McClintock Can't Win? Do the Math Again

From Perspicacity & Paradigms Online (www.perspicacityonline.com) Posted Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2003 By Rand Green P&P Editor & Publisher

OVERWHELMINGLY, Republicans who plan on voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger in the California gubernatorial election on October 7 justify their choice by saying that they would rather see Tom McClintock be governor but they just don’t believe Tom can win.

You hear it over and over again. On talk radio. In letters to the editor. On network interviews. In emails. In conversations around the water fountain at work or on the golf course or at Chamber of Commerce meetings or at church. The sentiment is seemingly ubiquitous. “We’re tired of losing. Sure, Arnold’s a social liberal, but he’s a fiscal conservative, and we’d rather have 75 percent of something than 100 percent of nothing. McClintock can’t win, and if he splits the Republican vote, it will assure a Bustamante victory.”

I do not believe I have heard a single Republican supporter of Mr. Scharzenegger declare that he is the best qualified candidate or the preferred choice; only that he is the most electable. Many Republican leaders, in endorsing Arnold, have said if the balance tipped and it appeared that Tom could win, they would eagerly support him. But that will never happen, they say. “This is, after all, California, and California is a Democratic state. The majority of Californians are social liberals, and even though we wish it were otherwise, a true conservative has no chance of winning. Do the math.”

The “math” they talk about is simple -- or, more accurately, simplistic: A week out from the election, Arnold Schwarzenegger was holding a two to one lead over Tom McClintock in the polls (40 percent to 18 percent), and Tom was trailing Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante. Therefore, they conclude, Tom lacks the support to beat Cruz, and Arnold is the Republican party’s only hope.

You know, ordinarily it’s the liberal media and the liberal Democrats that I frequently suggest need to take a class in remedial math. Now, I have to suggest that the California Republican leadership needs to do the same thing.

I’m not about to get on their case in this article for not voting their convictions, for not standing by their principles. It may well be time to preach to the choir, but I’ll do that in another piece. For the moment, I’d just like to set the record straight on the math.

Ever hear of self-fulfilling prophecy? Yeah. Well, that is exactly what is happening with the California Republican leadership’s support of Schwarzenegger. Convinced that the only kind of Republican that can win state-wide office in California is one who has broad appeal to social liberals, they have nobly sacrificed their own personal preference in the interest of what they deem the greater good.

Rather than throwing their wholehearted support behind a candidate of Tom McClintock’s caliber, integrity and conviction, rather than seizing an opportune moment to explain to Californians that liberalism is a flawed concept and is at the root of the state’s problems, rather than pointing out that the left has misrepresented conservatism and that only a conservative agenda will bring greater prosperity, freedom and opportunity for all, California’s Republican leaders have basically thrown in the towel and acknowledged tacit defeat. Better to settle for a liberal (or a moderate if you insist) with an R after his name than to wind up with nothing.

Not only have the leaders of the California Republican party almost unanimously thrown their support behind Arnold (although nearly one-third of the rank-and-file stand firmly behind Tom), but they have urged -- no, they have pressured Tom’s supporters to hold their noses at the ballot box and vote contrary to the dictates of their conscience. Misery loves company.

If every Republican voter in California who believes that Tom McClintock would be the best choice for governor -- if only he could win -- would vote for Tom McClintock, he would win by a landslide.

If every Republican leader in the state, every conservative organization, and every conservative talk show host who has supported Arnold Schwarzenneger had instead endorsed the candidate they’d really like to see win, if only he could, their influence would have assured a victory for Tom McClintock.

Instead, they are talking themselves blue in the face, sometimes with angry tones in their voices, lambasting McClintock supporters for standing stubbornly by their principles and “splitting the Republican vote.” It is a squandering of energy that would better be invested in extolling the virtues of conservatism and exposing the liberal myth. And it is disingenuous. Here’s why:

The fact is, McClintock supporters are not splitting the Republican vote. If anything, it is the other way around. After all, Tom McClintock was in the race first. But more to the point, if Arnold had not jumped in, who would these Republican leaders and conservative organizations be backing? If they really, honestly believe that Arnold is the only candidate with enough public appeal to win, why did they back the recall in the first place? If they were convinced that Tom McClintock or Darrel Issa or Bill Simon didn’t have a chance against any of the likely Democratic contenders, what did they think to gain by ousting Governor Davis?

