Interesting article, although I'd be really, really surprised if Ratzinger got it. As for the others, I'm not sure being a close friend of a current pope necessarily means one is going to be considered to take his place.
The person I'd like to see as the next Pope is the Cardinal Archbishop of Madrid, Antonio Ruoco. But, alas, I never even see his name appear in the "papabile" speculations, so I think chances are pretty slim. Make that nonexistent.
John Paul II, and if I remember what I've read correctly, John XXIII never appeared on anyone's papabile lists.
There is some tension: Some would like a short-termer, cince this Pope has carried on so long; but that would mean an elderly Pope, and others are hoping for someone who would not be soon infirmed.