Texas Redistricting map now online(link is in thread)

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/ ^ | 10/09/03 | Texas GOP

[Diddle E. Squat]

Go here:

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

The proposed map is the last one listed: Proposed Congressional Districts - HB3 CCR 10-09-03, plan C01374

Current districts are the third option: US Congressional Districts, 108th Congres, plan C01151

[JohnnyZ]

Thanks Goldie, that's a decent explanation.

I want a chart with districts and voting #s, % of district familiar with incumbent, incumbent performance in that %.

That's not a demand, or even a request, I'm just saying.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I want a chart with districts and voting #s, % of district familiar with incumbent, incumbent performance in that %."

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If you click on the link I included in post #18, you can click on Population & Elections and find Republican performance for 2000 and 2002 for each CD, as well as percentage of the district pop that is black, Hispanic or Anglo. Clicking on Population Analysis allows you to compare demographic data as well as 2002 Republican performance between the new CDs and the old ones. Unfortunately, the site does not include info on what percentage of the CD was in whose old CD, so I can't tell you how many of the voters in the 19th and 11th CDs would be new to Stenholm, or how well Edwards did among the voters in the new 31st CD. But aside from Ralph Hall, I don't see any Anglo Democrats surviving except for maybe Stenholm (although maybe Green will be able to win again in his Hispanic-majority district, which would be fine with me since he's fairly moderate for an urban Democrat, and since it may convince some more Houston Hispanics to join the GOP).

[Dog Gone]

I haven't been able to find an analysis of it yet in any depth, either. But I can see what it did to the current districts.

It has created a new district in Houston, which is likely to elect a black Democrat. We'll another Sheila Jackson-Lee in Houston now. The current Rat congressman, Chris Bell, is a newbie and I don't think he even lives within the new district outline. He's probably toast, although there is a chance he could survive.

Another new district which will be undoubtedly represented by a Rat hispanic from the Rio Grande Valley has been created. It stretches into Austin. However, it takes in part of Lloyd Doggett's district, another white liberal. He's definitely going to be toast.

In fact, it's obvious from the district outlines that Austin, the center of Texas liberalism, has been dissected in numerous ways. Some of it has been thrown into the conservative suburbs of Houston. Henry Bonilla, the Republican congressman from San Antonio in a shaky district, has been given a more solid district.

In rural Texas, the home of the Yellow Dog Democrats, the moderately conservative whites who have voted the Rat ticket for years, the lines have been rearranged to toss out every single white Yellow Dog congressman. Every one should be defeated by a Republican. The only exception to that might be Charlie Stenholm, who remains popular in west Texas. He'll be paired against the GOP congressman from Lubbock, although he'll be at a slight disadvantage.

The pattern was repeated in Dallas, where the senior Texas Rat, Martin Frost, was put into a completely unwinnable district for him. He'll go ballistic. We could pick up seven seats, and certainly no less than four.

This is a far more aggressive map than I expected from the legislature. I don't think most people, even at this forum, appreciate what a huge swing of votes in the House this would represent.

Assuming it's passed, and survives the challenges, we can probably be confident that the US House of Reps will remain Republican for the rest of our lives.

Incidentally, Ron Paul is 68 years old. He won't be running from this district forever. It's something to definitely think about...

[Not A Democrat]

I dislike gerrymandering. I don't like seeing snake-like districts such as those connecting Austin and Houston, Granbury and College Station, and Amarillo and Mineral Wells. I think we've beaten the Democrats at their own game, if we can get this through the courts.

However, I dislike the Democrat party even more. If I have to choose between districts that make geographic sense, and districts that favor conservatives, I'll take conservative districts every time.

If this is what it takes to get rid of people such as Martin Frost and Chet Edwards, then so be it. I'll take it any day of the week.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Incidentally, Ron Paul is 68 years old. He won't be running from this district forever. It's something to definitely think about..."

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Dog Gone, there's no time like the present. While Ron Paul has money to burn from his national network of radical Libertarians, gold bugs and assorted wackos, he has cast so many unpopular votes that a primary candidate who merely informs the Republicans in the district what Paul has been up to has an excellent chance of winning. The district as redrawn includes more of Brazoria County, which Paul represented in Congress in the late 70s and early 80s, but I don't think that Paul really connects all that much with his constituents. He votes based solely on his libertarian principles, which is fine and dandy except that he ends up voting against things like school vouchers and aid to families of soldiers killed in action and stuff like that. So I say go for it. If you unseat him, you'll have a safe seat for years.

