Posted on 10/29/2007 11:31:08 PM PDT by OrthodoxPresbyterian
Ron Pauls inclusive message attracting African American voters
Maple Brown, USA Daily
Published 10/25/2007 - 11:34 a.m. EDT
Ron Pauls inclusive message of peace, freedom, and prosperity may be attracting African American voters. According to this poll, Ron Paul leads his GOP opponents among black voters in general election contests.
In general election matches Paul loses among African American voters 60% to 33% against Hillary Clinton and loses 61% to 31% to Barack Obama.
In 2004 CNN exit polls show Bush receiving 11% of the African American vote in the general election against Kerry.
The averages of general election match up against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama are for Paul, Romney, McCain or Giuliani are, Ron Paul - 32%, Mitt Romney - 23.5%, John McCain - 20%, Rudy Giuliani - 16%.
If the polls are accurate it could mean that Ron Pauls message that Freedom unites people is working. Pauls uncompromising defense of the Bill of Rights is making him a Civil Rights Leader in his own right. ("Ron Paul inspiring new Civil Rights movements")
The poll, if accurate, could also mean that Ron Pauls message of repealing the police state is resonating with African American voters.
Paul does appear to be a uniting political force attracting supporters at his events from all walks of life.
USA Daily does not encourage its readers to allow polls to influence their voting decisions in any way. They are too often inaccurate. This statement is not a comment on the poll in question just on polling in general. (Discuss the election on www.usadaily.net)
Here's the problem I have with this article and the poll numbers.
In the first set there are 1200 voters in the first poll, Paul vs Hillary, but no breakdown on the demographics involved. This could be represented as very few blacks called so the percentage looks higher.
In the second set, the same thing occurs.
Without equal demographic data, these numbers can only be considered false. The disparity between the initial numbers, 1200 vs 800 indicates this is the case. Without a consistient demographic breakdown, and the numbers of black voters being equal in both combinations, these numbers are false.
I need a medical study to prove the obvious? Maybe we need to set up a blue ribbon commission.
Jim C. Perry
Profile
Location: Manchester, NH
My Story: I live in West Manchester, NH. I am a member of Granite State Liberals and I plan on running for State Representative in 2008.
Birth Date: January 16th
Issues: Civil Liberties; Civil Rights; Economic Growth; Education; Election Reform; Good Government; Military Issues
Registered to Vote: Yes
Party Affiliation: Democrat
Political Identification: Progressive
My Religious Views
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:IhLR19AfvzEJ:www.jimcperry.com/religion.html+%22Jim+C.+Perry%22+%22new+hampshire%22+jewish&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
Religion: I consider myself a Jewish Unitarian Universalist Transhumanist Quaker. Yeah, it's a mouthful and understandably so.
http://newhampshireunderground.com/forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=8f7d41c84ab77985422592821f84244d&topic=11006.0
One of our own being the Democrat organizer/financier of Jews4RonPaulDear Friends,
I wish to offer a serious warning about one of our own. Part of being anti-government must include taking personal responsibility and policing our own communities. I have avoided using other people's names in this post, out of respect for those with whom I did not consult prior to posting this and who may not agree with my decision to do so. But many of them are known to you. I know this post is long, but I encourage you to read through to the end, to have a better understanding of the number of people who have already been hurt and over such a long period of time. My goal is to prevent Jim from doing further harm in our community.You are probably personally acquainted with Jim aka JP, and, like myself, have socialized with him at BBQs, conferences and PorcFest. You may have found him to be pleasant and charming. Unfortunately, I believe that he is completely untrustworthy. Im not just talking about flakiness, either. Im talking about repeated acts of irresponsibility, thoughtlessness, lies, and even theft and fraud.
