When will the Pope resign?

For many Catholics unhappy about the direction of travel of the Church under Pope Francis, if and when he will resign are perhaps the most asked questions. This is not distasteful or idle court gossip. The Catholic Church is a hierarchical organisation directed in outlook and ideology by its leader, who a small College of Cardinals elect. This doesn’t mean the College can ignore sentiment within the Church, especially in an era when attendance is falling – including in unlikely places – and with the power of social media Catholics have a megaphone. So, it is worth examining not just whether the Pontiff will quit but what the cardinals may do when he does.

Pope Francis has done little to downplay rumours of an early departure. He recently told reporters that he can no longer travel like he once did, and one day may have to quit. Of late, Pope Francis has repeated a phrase – “the door is open” – adding that there was nothing wrong with a Pope stepping down. At the beginning of his papacy, Francis said he would like to see the resignation of popes become normalised, and later said he had a feeling his pontificate would be brief, describing his predecessor’s decision to step down as “courageous”.

Meanwhile, speaking with Reuters, the Pope said he might resign if poor health made it impossible to continue. The Associated Press also reported that Pope Francis said he would not live in the Vatican or return to Argentina if and when he retires, during an interview with TelevisaUnivision. While denying he was planning to retire anytime soon, the Pontiff again said the “the door is open” after Benedict XVI had stepped down. It is also undeniable that Benedict laid the groundwork for Francis to go.

It is Benedict who perhaps offers some clue as to when a resignation may take place. While there is no rule against two former living popes – especially since proposals are being mooted about clearly defining the role of a former pontiff – it may well be that Francis waits until Benedict passes away to finally resign. While Benedict is said to be in good health, at 95 one can assume he will likely pass away within the next few years. This may create the opportunity for Francis should he choose to retire. Later this week, the Pontiff will visit L’Aquila in Italy, the burial place of Pope St. Celestine V. Benedict had once left the woollen pallium he wore during his installation Mass on top of Celestine’s casket, a gesture later interpreted as a sign of his intended resignation (Celestine resigned after five months in 1294).

Then there is the Sixteenth Ordinary General Assembly of the Synod of Bishops – or the Synod on Synodality – which is due to end in October 2023. Pope Francis wants to engage the Church in a series of consultations. The process began in 2021 with local churches and is now in its Continental phase. Although the numbers involved are lower than one would perhaps consider necessary to make the process meaningful, the Synod on Synodality is still considered a centrepiece of the Pope’s agenda. Upon completion, Francis may feel he has cemented a key part of his legacy.

That takes us to early 2024, when Benedict would be into his late nineties. Again, this is not unwarranted speculation. The Pope has dropped hint after hint about resignation. Will signs go on beyond L’Aquila. The creation of a number of new cardinals, for instance, looks like yet more legacy-building, with a consistory to be hosted later this week. There will be 21 new Cardinals, 16 of whom are under the age of 80 and therefore electors in an eventual conclave. There was no need for the consistory to take place now. Even Vatican News called it “a surprise announcement, and almost three months ahead of schedule”, since “Late August is not a traditional time for consistories”.

When coupled with recent statements, there is a strong hint that something could be afoot. The Pope is unlikely to make a move this year, but once the Synod on Synodality is completed he may feel the time is right, especially if Benedict has passed away or looks likely to do so in the near-term. This is not just idle chatter since a new pope would change the direction of the Church, while Francis’s appointments suggest he favours a successor in his image. After late 2023, his legacy secured, serious moves could begin. By then Catholics are likely to have a much clearer picture of whether Francis will actually resign.

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When will the pope resign?