[JohnnyZ]

But aside from Ralph Hall

THANK GOODNESS!!! Those maps including him as a target were asinine.

[nospinzone]

I thought Ralph Hall was about to retire, or is he indeed running for another term?

[JohnnyZ]

I thought Ralph Hall was about to retire, or is he indeed running for another term?

Yes on the first count ("was"), maybe/probably on the second count, last I heard.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"But aside from Ralph Hall"

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Don't quote me on that one, but I think Hall can win the redrawn 4th CD, which combine's Hall's base with a lot of turf in Sandlin's old 1st CD. Sandlin would most likely run in the new 1st, which leans strongly Republican but not as much as the redrawn 4th. We should convince Hall to run as a Republican in 2004 and clear the field for him, and then he can leave the seat to his son (who is a Republican).

BTW, I told you to click on Population Analysis, but that was incorrect (the Pop Analysis table ain't worth diddly). You should click on Population & Elections for 2000 and 2002 performance in each of the redrawn districts and click on Plan Comparison for comparisons between the old districts and the redrawn ones.

[goldstategop]

I think it was resolved when Tom DeLay came to Austin to knock heads together and read the State Republican leadership the riot act. His reaction must have been like, "Lawd, do we have to be the Stupid Old Party and do for the Democrats what they couldn't do when they tried to shortshop this whole business with a series of fugitive escapades to neighboring states??" That shamed them and they finally got their act together. Consider it a form of affirmative action for black and Hispanic Democrats in Texas. Which has got to grate on the white Democrats who are suddenly in danger of becoming extinct. I love the irony of the Democrats being hoist upon their own "race card!"

[Dog Gone]

Paul's district deserves a Representative who isn't demanding that the US issue Letters of Marque and Reprisal against foreign terrorists instead of supporting the use of the 4th Infantry Division. We're not living in 1805 anymore.

I would love to represent the 14th congressional district. I have a rural home (nothing to be proud of) in the same district, as well as my main residence in suburban Houston. But I haven't laid any groundwork for a run yet at all. Other than being a consistent financial contributor to the local party, I'm an unknown. My bad.

If I run against Paul next year, I will be underfunded and certainly defeated. However, in 2006, I might stand a far better chance by having done so. Hmmmmm.....

[Diddle E. Squat]

Dogs were born to run...

[WOSG]

Dog Gone,

I have done the homework on the map ... this map is our best dream and the Democrats nightmare. If the rant and wail I wouldnt be surprised.

I am a Travis county republican. I am seriously considering running for the 10th district. I can put some local connections and quite a bit of my own financial resources to use here, and I've spoken to my wife (v. important!).

Will I get a Freeper "bump" if I toss my hat in the ring?
Are there any Houstonites jumping into this?

Can you give me some 'lay of the land' wrt Houston and the part that is in the 10th district?

[potlatch]

Ping.

[WOSG]

Not bad at all. A very good map for republicans. I am considering running in the 10th district.

[CindyDawg]

I'm still in Shelia Jackson Lee's

Maybe we should rotate them and give yall a break. NAH!

[CindyDawg]

Where is the map? All I see are 4 plans?

[Dog Gone]

The greater Houston portion of the 10th district is a GOP stronghold. I haven't zoomed down to the street level on it yet, but I know most of the neighborhoods.

It includes upscale neighborhoods, and is mostly upper middle class. I don't think much is actually within the city limits of Houston (and don't want to be), and it becomes rural, but still conservative, in the western portions of Harris County.

There might be a couple of rough parts of town along Highway 290 within the 10th, but I'm guessing that the GOP owns the greater Houston part of that district by a 60-40 margin or better. The 10th district is a GOP lock.

[No Truce With Kings]

"I've been moved from Tom DeLay's district into Ron Paul's. I like DeLay far better, so now I think I'll challenge Paul in the primary. I'm tired of my current job."

Dog Gone:

Look's like my corner of League City is in 14, too. Want a Galveston Co. campaign chair? Be glad to help if you run. I helped Pete Sessions during his first two runs -- the one he lost in '94 and the one he won in '96. He can be a reference.

Not that I dislike Paul, but he *is* crowding 70.

[WOSG]

Dog Gone, thanks! the ORVS is rated as 63% or so.
So yes it is a safe seat, the only curve ball is Lloyd Doggett has $2 million in a bankroll, and he might want to roll the dice with it. No matter, I've followed him enough I could take him on and win easily, as long as it is an R and not a D district. he is a partisan liberal.

So now my question is what sort of Republican field to expect?
Are there any particular leaders in the GOP in those parts (near Katy) as distinct from Harris co GOP?