The Recall Percentages Are Wrong! (3.5% Did Not Vote on Part 2)

self | self

[zencycler]

The percentages being reported in the media on the California Secretary of State's webiste for the recall have been:

Arnold..48.5%
Cruz....31.8%
Tom.....13.4%
etc...

But these percentages are based on the total people voting in part 2 of 7,623,300 (I saved the Sec Of State's website as a text file, opened it in excel, and totalled the votes of all candidates).

However, this doesn't portray what actually happened. If you add up the votes on the recall (part 1), 7,898,606 votes stepped into voting booths yesterday, and by subtraction, 275,306, or 3.5% of them, did not vote on part 2. If you take the vote counts and divide them by the number of people who voted on part 1, you get the following:

Arnold..46.8%
Cruz....30.7%
Tom.....12.8%
No Vote..3.5%

Interesting to note that No Vote on part 2 beats out all the other "candidates".

[So Cal Rocket]

And if "No Vote" had been the preference of more than 50% of the voters, guess what....

















... Arnie would still be Governor.

[harpu]

Thanks...but who gives a sh#t!

[smokinleroy]

WOW!!! THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING!!!

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[CMAC51]

I hope you don't do your own taxes.

[Incorrigible]

[zencycler]

And if "No Vote" had been the preference of more than 50% of the voters, guess what....Arnie would still be Governor.

Correct, but that wasn't the point of my post. I'm glad he's governor. I'm also glad that "No Vote" did better than Arianna and all the other idiots who were running. But mostly I like pointing out the fact that the media just takes statistics that are handed to them and doesn't do their own analysis these days.

[zencycler]

I hope you don't do your own taxes.

Actually, so I do other people's taxes in addition to my own. But what does that have to do with it. If there's an error in my analysis, than point it out.

[MEG33]

With 99.8% in..Arnold has about 140,000 votes more than the no votes in part 1.Their percentages are based separately on totals in each question not just totals in the first question.

[So Cal Rocket]

Well, to take it to an extreme... Assuming 35M people live in California, Arnold got less than 11%.

[zencycler]

Their percentages are based separately on totals in each question not just totals in the first question.

Correct, the percentages in the second question are based on the number of people who voted on that question. But nobody has calculated how many people didn't bother to vote on the second question, or how the percentages on the second question would reflect the number of people who voted that day.

[MEG33]

It is always so in every election.There's total population, eligible voters,registered voters ,and actual voters.

[So Cal Rocket]

I know... it was just my way of trying to show the absurdity of the original poster's analysis.

[Ditto]

If you add up the votes on the recall (part 1), 7,898,606 votes stepped into voting booths yesterday, and by subtraction, 275,306, or 3.5% of them, did not vote on part 2.

Isn't that what the Clinton's, Terry McAuffule and Babs Boxer told people to do? --- Vote No on Recall and skip the rest? And only 3.5% followed the instructions from their Grand Wizards? Wow!

[zencycler]

The fact that many people don't vote isn't news.

The fact that 3.5% of the persons voting yesterday didn't bother to vote on part 2, may be.

Maybe I didn't make that clear in my post, as people here seem to think that I'm trying to bring down Arnold's nubmers. That's wasn't the point.

[MEG33]

The point was made over and over,they are separate.The point the dem pundits were pushing was ,Will he get as many votes for him as voted no on recall...to give him"legitimacy".He did,he does.Game, set, match!

[zencycler]

Isn't that what the Clinton's, Terry McAuffule and Babs Boxer told people to do? --- Vote No on Recall and skip the rest? And only 3.5% followed the instructions from their Grand Wizards? Wow!

Interest, and thank you. I'm getting flamed here cause folks think that I'm trying to detract from Arnold's numbers (which I'm not). Seems like many don't have an appreciation for statistical analysis of the vote count, what interpretations may be made when you look at the real numbers. I like your point, I hadn't thought about that.

[Reeses]

A few people voted on part 2 but forgot to vote part 1. I doubt any of the reverse is true. So the people who voted "None of the above" might have really been 4 percent of all voters, with .5% of the yes on recall voters forgetting the part 1. The 4 percent are probably hard core Democrats who can't stand Bustamante.

[Tempest]

"Vote No on Recall and skip the rest? And only 3.5% followed the instructions from their Grand Wizards? Wow!"

So what that tells me that 3.5% of them are serious die-hard, Kool-aid drinking libs that can't think for themselves.