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I know that Wikipedia is not the best source for information, but the article on Fatima there describes the controversy over the Third Secret:

Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI) said in November 1984 that the Secret would cause "sensationalism" and dealt with the "end times." This comment could not be understood if the Secret referred to the assassination attempt in 1981.[13]

On November 11, 1984, as reported in the Pauline Catholic magazine Jesus, Cardinal Ratzinger stated that he had "read the text of the Third Secret." When asked why he had not revealed it, he replied that "in the judgment of previous Popes, it adds nothing to what Christians must know respecting what is stated in the Book of Revelation."

This followed the report in the October 1981 issue of the German Catholic magazine Stimme des Glaubens of a discussion at Fulda in November 1980 when Pope John Paul II had stated to a select group of German Catholics, in response to the question why he had not revealed the Third Secret of Fatima, "If you read that the oceans will inundate continents, and millions of people will die suddenly in a few minutes, once this is known, then in reality it is not necessary to insist on the publication of this Secret."

However, in another interview, Pope John Paul II indicated that the entire secret of Fatima could be summarized in the idea that prayer, especially the Rosary, is the remedy against all manner of evil.

I'm not Catholic, but I rather think there may be more to the story.

The fact is that Lucia Santos claims to have had three communications with Our Lady: the first was a vision, the second was a verbal communication and the third was another vision.

Lucia Santos, at the prompting of the local bishop, wrote down the content of the three communications.

The third one - or "Third Secret" - is her description of what she, a 36 year old woman, saw as a ten year old girl.

Because a man dressed as the Pope is grievously injured in the vision, John Paul II and many others took this to mean the attempt on the his life.

I believe her claims to be true and I consider this assessment of the third communication to be a convincing one, but obviously a visual tableau described at second hand is liable to numerous interpretations.

I would also point out that the word "secret" in English has very different connotations than the word "segredo" in Portuguese (Lucia Santos' native tongue) or the Latin word "secretum" - a Latin word she would only have known in its specific pre-Novus Ordo liturgical context.