Poll: Schwarzenegger Gaining; Recall Strong as October 7 Election Nears

Business Wire ^ | October 05, 2003 09:00 AM US Eastern

[jmstein7]

No weakened enthusiasm

[socal_parrot]

This will fly in the face of the Dem's internal poll that was leaked to the Sac Bee's Dan Weintraub yesterday. That poll had Arnold plummeting and yes and no on recall within the margin of error.


Good.

[Uncle Hal]

Bye, Bye, Gray. Can you say Governor Scharzenegger? You may be able to say it, but you sure as hell will not be able to spell it.

[Texican]

Congressman:
My friend your check in the mail and you should have it by Tuesday. It is not much, but seeing that I am in California it is all that I can do at this time. The very best of luck to you in your campaign.
All good FReepers should send a few dollars to both our own Free Republic and to Congressman Billybob. If you do not know, the Cyber Congressman is really running for the Congress of the United States.

The very best to you and yours.

Semper Fi
Tommie

[Brandon]

Since you asked .....

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., who has been one of Clinton's most outspoken critics since he admitted to lying about his sexual encounters with Lewinsky, said on Meet the Press that drawing out the matter only would serve to "diminish the office of the presidency." She also said it was "just plain wrong" of the House Judiciary Committee to release thousands of pages of sexually explicit materials.

"I think the American public understands what's going on, and I think the American public is saying very clearly, `We've had enough of this.' "

Feinstein, who had said she was "shattered" by Clinton's behavior, said that most Americans have concluded -- after having read the Starr report and having seen Clinton give his grand jury testimony -- that "lying about sex" is not an impeachable offense.

-- Houston Chronicle, 9/27/98

http://www.chron.com/cgi-bin/auth/story.mpl/content/chronicle/nation/98/09/28/talkshows.2-0.html

So she gets a quarter point for being "shattered" about the Lewinsky revelation, but loses the rest for, essentially, thinking the whole thing should have been swept under the rug in order to keept from "damaging the presidency".

[ambrose]

bump

[Jorge]

GOP candidate Tom McClintock was selected by 13 percent of the respondents.

But he can still win.
GO TOM GO! :)

[af_vet_1981]

Crush the Democrats !

[FairOpinion]

"In the most recent poll, Schwarzenegger was favored by 43 percent of the respondents. His support increased among Republicans from 62 to 72 percent, while maintaining support from 20 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Independents. "

===

Glad to see that Republicans are coming home to the Republican Party and are uniting against the REAL enemy: DAvis/Bustamante.

Can we please have more Republicans and independents for Arnold? We need every vote to defeat the Davis Dem machinery, who are pulling out all the stops to retain control of California.

[ALOHA RONNIE]

'JOIN ARNOLD = STOP HILLARY'

http://www.TheAlamoFILM.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=28992

[GoldwaterBooster]

This is a friend of Congressman Billybob but since he does not know me by the handle below, I will send him a separate email to tell him my real name. Here is my Sunday afternoon Oct. 5 analysis of recall.

There is no net change in the outcomes of the recall election due to groping and Hitler comment stories of Oct. 2 and 3. If there is a National Enquirer "love child" story, Arnold might have enough votes left over to win the governor's race in Louisiana too. Is there any bar to serving as governor of two states? Just kidding.

Unfortunately for Davis, the turnout will be large--over 8.5 million votes cast for governor. Almost 24 percent of the votes were cast as absentee ballots BEFORE the LA Times late hit of Oct. 2. Those ballots are running heavy for Yes on Part I of the ballot and heavy for Arnold Swhwarzenegger on Part II. Almost one million votes were cast in the week after the reversal of the 9th Circuit and the debate and before the LA Times attack story. That was a very good week for Arnold.

I estimate that of the remaining 6 million votes to be cast on Tuesday, Davis would have to get more than 52 percent of those voting to vote NO on Part I in order to survive and overcome the absentee ballot margins for the recall. He is nowhere near 45 percent let alone 52 percent on no votes.

Even the Oct. 4 Knight- Ridder/NBC poll showed him with 42 percent of votes for the NO position. Half of the headlines on Google News spin that same poll as either "Davis Gaining" or as "Davis Still Trailing" depending on who is writing the headline Amazing.

The dynamics of voting have NOT changed except on the small margins by the groping and Hitler comment stories of the last four days. Yes votes still lead on the recall by at least 54 percent. Davis cannot get to 50 percent plus one vote to defeat Part I of the recall ballot unless Arnold publicly shoots up a grammar school and a nursing home between now and the 10 PM News tomorrow night.

On Part II, Bustamante has an even steeper climb to overcome low margins in the absentee ballots already cast. All Arnold needs is a simple plurality of ONE VOTE MORE than Bustamante to win. As things now stand, on the very low side Arnold will have a comfortable half-million vote lead over Bustamante assuming a turnout of 8.5 million votes cast.

[The Westerner]

How did you obtain the absentee counts?

[rocklobster11]

The absentee counts are estimated based on the Knight Ridder/NBC poll. 24% said they had already voted.

[68 grunt]

Did you notice JJ scoot to his left to get into the camera better? Weasel!

[LongsforReagan]

Arnie should get it on with Diane when he takes office. He should grope her.

[Southack]

"This will fly in the face of the Dem's internal poll that was leaked to the Sac Bee's Dan Weintraub yesterday. That poll had Arnold plummeting and yes and no on recall within the margin of error."

That was just a "talking point." Their internal poll had the recall at 56% support with a 5% margin for error, thus they were claiming that basically the recall was a statistical dead heat even though anyone who knows anything about polls knows that you can't make that claim from that evidence (56% support versus 40% against and 4% undecided with a 5% margin for error means that even the Dems' internal poll is telling them that old Gray Davis had better finish making his political appointments and start shredding his quid pro quo campaign contribution documents en masse, post haste).

[GoldwaterBooster]

As Rocklobster11 said, I took the 24 percent from the Knight Ridder poll and then applied an average of all the public polls published in the last 9 days to come up with a percentage to apply to the number of absentee ballots already cast.

The vote should be much more than 2002 but still less than the presidential election of 2000. Some of my analysis is an educated guess within a range of estimates but I still cannot see anyway Davis gets to 50 percent plus one for no votes on Part I and there is no way Arnold drops below Bustamante. A margin of one-half million votes is very conservative in my opinion.

[WOSG]

"And showed Davis with the Rev. Jesse Jackson (or a look-alike) standing right behind him."

I hope anyone who campaigns with that race hustler is booed off the political stage pronto.

This may be a good thing, to have all these 'big guns' come out to the Cali that Clinton won big in '96 and watch it go down in flames. ... great way to bracket the Clinton error, i mean, clinton era.

[The Westerner]

Ok. Now I'm hoping that Arnold will reverse some of the damage Grayout is going to do between the time he loses and gets out of Sacramento. Bush disappointed us by not reversing some of the last minute stuff that Clinton did.

[rocklobster11]

They still haven't thrown the "Arnold guilty of statutory rape" story out yet, so I assume that will be the one they release tomorrow afternoon.