Posted on 11/22/2007 8:25:31 AM PST by George W. Bush
The Ron Paul Factor
By Matt Towery
Thursday, November 22, 2007
As we continue to poll and observe the various states involved in the early caucus/primary battles for the Republican presidential nomination, one thing is becoming increasingly clear to me: While Ron Paul may lag behind most of his GOP competitors in the polls, the intensity of devotion from his supporters makes his candidacy deserving of more attention than it's gotten to date.
His sometimes-quirky mannerisms and oddball demeanor fly in the face of what most Republicans traditionally look for in their presidential nominees. And his comments startle many for their bluntness and contrariness to long-running establishment GOP thinking.
That's exactly why Paul could have an unexpected impact not only on the Republican nomination process, but also on the November general election as well.
Consider that over 600 people turned out for a rally for Paul in Reno, Nevada, recently. The media described the crowd as a mixed group that included many college students.
That's another indicator of the potential impact of the Paul campaign. I recall in 1980 when establishment Republicans and conservatives were backing George H.W. Bush, John Connally or Howard Baker for president.
But on college campuses, the birth of the modern College Republicans movement was feeding off of the support of frustrated college students for the maverick in the race, Ronald Reagan.
Don't get me wrong. I am not predicting Paul will pull a Reagan and somehow beat out the GOP's establishment contenders. I will suggest that Paul may fatally damage several potential candidates, and perhaps the entire Republican Party, if he breaks away and runs as a legitimate third-party candidate after Tsunami Tuesday's primaries in early February.
Paul blends a unique mixture of cynicism over the health of the economy, loud opposition to the erosion of civil liberties, plus a stand as the only GOP candidate who's flat-out opposed to the war in Iraq.
Those issues unite a seemingly disparate group of voters who collectively feel that 20 years of the presidency being shared between two families -- the Clintons and Bushes -- is more than enough. They are voters who have found their mouthpiece in Paul, who's willing to voice their frustration over Republicans, Democrats and whoever and whatever else represents "The Establishment."
Paul could be deadly to someone like conservative Mike Huckabee, who is steadily rising in many polls but can't be assured of the devoted turnout of his supporters, as Paul almost surely can.
Paul's words have also taken away some of the ink that should have gone to Fred Thompson, who entered the race as the supposed "I'll say anything and throw caution to the wind" candidate, but whose measured and often boring campaign speeches have consistently fallen short of their billing.
Unlike many GOP candidates, Paul hasn't tried to have his cake and eat it, too, on the subject of President Bush. He has little or nothing charitable to say about the president. And with new revelations coming from Bush's own press secretary about "who knew what when" in the CIA leak scandal, Paul's distance seems all the wiser.
How do I think Ron Paul will impact 2008? It's at least possible that he'll fare better than expected -- and not just eventually in scattered primaries, but as early as next week in the much-awaited CNN/YouTube debate in Florida. Paul is often quicker and less plastic than his counterparts, and could do well in such a format.
But where will Ron Paul really do his damage? It could be by seriously damaging the Republican establishment his followers so despise.
How? By running as a third-party candidate. In critical "Red States," where the vote may turn on just a small percent, Paul could block any hope of a GOP victory.
That would likely mean a Hillary Clinton presidency. But it might also mean a true remake of the Republican Party for the future. The abandonment of the get-along, go-along Republican Party is something that many, including and beyond Paul's supporters, would like to see.
Matt Towery is a former National Republican legislator of the year and author of Powerchicks: How Women Will Dominate America.
What the Freak is google bombing? LOL
Accept my apology here in advance because I do not see your point about RP supporters bashing Thompson or Thompson being a threat to them as to go out and push Huckabee to discredit Thompson. That would seem to be speculation on your part?
I understand some time ago that RP supporters were accused of sending out spamming emails. When they followed the trail, it was a Rudy supporter who was doing it to discredit RP.
Ron Paul and Alex Jones relationship goes back some 13 or so years according to Jesse Benton of the RP campaign. AJ was liked by many FR guys back in the day of trashing Bill Clinton to my understanding. Funny too because I never heard of AJ till I joined FR. I don’t listen to AJ but than again, I don’t listen to O’Reilly, Hannity or any of the other entertainers. Well, maybe Rush every once in awhile.
As far as the “illegal cash” my understanding, correct me GWB if I am wrong, was some hackers who hacked into Frost Bank and stole credit card numbers. On the 5th of Nov, the hackers (identity thief’s), in order to minimize suspicion, used this day to make a 5.00 donation (minimum amount) to see if the cards were valid. Once the hackers determined the cards were valid, they went on shopping sprees. Smart hackers to recognize an opportunity like this. They would have aroused suspicion if, lets say/write, they did the minimum purchase on a walmart, gap, etc website in the amount of time they did on RP. I am sure it would have been flagged. Frost bank identified their security breach and notified their customers. RP’s campaigned were told of the erroneous purchases and refunded the monies. I think the amount was about 2500.00 dollars using about 500 or so credit cards. GWB, again, correct me if I am wrong.
The blame is not on RP’s campaign, but on the security of Frost Banks network system. Hope they fixed it for the sake of their customers. Lets hope that does not happen to any other candidate, but I wouldn’t be so sure.
Based on what I have read over and over again, as RP supporters on FR debunk what is thrown at us, we still have our “cut and past” folks rehashing the same old arguments. Check out the next RP thread and you will see/read this to be true.
Per your other post, Thompson/Hunter ticket, switch it and I would support it but not as enthusiastically as I would a Paul/Hunter ticket. LOL
“RP supporters focus on Dr. Paul, not on Huckabee or Thompson. There is some real hatred for Giuliani though.”
