Posted on 06/02/2015 9:42:27 AM PDT by xzins
In a presentation that he acknowledged is “sobering,” Dr. Donald House Sr. warned that The United Methodist Church has only 15 years to reverse its decline in the United States. This week’s presentation from House – a life-long United Methodist and trained economist – came to church leaders at the Connectional Table and General Council on Finance and Administration joint meeting held in Nashville, Tennessee. (See the UM News Service article for additional information.)
“By 2030, the denomination in the United States will either have found a way to turn around, meaning it is growing, or its turnaround in the United States is not possible. By 2050, the connection will have collapsed,” House concluded.
House based his conclusions on a comprehensive study of denominational statistics that included mapping the location of every local church and studying population trends within a 3-mile radius of each congregation. Historical trends dating back to 1974 gave a contextual picture for this study.
Worship attendance at United Methodist churches in the U.S. remained relatively stable from 1974 through 2001, with even a period of sustained growth from 1993 to 2001. Beginning in 2002, however, attendance has shown a straight-line decline for over ten years. “If this were a three-year trend,” said House, “one could chalk it up as an aberration. But you can’t ignore a ten-year pattern.”
“For the last ten years, the U.S. church has lost an average of 52,383 in worship attendance each year,” House reported. Actually, his numbers only ran through 2011. In 2012 the church lost 49,202, but in 2013 the loss caromed to 62,592. In other words, the trend is not getting any better, despite the efforts of the Vital Church Initiative, but may in fact be getting worse.
Along with the loss in attendance, House pointed out that the number of U.S. congregations shrank by 16 percent, the number of conferences by 19 percent, and the number of districts by 21 percent. “What we are doing is disassembling our infrastructure faster than we are experiencing decline in the U.S.,” he said. “If this were a business model, I’d say you were gracefully closing your doors.”
House pointed out that the number of churches per district has gone from 68 in 1990 to 72 in 2010, but is projected to rise to 90 in 2030. That means that each district superintendent’s workload will increase by 25 percent over the next 15 years. This raises the question of whether superintendents can give adequate supervision and leadership to all the clergy and congregations under their responsibility.
In addition, House reported, the church faces a coming shortage of ordained elders. Currently, the rate of decline among elders serving churches has nearly matched the number of churches that are being closed. However, by 2030 House projects that the church will be short by about 2,500 to 5,000 ordained clergy, as the Baby Boomer generation hits full retirement.
House projects that worship attendance that was 3 million in 2010 (down from 3.5 million in 1990) will decline to 2 million in 2030 and under 1 million by 2050. The current 59 annual conferences will reduce to 37 annual conferences in 2030 and only 17 conferences in 2050. Declines in attendance will be matched with declines in giving, which will make the denominational structure financially unsustainable.
One part of the solution is to start new churches. We are currently starting about 300 new churches a year, but the goal is to more than double that to over 700 new churches a year by 2020. Still, 700 new churches a year for four years would only represent a 9 percent increase in congregations, even if no current congregations went out of existence. “You can’t new-church-start your way out of this existing crisis,” House said.
That means a program must be developed to turn around existing congregations with primarily existing clergy. We are only replacing current clergy at the rate of about 750 to 1,000 per year, which means that it will take more than 15 years to replace half of our current clergy. Whatever programs are developed to revitalize existing congregations must be nationally scalable, House said. He is currently developing and testing such a strategy, but it may take another four to eight years before it is ready to implement nationally. Such a timeline would leave only six to ten years to effect the turnaround.
“There is no question that our church is in trouble,” said the Rev. Thomas Lambrecht, vice president of Good News and an observer at the meeting. “What I fail to understand is why church leaders are not considering that the theological shift among many of our clergy in a more progressive direction could account for a significant part of the decline. The Connectional Table reveals a schizophrenic approach when it acknowledges our crisis of decline and at the same time proposes a ‘Third Way’ on marriage and homosexuality that will drive many traditionalists and evangelicals out of the UM Church. If their plan is adopted, it will only accelerate the decline of the U.S. church, as we learn from the experience of The Episcopal, Evangelical Lutheran, and Presbyterian Church (USA).”
The church leaders took no action at their meeting in response to the report. Many leaders feel helpless to do anything about the decline - See more at: http://goodnewsmag.org/2015/05/economist-warns-church-is-in-crisis/#sthash.5kOhAfbs.dpuf
Good.
The UMC has long surrendered their belief in the inerrancy of the Bible. Maybe all their homosexual members and lay leaders will save their church.
How very sad. So many historical and notable people came from this once great and God-fearing church.
This article is correct, but should include the Episcopal, Presbyterian, Lutheran and Congregational churches across the country. They are all spiritually dead and will soon be shuttered.
Like so many organization after them, the UMC succumbed to the pressure of 1% of homosexuals (the Boy Scouts come to mind) and then imploded.
Let their destruction serve as a warning to others.
Let's promote self-indugent policies like "Marriage Equity" (not that we care anything about marriage, except to drag it through the gutter)…
Their belief in inerrancy is still on the books. On the books, they also reject homosexuality. What is happening in the UMC right now is sinister. It is the rebellion against the rules without consequence.
BS
Jesus started with only 12.
If you teach the truth and stop pandering to liberals that hate you and God both, you will start growing.
From what I understand, there are other Methodist groups which still adhere to the Wesleyan doctrines of holiness. I’m hoping that they’ll take in the fleeing biblical UMC members.
Instead, they are actively seeking ways to prevent the Africans from having the right to vote. Sort of the 2/3rds person rules of slaves are now applied to the Africans.
This economist says that if things continue as they are that this denomination is dead in the US in 2050. I agree.
The background hum is from John and Charles Wesley spinning in their graves. :-(
I know of one Episcopal congregation in Dallas were the youngest member is 65!
They are not gaining any membership, so they are basically on their death bed.
Church leadership, the Council of Bishops and others, have known for 30 years that the UMC is declining because it has lost its way theologically. Their commitment to social gospel issues over rides their willingness to make necessary changes. Elders leave the church or are driven out because of their fundamentalist and charismatic beliefs. Kangaroo courts abound in the UMC aimed at purging the denomination of conservatives. While there are a few exceptions this is the rule and it is devastating one of the most important movements in Christianity.
Most Methodist groups have abandoned their teachings on holiness.
Wheat that has fallen among the stones
Haven't you heard the latest? The UMC has voted to capitulate on homosexuality as a sin - completely. They'll now be celebrating it.
I’m sorry to hear that. I thought the Wesleyan group was the last bastion of holiness.
That supposed vote is by a group with no power to do anything except take their vote as a request to the General Conference that meets in May 2016. The General Conference is the ONLY body that can change our rules.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.