd as a mixed group that included many college students.
That's another indicator of the potential impact of the Paul campaign. I recall in 1980 when establishment Republicans and conservatives were backing George H.W. Bush, John Connally or Howard Baker for president.
But on college campuses, the birth of the modern College Republicans movement was feeding off of the support of frustrated college students for the maverick in the race, Ronald Reagan.
Don't get me wrong. I am not predicting Paul will pull a Reagan and somehow beat out the GOP's establishment contenders. I will suggest that Paul may fatally damage several potential candidates, and perhaps the entire Republican Party, if he breaks away and runs as a legitimate third-party candidate after Tsunami Tuesday's primaries in early February.
Paul blends a unique mixture of cynicism over the health of the economy, loud opposition to the erosion of civil liberties, plus a stand as the only GOP candidate who's flat-out opposed to the war in Iraq.
Those issues unite a seemingly disparate group of voters who collectively feel that 20 years of the presidency being shared between two families -- the Clintons and Bushes -- is more than enough. They are voters who have found their mouthpiece in Paul, who's willing to voice their frustration over Republicans, Democrats and whoever and whatever else represents "The Establishment."
Paul could be deadly to someone like conservative Mike Huckabee, who is steadily rising in many polls but can't be assured of the devoted turnout of his supporters, as Paul almost surely can.
Paul's words have also taken away some of the ink that should have gone to Fred Thompson, who entered the race as the supposed "I'll say anything and throw caution to the wind" candidate, but whose measured and often boring campaign speeches have consistently fallen short of their billing.
Unlike many GOP candidates, Paul hasn't tried to have his cake and eat it, too, on the subject of President Bush. He has little or nothing charitable to say about the president. And with new revelations coming from Bush's own press secretary about "who knew what when" in the CIA leak scandal, Paul's distance seems all the wiser.
How do I think Ron Paul will impact 2008? It's at least possible that he'll fare better than expected -- and not just eventually in scattered primaries, but as early as next week in the much-awaited CNN/YouTube debate in Florida. Paul is often quicker and less plastic than his counterparts, and could do well in such a format.
But where will Ron Paul really do his damage? It could be by seriously damaging the Republican establishment his followers so despise.
How? By running as a third-party candidate. In critical "Red States," where the vote may turn on just a small percent, Paul could block any hope of a GOP victory.
That would likely mean a Hillary Clinton presidency. But it might also mean a true remake of the Republican Party for the future. The abandonment of the get-along, go-along Republican Party is something that many, including and beyond Paul's supporters, would like to see.
Matt Towery is a former National Republican legislator of the year and author of Powerchicks: How Women Will Dominate America.
meeting people for dinner. will read your post and get back with you. currently in asia and 13 hours ahead of NYC.
thanks
I’m not at all sure why you thought I attribute the majority of Ron Paul’s support to his anti-war stance. While that is certainly some of the reason and the principal reason for the opposition to RP here on FR, his anti-war stance is only incidental to his overall policy direction.
RP and most of his hard core supportes do not see the GOP as an ally but as an impediment to their objectives. They would like nothing more to destroy the GOP and create a libertarian based party in it’s place. I would go so far as to say that RP and most of his hard core supporters would also like to see the destruction of the US government as it is presently structured. Given the chance, they would roll back the size of the US government to that of approximately 1860. If you doubt this, then name one federal agency created since 1860 that Ron Paul has not advocated abolishing.
But how will we Look in the Eyes of World Opinion if we invade the world? Not to worry; we can always get the cover of our kept stooges in the UN, NATO, or whatever. Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who is already reneging on his agreement to run for only one term as UN secretary-general, is perfect for the job; no more power-hungry UN official has ever existed. But what about the Security Council? That’s OK, because we can always buy off the abstention of China or whoever for a few billion. No problem.
And then the whole world will subsist under the U.S. and UN flags, happy, protected, free of crime and poverty and hate. What could be more inspiring?