Or did they have foreknowledge of a Schwarzenegger candidacy even before the Steroid Wonder had made his decision to run?

With Bustamante at 25 percent and sliding, and McClintock at 18 percent and climbing, McClintock is only seven points back from beating Bustamante, and the gap is closing. Schwarzenegger supporters rant about how McClintock needs to drop out to assure a Republican victory, but nobody seems to be asking what would happen if Schwarzenegger pulled out of the race. A CNN poll actually posed that question, but apparently nobody in the new media liked the answer, because it never got reported!

According to the CNN poll, if Schwarzeneger were to drop out of the race, McClintock would beat Bustamante by 56 percent to 37 percent! The idea that Tom McClintock could not win is nonsense. The idea that a principled conservative cannot win in California is absurd. If Tom McClintock is not elected governor on October 7, it will not be because he is unelectable. It will not be because a social and fiscal liberal named Arnold Schwarzenegger -- who calls himself a Republican and who, by pretending to be a social moderate and a fiscal conservative, is pulling off the most successful acting roll of his career -- is the only R who can win. It will be because of self-fulfilling prophecy on the part of party leaders with a “we’re sick and tired of losing” mentality.

Here are some more highly relevant numbers. Senator McClintock has name recognition in California of 96 percent. Over 60 percent of California voters - and not just Republicans -- have a favorable impression of him, and only 20 percent have a negative opinion.

Given that Tom McClintock needs to gain only seven points to close the gap with Lt. Gov. Bustamante, and that the vast majority of those who say they’ll vote for Schwarzenegger would gladly tip to Tom if they thought he could win, it would only take a few key Republican leaders, even at this late date, to break ranks and call for their constituents to support McClintock, and people would quickly see that a McClintock victory is indeed possible. Once that possibility became apparent, Republican voters would run in droves to the other end of the teeter-totter.

Or maybe they don’t. Maybe the voters of California will figure this out for themselves and vote their conscience, notwithstanding the endorsements of party leadership in favor of a candidate who is not their first choice. If that should happen, there are going to be a lot of high-profile Republicans in the state feeling more than a little chagrinned.

But what about this vote-split concern? What if some Arnold supporters switch to Tom but not in large enough numbers to give Tom the victory? Will not that vote splitting assure a Bustamante victory as so many Arnold supporters contend?

Not at all -- not unless, in the next few days, Bustamante makes a huge surge in the polls, which is unlikely as his popularity has been going steadily down, not up.

Currently the polls show: Schwarzenegger, 40 percent. Bustamante, 25 percent. McClintock, 18 percent. Now follow me. Forty plus 18 equals 58. Combined, the Republican candidates beat Bustamante by well over two to one.

Suppose McClintock comes within one point of overtaking Bustamante but can’t quite pull over the top. We can assume that any McClintock gains are likely to come from Schwarzenegger voters, not Bustamante voters. So that would put McClintock at 24 percent, Bustamante at 25 percent, and Schwarzenegger at 34 percent, still the victor by a whopping nine point margin.

If McClintock gains eight points, enough to put him ahead of Bustamante by a point, that still leaves Schwarzenegger with 32 percent of the vote and an impressive seven point margin of victory.

Think what a well-deserved embarrassment that would be for the Democrats to have not one but two Republican candidates get more votes than the lieutenant governor.

You see, unless something happens to give Bustamante a tremendous boost, McClintock can’t possibly be a spoiler. So no one who in their heart of hearts would really rather cast a vote for McClintock than for Schwarzenegger needs to worry about being the cause of a Republican defeat if they vote their conscience. Arnold backers should just lay off the guilt trip, because it is without basis.

Maybe what some of those who say a principled conservative can’t win in California are really afraid of is not that McClintock supporters might split the ticket and cause Republicans to lose but that Tom might actually gain enough momentum to win, thus proving their pessimism unfounded. Maybe that’s why they are digging in and turning the turrets on their brethren instead of taking the battle to the foe.

If all voters in California would vote their conscience, their principles, their head and their heart and not allow themselves to be intimidated, the numbers show that Tom McClintock would be California's next governor and the myth that that no principled conservative can win statewide office in the Golden State would be forever dispelled.