A year ago, when I was running for the Executive Committee of the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire (LPNH), two different people pulled me aside and quietly encouraged me to run *against* Jim for the position of Secretary. At that point, I knew Jim had a reputation for flakiness. However, that was all I knew. I was hesitant to run against someone I considered to be a friend, as well as a fellow Free Stater. And I didnt want to hurt anyones feelings. I chose to run for the position of Treasurer instead, as the current Treasurer had been serving for 5 years and had expressed an interest in stepping down. I won the position of Treasurer, and Jim won the position of Secretary. Perhaps if those who had warned me had been more explicit, some or all of the following events could have been avoided. I am now wondering just how many of us have had bad experiences with this young man, and weve all been keeping it quiet, not realizing the extent of it. Well, sunshine is the best disinfectant, so allow me to shine some light on some of my experiences with Jim over the past two years. While I have also heard rumors of other peoples negative experiences, I will leave it to them to share, or not, as they wish.
Last year I attended almost all of the LPNHs monthly meetings. Although Jim was serving on the ExComm at the time, and his presence was necessary to form a quorum, I never once saw him at a meeting. More than once, I observed then-Chair John B. to say that he had just spoken with Jim, who had assured him that he would be at the meeting. I inwardly observed that John, and his wife (who was also on the ExComm) had therefore made the 2 hours round-trip drive from Grafton to Concord and were unable to conduct any formal party business. This hindered the ExComm in such ways as being unable to vote to give party funds to candidates running for office.
In April 2006, Jim told me that he had been fired as an outreach Liaison for the Free State Project. He didnt say why. This struck me as very odd, seeing as how the FSP was in great need of volunteers, and I was under the impression that Jim was one of the top recruiters of new members for the FSP. I inquired about this via email to the Board of Directors of the FSP (on which I was serving at the time). I never received an explanation as to why Jim had been fired; I was simply told that it was within the rights of the Liaison Coordinator to do so. I was left to assume that the LC was some kind of meanie and that my friend Jim had been wronged. I now wonder if information was being withheld in a misguided attempt to protect the guilty (although this is just speculation on my part).
In Dec 2006, while serving as First 1000 project manager for the FSP, one of my phone bank volunteers told me that he had spoken by phone with an FSP participant in Massachusetts recruited to the FSP by Jim. This participant had no recollection of having joined the FSP.
On Feb. 15, 2007, Jim suggested to the LPNH ExComm via email that we have a gun raffle to raise funds. We agreed that it sounded like a good idea. Jim ordered raffle tickets from an MVP member who owns a print shop, and started selling them at the FSPs Liberty Forum conference. On Feb. 23, in the LPNH hospitality suite at NHLF, he told me, the Chair and a former ExComm member, in the presence of several other people, that he had already sold enough tickets to cover the cost of the guns being raffled off. Per Jims original written budget, the cost of the guns was $825.
In April 2007, the person who printed the raffle tickets contacted me and said that the LPNH had never paid her. Apparently she had given an invoice to Jim, and he never passed it on. After giving me a replacement invoice, she was paid (late).
Also in April 2007, the LPNH held a convention at St. Anselms in Manchester. We provided a buffet lunch to attendees. We never received an invoice for this lunch, which cost approximately $1000. I asked Jim repeatedly for any info, as he was the one who had made the arrangements with St. Anselms. He never provided me with an invoice, contact name or phone number. Finally I dug up an email address on the internet and contacted St. As myself. They got back to me promptly and said they had mailed the invoice to Jims home address. At my request, they sent a replacement invoice to the LPNH and were paid (late).
On May 2, 2007, Jim sent out an email to a number of LPNH members, at the Chairs request, announcing an emergency meeting of the LPNH on May 4. Despite the fact that I had a houseguest from the West Coast at the time, I made arrangements to be at the meeting location in Manchester at the announced time. At least three other LPNH members drove in from other towns. When we arrived, we were told by a member who lives in the building where our meetings take place that the meeting was cancelled. Jim never showed up. Apparently the Chair cancelled the meeting just hours before its start time, told Jim, and Jim made no effort to notify anyone else. The Chair later apologized for this mishap; Jim never offered any explanations or apologies.