I AGREE!
Thanks. I did a google for Fred. How did the “giving day” fundraiser go?
No idea. It was a holiday.
It was supposed to be on Nov. 21. Two days ago. So it must have bombed completely or someone would know how much it raised.
I think you’d better worry about your moneybomb failure far more than your Google rankings.
Nov 21, giving day.
That would make sense. I didn’t think his campaign manager would do a fundraiser on thanksgiving day. With the busiest holiday travel day, wednesday, that probably was not the best day to do a fundraiser.
Lets just hope, who ever it is, minus Rudy and Romney, that we beat Hillary/Obama/McCain ticket.
"In addition to the core messages of Dr. Paul's campaign, which include strong support for selective interpretation of the U.S. Constitution, the immediate deportation of all illegal aliens, more assault rifles for toddlers, zero taxes and the eventual dismantling of all branches of federal government," Mr. Willhauser said, "Mr. Schecter will be tasked with energizing 'Paul's Pushers'. These are a small but growing legion of volunteer supporters who see to it that every single news report or opinion piece having anything to do with Ron Paul – if it's supportive of the candidate, that is – makes it to the top of every single social networking site out there."
Well, that was good for a couple chuckles.
Exactly. And that one was actually funny and well-written. But why do you think there are so many articles like this in Paul blogs and in anti-Paul blogs? Because everyone knows he’s doing it.
The Paul supporters use all the negative things said about him in the headlines of their articles - another trick. Also found an LA Times article where a Paul supporter was accusing another campaign of google-bombing them. No one gives two hoots about google-bombing Ron Paul. Although if the crap doesn’t stop, there are probably a few who would consider it.
And of course, the Dems are pushing it along because it helps their cause.
This is kind of like CAIR and other Islamist propaganda. They spin the truth to get sympathy or exaggerate everything.
RON PAUL RON PAUL RON PAUL
You are confusing the anti-war support for Ron Paul now with the anti-war issue of the 60’s. The young supporters of Ron Paul are not worried about having to fight a war as the college students of the 60’s were. There is no draft now. They are attracted to Ron Paul with his message of freedom, smaller government, less taxes, getting out of SS (most of them do not think it will be there for them), etc.
Plus, the economic situation of most young people is very bad. Wages have not gone up enough to compensate for the increase in inflation. Many college students have to take out large amounts of loans to get through college and they know that jobs, which would allow them to pay off the loans fairly easily, are not out there now.
The anti-war message might have drawn them to Ron Paul, but the ardent support is based more on his conservative, small government principles.
Understand, so same as the 5th of Nov., fundraiser Paul did.
Correct me if I’m wrong, when you click the link to contribute, it goes to FDT’s donation/contribution website,right? Make it honest, ethical and easier when the RP supporter did it.
Do you know how well it did?
I don't understand your wording here.
Do you know how well it did?
Depends how you define "well" ... :)
I guess the amount taken in won't be known until the usual records are released. Certain dollar amounts were set on the pledge widget, so I guess the person(s) behind the site know that amount total. I'm not expecting but the tiniest fraction of the last RP bomb, due to quite a few things.
“Make it honest, ethical and easier when the RP supporter did it.”
Honest; Preventing someone from claiming to raise funds for a particular candidate and you donate to the site and expecting in good faith the money, all of it, goes to that particular candidate.
Ethical; Lets say the said fundraiser was above board, and raised 50K dollars, there are laws in place to the amount of money a contributer, pac, etc could make.
Easier; Because it goes directly to the candidate, eliminating the two factors mentioned and any other variable which could come into play.
“Depends how you define “well” ... :)”
Agree. Everyone has a certain goal when doing a fundraising. For instance on RP’s 5th of Nov., the chatter, per the organizer, was expecting up to 10 million dollars. The number was about 4.2 million dollars (+/-). Regardless, a healthy amount, some would say well. If you raise 5, 10. 20% more than I did the day before, week, etc, that may be well, if it is less, than “well”, it’s still more than I had the day before. LOL
“I’m not expecting but the tiniest fraction of the last RP bomb, due to quite a few things.” Good news is if it is successful congratulations to both the Campaign and the independent person who organized the f/r. If not, you get to clobber the f/r and blame them for the poor showing. Hence doing a political f/r during a holiday. A RP supporter did the same thing on Veterans Day, and raised about 235K (est), a good number though the expectation was 1 million. Still better than their daily cash intake of about 175K.
The money the republicans are raising is not near as much as Hillary and Obama. Why/how they are raising so much is beyond me. At the end of 3Q, hills had over 50 million in cash, 36 million for Obama and Rudy topped out the republicans at 16 million.
Again, thanks for your info.
Good news is if it is successful congratulations to both the Campaign and the independent person who organized the f/r. If not, you get to clobber the f/r and blame them for the poor showing. Hence doing a political f/r during a holiday.
Well, there were so many things working against this (relative to Democrats and Ron Paul, especially) that I don't think mentioning them would be the same as making excuses.
The money the republicans are raising is not near as much as Hillary and Obama. Why/how they are raising so much is beyond me.
In the case of Democrats and probably Clinton in particular, their average contribution amounts tend to be much larger than those of Republicans, last I read (last campaign season). Either their donors are more generous (ha.) or they just have more expendable $ laying around, meaning they're wealthier on average - they inherited theirs and can throw it away, in contrast to Republicans of similar worth, small business owners. These are sweeping generalities, of course, but I believe they've been proven before.
In Paul's case, his success over other Republicans has got to be due in part to the fact that his supporters skewer much younger, are therefore connected on-line in a greater percentage and are savvier regarding the technology, and thus assembled more effectively. The same is also a large part of Democrats' success.
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