A few isolationist, narrow-minded, selfish, callous, and probably anti-Semitic gripers, however, are bound to complain. They like to talk about various “lessons,” for example, Somalia. They like to say: well sure we can get in and “win” easily, but how do we get out? In order to fix up democracy, genocide, poverty, hate, etc., we the United States, must create the country’s infrastructure, set up and train its entire army and police (preferably in the U.S.). We must teach the benighted country about freedom and free elections, create its two Respectable political parties, and begin with a massive multi-billion dollar aid program to make everyone healthy, wealthy, and wise, provide an educational program (replete with dropping huge bags of food by plane so CNN can do handsprings even if some of the “helped” are killed by the bags), outlaw smoking and junk food, and feed them all with tofu and organically grown mangoes.
This essay is found in the work, ‘The Irrepressible Rothbard’
Link given upon request
A return to the Constitution is the agenda that people are looking for, it is a return to sanity.
The GOP is either going to re-energize around the freedom message or it is going the way of the Whig Party.
His freedom message is too consistent.
And what do you consider 'sane' spending the United States into bankruptcy?
The GOP is committing political suicide, a return to the views of Ron Paul, adherence to a Constitutional gov't, is the only thing that will save it.
What, the 2nd Amendment doesn't apply to toddlers!
Fascism!
I think that is the view held by many on FR today!
Poor waifs can't even get a CCW for a .22 pistol.
Mount the ramparts!
either you are trying to pass off a "fake News" satire article as real...
or
you did not realize this was satire and they need to put your picture next to gullible in the dictionary ... sigh ...
I’m a Thompson supporter.
Seems to me most freepers like his domestic policies.
*****RP and most of his hard core supportes do not see the GOP as an ally but as an impediment to their objectives. They would like nothing more to destroy the GOP and create a libertarian based party in its place. I would go so far as to say that RP and most of his hard core supporters would also like to see the destruction of the US government as it is presently structured. Given the chance, they would roll back the size of the US government to that of approximately 1860. If you doubt this, then name one federal agency created since 1860 that Ron Paul has not advocated abolishing.****
A tax and spend,nanny state Republican is only slightly better than a tax and spend, nanny state democrat.
I think Ron Paul has said that it would be possible to reduce the size of the federal government to its size 10 years ago, in four years. If just that would happen, the run on the dollar would stop and we would be reducing our national debt. You would see prosperity returning to this country.
Perhaps you could tell what new agencies since then that you would be for keeping and if you think they are constitutional. Off hand I would say he would probably keep the Secret Service and the FBI.
So is it the belief RP supporters interfered with the “giving day” fundraiser?
I was looking at the pro Paul sites and, maybe I missed it, but I did not read anyone bragging about impeding the Thompson F/R effort.
All kidding aside, is that speculation on some bloggers part or is there proof.
Pay back is he77 and you guys could do what you have to to impede our progress in the next fundraiser.
I just don’t think that the case and I would stand corrected if shown some proof. Just a note, RP supporters were accused of doing some email scamming. After thorough follow up, it was determined a supporter of Rudy was doing the spamming.
I for one have nothing against Fred nor would I participate in any disruption to his campaign. My beef is with Rudy, Romney, Huckster and McCain (potential vp candidate for hillary).
GWB, you are plugged in as well as anyone on RP, do you know or have you heard his supporters interfering with the FT fundraiser the other day??
So how much money did Fredsgiving Day raise for your candidate? Why don’t you guys want to talk about it? Was it that embarrassing?
“you are plugged in “
You know I meant that with the utmost respect and sincerity.
If it is a “moneyfart”, I can understand the posturing around F/T to lay blame on, of all people, RP supporters. Guess by Obama’s fizzle too, RP must have googled bombed them too.
Ron Paul is responsible for global warming.
It may pain some people to hear, but I can understand why, if there was an attempt at disruption, the first suspects would be RP's supporters. My experience on other forums has been that RP supporters are not only generally kooky, they're incredibly rude. His support on FR has been the exception.
Just take a look at YouTube, where there is a huge RPite presence. Every other video has comments from RP supporters personally insulting other candidates and their YT supporters. YT isn't exactly the pinnacle of civilized political discussion to begin with, so for RP supporters to stick out as the worst of the bunch is saying something.
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