On June 9, 2007, a meeting was scheduled and publicly announced for the Hillsborough County LP, of which Jim is the Chair. After my experience with the emergency meeting on May 4, I made a point of calling Jim two hours prior to the start time of the meeting, to confirm that it was taking place. He assured me that it was taking place, that he would be there, and that nine people had RSVPed. I drove to Manchester in pouring rain to find only one other LPNH member in attendance. Jim never showed, never called me, and never offered me a word of explanation or apology.
In July 2007, having never received any money from Jim for raffle ticket sales, and in an email discussing various other points of LPNH business, I asked him to bring the money and the stubs to the upcoming LPNH meeting. He never responded. Three days later, he resigned his position as Secretary via email, with no advance notice. He stated in his letter of resignation that he would hand over his ticket stubs and cash to another member of the ExComm.
Since Jims resignation on July 5, he has been asked a minimum of 11 times, by at least five different LPNH members, via a combination of emails and phone calls, to hand over the raffle tickets (both sold and unsold) and the cash he collected. We made numerous efforts to resolve the matter with him privately. I internally proposed to the rest of the ExComm the possibility of making long-term repayment arrangements with him for the cash, if for whatever reason he didn't have it in his possession at the present time , if he would only give us the ticket stubs. I personally offered to meet him at a time and place convenient for him to retrieve the ticket stubs. I cant speak for others, but for myself, I continually believed that this was all youthful irresponsibility on Jims part. He ignored all email communications from both myself and the Chair. He repeatedly made telephone statements to various individuals of I will give the stubs and cash to so and so in a day or two, but it never happened.
On September 9, out of a desire to avoid defrauding dozens of people who had bought LPNH raffle tickets from Jim but stood no chance of winning a prize, the LPNH ExComm passed a motion to go public with the fact that Jim had never handed over any of his ticket stubs, and to offer replacement tickets or refunds to the purchasers. We gave Jim a deadline of two weeks to hand over the ticket stubs, and additional time to hand over the cash. The party Chair informed him of this privately. Jim did not respond.
On 9/25/07, after the two week deadline had passed and as I was preparing to send out the public notices about the raffle, another LPNH member chose to make a last-ditch effort to resolve the matter with Jim privately. He called Jim at 9:00PM on a weeknight and made arrangements to drive to his home in Amherst to retrieve the ticket stubs and cash. After he made the drive, Jim failed to hand over any cash, although he did hand over some ticket stubs. Furthermore, Jim said Too bad you didnt get here sooner, or I could have gone to the bank. Once again, Jim had been called at 9:00PM, and had said before this person drove to Amherst that Jim had the cash to give him.
I and the rest of the LPNH ExComm received an email the same night from someone who was told by Jim that he gave the tickets and the cash to the person who drove to Jims home in Amherst. Since this directly conflicted with what I had been told by the person who drove to Jims house, I asked the email writer for verification. When I questioned this person, they revealed that they, personally, and others that they know, have also had experiences with Jim withholding owed funds (direct quote). If forced to choose between Jims word and the other LPNH member, they would go with the other person.
The LPNH will honor our obligations to our friends and supporters who bought raffle tickets. We have purchased a raffle permit, will buy the guns from Rileys as Jim arranged, and will award them to two ticket buyers. But the only one who raised any funds via this venture was Jim C. Perry.
While I dont intend to press legal charges, I do want to let as many people know about this as possible, so that they can see what kind of man he really is, and keep that in mind when considering whether to do business with him or entrust him with a position of responsibility within their organization. I received a bulk email from him within the last two months indicating that he has opened some sort of online business; I assume that means he takes payment in advance for goods sold online. I have also heard that he has formed some sort of organization to support Ron Pauls Presidential campaign. I don't know whether or not he is soliciting funds in the name of this organization. It is my hope that no more of my friends and comrades waste their time or lose their money to Jim.
In Liberty,
Sandy P. aka Friday
LPNH Treasurer
Note post 183 for info on the aforementioned Jews4RonPaul.