As Shakespeare wrote, and as Tom McClintock has recently quoted: “There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life are spent in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”

From Perspicacity & Paradigms (www.perspicacityonline.com). Copyright (c) 2003 by Rand Green Communications. Note: You may make coies of this article for free distribution, distribute it by email, or post it to the internet, if you do so in its entirety, complete with all credits and this copyright notice.

If what you say is true, the clintons would be stumping for Arnold (or at a minimum, remaining neutral on the topic of Arnold), not trying, as they are, to bury him. And they are risking humiliation to do so--not an easy move for the megalomaniac...

The CA election must be very important to the clintons. Indeed, clinton said so himself ("This recall is w-a-a-aay bigger than Gray Davis," he announced during his last visit.)

You and McClintock appear to suffer from the same political rigidity and narrow perspective. Try to think out of the box. Your values... or McClintock's... or mine... will be meaningless if we are all blown to smithereens. Get rational.

Poor you... remember ol' Brer Rabbit... "Please don't throw me in that there briar patch... Please don't throw out my good buddy, Gray, and elect Teddy NoPants's nephew-in-law... Please keep me out of that briar patch, brer Wolf." I don't claim to have personal knowledge of such antics, but it would hardly surprise me... and, IF RINOld is elected, watch who is invited to his inauguration party very carefully indeed. Though it will all be in the name of "bi-partisanship," to be sure!

And I am truly sorry for you if my having values or Tom having principles makes you so uncomfortable. It must be sad to be you.

Survival? With the liberal agenda fully in place, thanks to you and yours, SURVIVE is what we would barely be able to do... I am voting for FREEDOM and LIVING, not mere SURVIVAL. As I said, I pity you and yours but I wish you the "survival" you seek under the liberals' agenda. If you and your oh-so principle-less WINNERS manage to get RINOld elected Tuesday, I predict that scores of thousands like me will decide that we can no longer LIVE in California and will leave it to you Survivors, for as long as you can keep it. Predictably, not very long, as every liberal pubbie will come crawling out from under their rocks after you and yours open the door for them. Then what? Will you have to keep "compromising" to keep an "electable" (R) somewhere in office, no matter HOW Left he or she is????? Will there EVER come a time for YOU to vote for your principles or will you always be a pragmatic "winner" with no soul left? "Surviving" on the handouts of the Left and always bending the knee (or worse), kissing the hand that slaps you silly...

**For SHAME... calling RINOld supporters DUMB... It's true, but you are shameful! **

Actually, Saundra Duffy called those who support Schwarzenegger, DUMB. A few of us made light of her ignorant opinion.

I surely won't do that... I cannot attibute it to principle or values... or words like FREEDOM, LIBERTY and LIMITED GOVERNMENT. Can't attribute your RINOld vote to them, so I won't make assumptions. However, perhaps you should read my posts 271 and 284... It must be sad to be you and have nothing to stand for, which means you'll fall for anything.

Here's some math for you to contemplate. Tom has lost my vote in this election, and probably in future primaries. And if he is unable to attract my vote, you can be sure he will not win an election in California for a state-wide office. The reason he did not attract my vote is that in 20 years as a politician, he has not shown himself to be such a political leader as to win a statewide vote requiring only a plurality. If Arnold had never entered the race, I seriously doubt Tom would be leading; it would just be someone else. He just doesn't have the leadership skills to attract a broad base of support. I went to an Arnold rally next week and stood next to a Latina woman with her teenage daughter who had driven over an hour to be at the rally at 7:30 AM, and she did so because she is sick of Dem tax and spend policies, when she is working overtime every week trying to support her children as a divorced parent. She is a registered Democrat, but she sees a reason to be confident that she can believe Arnold will actually bring the leadership necessary to bring some fair treatment and understanding to hard working people in her situation.

I am talking LITERAL survival. Didn't you ever hear of 911?

The non sequitur may be easy, but it's worthless. I highly recommend a dose of rationality.

McClintock can WIN.... not the election... he can win a little honor and respect for republicans in that state.

TO THEMSELVES !...

Other that that the pubbie party in Cali is Doofusville..

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