[wagglebee]

I agree with you on Arinze.
On the one hand, I wouldn't be surprised by a complete unknown (who would without a doubt be from Africa, Asia or South America), but I also think there is a large and powerful group within the Church hierarchy who would prefer a "tried and true" traditional pope.

[livius]

a large and powerful group within the Church hierarchy who would prefer a "tried and true" traditional pope

I hope so! But I doubt that we will know for some time. I don't think JPII is going anywhere. I'm not quite sure how much in charge he is anymore - mainly because he was never a strong administrator to begin with, so it's hard to say if anything has changed - but as long as he is alive, he'll be Pope. And with modern medicine, that could be a long time.