Posted on 05/09/2011 12:31:58 PM PDT by Alex Murphy
The Conservatives topped the polls in the May 2 election in part by winning over religious voters, particularly Protestants, but also Jews and longtime immigrants.
The New Democratic Party came in second in part by appealing to those who have no religion, as well as by holding their own among Catholics and recent immigrants.
The Liberals came in third by maintaining support among visible minorities and the moderately religious, especially Muslims but also Jews.
Those are the revealing findings of a massive Ipsos Reid federal election exit poll, which measured the effects of religion, ethnicity and immigrant status on electoral choices.
The online poll of more than 36,000 Canadians, conducted immediately after they cast their ballots, pinpoints changing political preferences that will be crucial for the parties to monitor.
The three major parties appealed to different segments of the country's expanding immigrant and visible minority populations, which are most influential in large cities such as Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto.
The New Democratic Party, which won 30.6 per cent of the popular vote, scored highest among recent immigrants, taking 41 per cent of the vote of newcomers who have been in Canada less than a decade.
But the Conservatives, who seized 39.6 per cent of the overall vote, won 43 per cent of immigrants who have been in the country longer than a decade.
Prior to the election, Immigration Minister Jason Kenney openly campaigned to gain the Conservatives more votes among the religiously active and the roughly one out of five Canadians who were born outside the country.
The Calgary MP's efforts appeared to pay off. In general, the Conservatives did slightly better among those born outside Canada (42 per cent) than those born in Canada (37 per cent).
The NDP was the only one of the three major parties to score higher than their popular vote among those born in Canada, winning 36 per cent of their ballots.
The left-leaning party captured 29 per cent among those born in another country.
The Liberals -who obtained 18.9 per cent of the national vote -did slightly better among foreign-born voters (22 per cent) and slightly poorer among the Canadian-born (15 per cent).
However, the Ipsos Reid poll unveiled a large political gap between immigrants to Canada and the country's visible minority population, which includes Asians, Hispanics and blacks born inside Canada.
The NDP did well among visible minorities, attracting 38 per cent of the ballots of those who are not white.
The Conservatives obtained only 31 per cent of the visible minority vote. The Liberals appealed to 23 per cent.
The large number of Canadians who are spiritually inclined also divided up their vote, based on degrees of religious commitment and whether they are Protestant, Catholic, Jewish or Muslim.
As predicted by earlier polling by Angus Reid Strategies, the Conservatives, led by Stephen Harper, an evangelical Christian, did the best among Protestants (55 per cent) and those who frequently attend a church or temple (50 per cent).
The religiously active did not entirely give up on the two major centre-left parties, however.
The NDP drew one out of four of those Canadians who are most religiously devout, while the Liberals attracted 18 per cent.
The NDP also did well among those who attend church or temple once a month or less (37 per cent). It attracted two out of five Catholic voters, which may reflect the party's breakthrough in Quebec, a province that has deep Catholic roots. The Conservatives attracted 30 per cent of all Canadian Catholics while the Liberals grabbed only 16 per cent.
Even though Jews make up only one per cent of the country's population and Muslims account for about three per cent, their voting patterns reflect contrasting loyalties.
Fifty-two per cent of Canada's Jews voted Conservative, with 24 per cent going Liberal and 16 per cent NDP.
Meanwhile, only 12 per cent of the country's Muslims cast a ballot for the Conservatives, which could reflect the party's position on conflicts involving Israel and Afghanistan.
The Liberals, meanwhile, scored an astonishing 46 per cent of the country's Muslim vote, while the NDP took 38 per cent.
Even though the Conservatives scored reasonably well among the roughly three out of four Canadians who say they have a "religious identity" (42 per cent), the party was weak among those who have no religion.
The country's growing non-religious cohort went strongly to the NDP (42 per cent). The Conservatives managed to pick up 27 per cent of this growing cohort, with the Liberals at 17 per cent.
Ipsos Reid official Sean Simpson said the election-day poll is the largest done in Canada.
Think "tortoise and the hare". Ferrari owners can brag about the max horsepower and speed of a Ferrari all they want. Unless they take that Ferrari out of the garage and prove it, it's just another episode of Seinfeld being played out.
"I choose not to run!"
Alex Murphy: Unless they take that Ferrari out of the garage and prove it, it’s just another episode of Seinfeld being played out——END
In order to prove it, only Catholics can do it. Unfortunately, practically all Catholics say the same thing, they want someone else to prove it (”it” being:do things God’s way and the world will change).
It has however been done for brief periods in history. It was done in Portugal from the late 1920’s till the late 1950’s, under Salazar. Portugal totally avoided the Spanish Civil War, and was spared from WWII. The people then started to go away from God, and were right back in the same cage as the rest of Europe.
The NDP made huge gains among the Catholic vote in Quebec by promising near sovereignty. This is very key in Quebec, after the federal government forced the takeover of Catholic institutions in the 1960s and 1970s. Unfortunately, the NDP also demands gay marriage and abortion. Worse, I believe that the NDP is simply doing what Communists always do: promising the moon to the slighted. Still, it wouldn’t kill the Conservatives to learn how to appeal to the Quebecois.
I disagree with Buccaneer to the extent that Quebecois are less Catholic than even France. The Anglophone Montrealers certainly never were Catholic, and they are in numbers that surprised me (almost half of Montreal). But Quebec City and the Eastern townships are Catholic.
To answer Alex’s specific questions, most liberal Catholics in any nation no longer attend church, so it’s not a matter of being denied communion. Really, how strange is it that the issue even exists that people are saying, “We’re Catholic, we just don’t believe in Catholic values,” and the bishops are saying, “No, you’re not!”
Alex, have you ever heard of a Protestant denomination refusing communion to anyone?
But yes, in fact, the Catholic NDP guy from Quebec prior to the last election was actually denied communion. We’ll see how many are this time.
Don’t forget, there’s a sizable English minority in the Eastern Townships. I also knew a couple of guys at university from Shawinigin who were as Anglo as they come. Shawinigan is one third English.
Not a chance of that happening in some Protestant churches. I've been to services where, on the way in, there's a table where you pick up two plastic containers of the type Chinese take out places use for soy sauce; one with a wafer, the other with grape juice. Then you hang on to them for an hour until it's time to "serve yourself."
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