I thought we weren’t supposed to judge Paul by his supporters?
Or is it just the supporters you choose?
Unfortunately, Ron Paul cannot win by being honest..
your sick!
Please get some help...
Good Lord...
If I was on my real PC I’d post the Aw jeez picture again...
If you think African Americans are going to support this white guy over the Democrats nominee, you are seriously in need of therapy.
Found it on my phone...
This actually feeds right into the theory of who the majority of Paul’s supporters are. Anti-war Democrats.
Hmmm, fair point.
My tage line does mention that....(chuckle)
well now that was weird. But not exactly surprised to find out that the major RP supporters are either wackos or muslims.
I wish to offer a serious warning about one of our own. Part of being anti-government must include taking personal responsibility and policing our own communities. I have avoided using other people's names in this post, out of respect for those with whom I did not consult prior to posting this and who may not agree with my decision to do so. But many of them are known to you. I know this post is long, but I encourage you to read through to the end, to have a better understanding of the number of people who have already been hurt and over such a long period of time. My goal is to prevent Jim from doing further harm in our community.You are probably personally acquainted with Jim aka JP, and, like myself, have socialized with him at BBQs, conferences and PorcFest. You may have found him to be pleasant and charming. Unfortunately, I believe that he is completely untrustworthy. Im not just talking about flakiness, either. Im talking about repeated acts of irresponsibility, thoughtlessness, lies, and even theft and fraud.
It is hard to take someone's politics seriously when he is so confused religiously.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/ron-paul-polling-african-americans.htmlOkay it is obvious that Ron Paul has a sizeable lead here but let's look at how the margin of error factors in because we are dealing with a small subgroup. Keep in mind that I do not have the exact sample size of these subgroups so therefore I have to estimate it based on voter turnout in the 2004 election. You can harp on as much as you want as to how that it is flawed to do so; but I have no choice. I rather get some kind of idea as to whether or not this stuff makes sense than do nothing, right?
The 2004 exit polls showed that 11% of voters were African American. That means the Ron Paul vs. Obama/Clinton poll would have had about 132 samples. This has a margin of error of 8.5%.
All of the other polls, having 800 likely voters polled, we estimate there would be 88 samples. Okay, this too has an insane MoE of 10.5%. MoE's find a range in which you have a 95% confidence rating; meaning that we are 95% confident that Ron Paul is polling between 23.5%-40.5% and 95% confident that Giuliani is polling between 5.5%-26.5%.
We could plot a probability density function and detail out the likelihood of a lot of other petty things but it seems kind of cumbersome to do so when we are working with such small samples. In light of these results, however, I would wish that pollsters would take it upon themselves to do a little bit more analysis and polling of African Americans to see what is going on.
One theory that I am suggesting here is that it seems like the less name recognition a Republican candidate has, the better he will poll among African Americans. Bush only had 11% in 2004. Giuliani is polling at 16% then McCain at 20% then Romney at 23.5% and finally Ron Paul at 32%. The contention would be that the less a Republican is known to a black voter, the less they are "against" them.
Are black voters more likely to pick Ron Paul because he is less known? Maybe not! Ron Paul does have some "liberal views" that sets him apart from the Republican field and may help him gain favor among African Americans, such as: being anti-war, against the war on drugs, against the national ID card, believing labor unions have a right to organize, and being against the Patriot Act. You would assume that if a candidate was unknown to a voter that they would just not choose anyways, right?
And to add to that. There was a subsample of African Americans in a New Hampshire primary poll that showed Ron Paul polling in first place among blacks with 22%. The MoE was 18% though!!! (Link).
It is just too bad that pollsters are too cheap to fund an extensive poll on African American voters to see with whom they jive the best because the reality is we feel that Ron Paul really would outperform his Republican counterparts in this demographic.
That is a sign of a serious FR addiction.
You have the “Aw-Jeez, not this shit again” graphic on your blackberry.
Your sick, but cool..
OOPSIE ! ;-D
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